Since Pac-12 play began, it’s felt like the Arizona State Sun Devils (14-8, 5-4 Pac-12) have been playing with their backs against the wall, especially given the “NCAA tournament or bust” standard the program has for itself based on the past two seasons.
After losing three of their first four conference bouts, coach Bobby Hurley remained optimistic, pointing out that ASU had as difficult a start to conference play as anyone with three straight road games, two of which were against ranked opponents.
Since then, the Sun Devils have gone 4-1, not only validating Hurley’s belief in his team but keeping a first-round bye from the Pac-12 tournament (earned by the top 4 teams in conference play) within their control.
Despite the momentum, ASU possesses, two teams are still ahead of them for that coveted fourth-place slot in the Pac-12 standings. Coincidentally, these are also the next two teams on the Sun Devils schedule.
Their next road game will be at the Stanford Cardinal, who they’re tied with for fifth based on conference record, and are technically behind based on Stanford’s superior overall record.
But first up will be the USC Trojans (17-6, 6-4), who will come to Tempe Saturday night trying to snap a two-game skid by ending ASU’s two-game win streak. Obviously, the Sun Devils still have a game-in-hand on their Southern California rivals, which gives them that much more leverage in the standings if they can win Saturday and clinch their first Pac-12 series sweep of the new decade.
If recent history is any indication, however, a victory will not come easy regardless of which squad comes away on top. Much like the Sun Devils past four results against the UCLA Bruins, their past four matchups with the Trojans have all followed a similar script to each other.
In 2019, the Sun Devils lost by two on the road. In 2018, they won by two at home. In 2017, ASU won by one at home after losing by three on the road just over a month earlier. It’s hard to think there are any other two teams in the conference that have a smaller cumulative margin of victory between them in their previous four matchups while also splitting those matchups at two apiece.
Given both teams’ similar inconsistencies this season, the expectation should be nothing less than a down-to-the-wire finish, and who knows, maybe this time whoever wins can do so by more than one basket.
Why Arizona State Can Win: Other than playing at home, where the Sun Devils improved to 9-2 with Thursday night’s beatdown of UCLA, their trio of top guards are all hitting a stride and collectively playing at their highest level so far this season. During this five-game winning stretch, the only time Remy Martin, Alonzo Verge Jr. and Rob Edwards did not all score in double figures was when Verge scored nine against Utah, which was five games ago.
As a matter of fact, that was his highest scoring output at that point, five games into conference play, but clearly served as a building block for the next four games. This culminated in his game-high 26 points on 10-for-16 shooting from the field in that victory over the Bruins, which Hurley called his best offensive performance of the season. As I alluded to in my game story from Thursday, the recent performance of these three is arguably the best stretch of games ASU has seen from its own three shooters since the days of “Guard U.” Everyone who followed that 2017-18 team remembers how they were capable of beating anyone on any given night—the same way they were capable of losing to anyone on any night—but the additional support from the frontcourt to this year’s team during its recent stretch of success is what has Sun Devil fans thinking big.
Junior forward Romello White continues to be reliable down low, grabbing 16 rebounds (one short of tying season-high) in the victory over the Bruins to take back the conference lead in rebounding, at 9.3 per game. But when guys like junior forward Khalid Thomas come out of the woodwork to put up 19 points over a two-game stretch, then junior forward Kimani Lawrence gets the team going early by knocking down three triples, eventually finishing with 11 points, look out. The last pair of Sun Devil victories may have been against lower-level opponents by Pac-12 standards, considering Jalen Hill was injured for UCLA, but ASU just played two of their most complete games in victories where they scored 80+. Until there’s reason to believe otherwise, it seems ASU has raised its level of play in the month of February, and although it’s a small sample size, they proved in the Territorial Cup victory they can win close games against strong teams at home too.
Why USC Can Win: Although ASU has a burgeoning frontcourt centered around a strong and consistent presence in White, the Trojans seem like they have the upper-hand in this department based on the consistency of their performance throughout the season. After all, USC had won five of six games—with the only loss coming in double overtime at Oregon—prior to their current two-game slide, both losses to ranked teams (78-57 vs. Colorado, most recently 85-80 at Arizona).
Through all the ups and downs, USC has been able to count on true freshman, 6’9’’ forward Onyeka Okongwu, who will give White, Graham and anyone else matching up with him for ASU all they can handle. Okongwu ranks among the best in the conference with his 17 points per game (8th), nine rebounds per game (T-2nd)—including 3.4 offensive rebounds per game (1st by 0.5 rebounds)—as well as his three blocks per game (2nd) and 60.8 field goal percentage (3rd). He has only not scored in double figures twice in the 22 games he’s played, and has nine double-doubles (White has seven for reference), the best of which—no offense to White—are in a class of their own, as four of them saw him score at least 23 points.
As if Okongwu isn’t enough, the Trojans also boast 6’11’’ senior forward Nick Rakocevic, who is the team’s third-leading scorer at 11.3 points per game, and is right behind his freshman teammate, averaging 8.5 rebounds per contest. He got the Sun Devils for 15 points and nine rebounds in last season’s two-point victory over them, and although he started Pac-12 play slow this year, he has scored double figures in three of his last four games, a stretch in which he’s also averaged 8.25 boards per game.
Lastly, considering ASU’s penchant over the past two years for allowing random big men to have their game of the year against them, it’s worth mentioning the name, Isaiah Mobley, a 6’10’’ true freshman forward for USC. He averages seven points a game and 5.3 rebounds, and can contribute off the bench, like when he blocked two shots in 11 minutes on the floor in their most recent victory, against Utah.
Overall, the Trojans are the top rebounding team in the conference with 38.6 per game, and similar to UCLA, they have a knack for crashing the offensive glass, averaging 11 per game (T-2nd). They also average 5.3 blocks per contest, which although third in the Pac-12 is tied for 17th in the NCAA (this makes them one of three Pac-12 teams in the top 20 of those categories, along with Washington and Oregon State). Long story short, this team has advantages where the Sun Devils are still developing, and USC has much more capability to exploit that than OSU or UW.
Key Figure: 82- This seems to be the magic point total for the Sun Devils, as they’ve scored at least this many points in four of their five conference victories this season, with the lone exception being the thrilling, last-second victory at home in the Territorial Cup. To go off that, ASU is 1-4 when scoring fewer points, although to be transparent they scored less than 70 points on all five of those occasions.
This is far from a knock on ASU’s defense—which has been one of the better aspects of the team this season and has improved lately—as in two of those four victories the Sun Devils also held their opponent under 67 points. It does show, however, that this team has a better chance to win the higher scoring game it is in general. Saturday night’s contest should be no different, as ASU may need to find itself shooting three-pointers to counterbalance USC’s prowess in the paint if they want to continue their current winning stretch.
X-Factor: Jonah Mathews – USC’s 6’3’’ senior guard, currently second on the team in scoring at 12.6 points per game, has been the most noticeable x-factor for the Trojans on their good and bad nights over the past month. Contain him under 12 points, and recent results say you have a strong chance at beating the Trojans. Let him exceed his scoring average, however, and the tides turn the other way. Before USC’s aforementioned run of winning five out of six games, they lost to Washington—now just barely over a month ago—handing the Huskies one of their two wins in conference play. Mathews had five points on 2-for-7 shooting, including 1-for-5 on threes.
Over the six-game winning stretch that followed, Mathews averaged 16 points per game, shooting 41 percent from the field (28-for-68) and from three (14-for-34), never scoring less than 13 points. Over USC’s current two-game slide, he’s scored 17 points combined while shooting 24 percent (6-for-25) from the field and 30 percent from three (3-for-10). As formidable as USC’s frontcourt is, watch out for Mathews, as ASU’s ability to contain him could loom large in the outcome of this game.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona State- 79, USC- 77
Game Info:
When: 8:00 P.M. MST, Saturday
Where: Desert Financial Arena (Tempe)
TV/Radio: FS1 / KMVP 98.7 (Tim Healey/Kyle Dodd)
