ASU baseball season-ending stock report
A week removed from the end of the season and the MLB Draft behind, we take a look at who’s (or what’s) stock rose or fell as well as what to take a “wait and see” approach on.
STOCK WENT UP
*FRESHMAN BATS: It wasn’t all Spencer Torkelson. Though the first baseman, who was named the co-National Freshman of the Year by College Baseball Newspaper on Wednesday, led the group of newcomers during a record-breaking campaign with 25 home runs, 53 RBIs and a .320 batting average, ASU’s other first-year hitters showed promise too.
Third baseman Gage Workman was consistent all year. He finished with .276 average and the team’s third-highest slugging percentage (.466) among qualified hitters. Middle infielder Alika Williams closed the year strong after an early slump, finishing with a .280 batting average and 20 RBIs. After cracking the starting lineup midway through the year, Hunter Jump raked his way to a .370 batting average (though he did not have enough at-bats to be a qualified hitter). Even Drew Swift, who hit just .201, drew the second-most walks on the team and had a .321 on-base percentage.
Junior center fielder Gage Canning might be the only piece of the lineup – which had the second-best batting average in the Pac-12 this season – not coming back next year. His loss will be felt but ASU is shaping up to have one of the stronger offenses in the conference in 2019.
*ALEC MARSH: In a year lean on quality pitching, Alec Marsh was one of the bright spots for the Sun Devils. Forced not just into a starting role but the team’s Friday night slot by injuries and underperformance from the rest of the staff, Marsh pitched admirably. In 15 appearances (12 starts) this year, he went 3-3 with a 3.89 ERA, becoming just the fifth pitcher in the Tracy Smith tenure to have at least a dozen starts and a sub-4 ERA in a season.
It looks like he will have the chance to compete for a starting job again in 2019 too. He added a fifth pitch, the slider, in the middle of the season and was at times dominant, especially when commanding his fastball. He had a K/9 of 8.09 and a batting average against of just .232, allowing the sixth-fewest hits in the conference among qualified pitchers.
He could make a very strong No. 3 option or midweek starter in the rotation next year, especially after Eli Lingos’ graduation.
*HOME RUNS: ASU slugged 50 home runs this season, the most the Sun Devils have had in a single year since they hit 68 in 2010. The program hadn’t hit 40 homers in a season since 2013. Next year, the home run total could increase too, with the outfield fences at Phoenix Municipal Stadium set to be moved in by as much as 20 feet.
Coach Tracy Smith said he thinks the smaller field dimensions will help his team and better fits the profile of his roster. Both he and some of his players mentioned this year how the instant offense provided by home runs helped spark the young lineup.
Something of note, however: ASU went just 12-19 in games it hit home runs (including a 3-3 mark in games it had three or more dingers) and 11-13 in games it didn’t.
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STOCK FELL
*RELIEF PITCHING: While ASU’s starting pitching wasn’t great, the Sun Devils at least had found a reliable rotation bookended by Alec Marsh and Eli Lingos. ASU’s bullpen, on the other, was a mess all season. Before the year began, upperclassmen like Connor Higgins, Grant Schneider, and Jake Godfrey figured to be key members on the back end. That didn’t pan out.
Sophomore Chaz Montoya was good for a while (he had five saves and a 0.68 ERA through his first nine appearances of the year) but sputtered down the stretch and ended the season with a 1-7 record and a 4.41 ERA.
Redshirt freshman Dellan Raish was ASU’s best relief arm for the second half of the season and finished the year with a team-best 3.00 ERA in 42 innings. But a heavy workload and sore arm forced him to miss the final two weeks of the season.
Going into 2019, Raish, Montoya, Sam Romero, Brady Corrigan and Spencer Van Scoyoc might be ASU’s best returning options in the bullpen (Higgins and Fitz Stadler were both drafted and might turn pro). Though a pitcher-heavy recruiting class is on its way to Tempe, it’s difficult to glean much confidence from the group after such an alarming 2018 campaign.
*DEFENSE: Tracy Smith was blunt when evaluating his team’s defense after the final game of the season. “We didn’t improve at all in that area,” he said.
It was true. Out of the 297 teams in Division I college baseball, ASU’s fielding percentage ranked 230th. The team committed 77 errors this year, 20 more than the second-worst defensive team in the Pac-12, Utah. Seven different Sun Devils made five or more errors. Every pitcher with at least 24 innings of work had an error, aside from Dellan Raish.
All too often, defensive breakdowns would create critical momentum swings in games. They were insurmountable mistakes.
There is no guarantee ASU will be better in the field in 2019 either. It’s best defensive player, Gage Canning (and his career .995 fielding percentage), will be gone. Meanwhile, the rest of the defense should will likely be the same, save the return of catcher Sam Ferri – who missed all of 2018 with injury after having a .976 fielding percentage in 2017 – and the potential inclusion of transfer Cole Austin, who had a dismal .948 fielding percentage in two seasons at West Virginia.
Smith has said he thinks his young roster will outgrow some of the simple mistakes that plagued the 2018 season. But, after finishing this season with a .964 fielding percentage (the team’s worst since 2001) improvement with obvious defense fundamentals will be paramount too.
*FAN APPROVAL: It’s difficult to evaluate ASU baseball without acknowledging the tidal wave of unrest sweeping through the program’s passionate fan base. After the worst two-year stretch in school history, many Sun Devils supporters (and a very vocal group on social media) were hoping for a coaching change. Instead, Ray Anderson kept Tracy Smith on board for a fifth season.
To this point, discord has been mostly restricted to the internet. There were only a handful of occasions this past season that saw the home crowd turn bitter towards the Sun Devils. That might not be the case if ASU suffers a third-straight disappointing season in 2019.
As Anderson said during his press conference last week: “2019, very frankly, is a very important year for us. We expect to see significant improvement.”
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WAIT AND SEE
*PLAYERS PICKED IN MLB DRAFT: This much we know so far. Gage Canning is almost certainly going to sign with Washington as a fifth-round pick and signee Connor Van Scoyoc (little brother of Spencer) will also forgo college at ASU and turn pro.
Beyond those two, ASU is still waiting to learn the futures of some potentially important players.
Catcher Lyle Lin didn’t get picked until the 29th round by the Houston Astros in this week’s MLB Draft. Had he been selected earlier, there was a strong chance he would sign with a big league club. But after being taken in the later rounds, there’s a much stronger chance he might be back in Tempe for his junior year.
Incoming junior college transfer pitcher Tyler McKay was picked in the 16th round by Philadelphia and is currently in the process of making his decision on whether to turn pro or not, his coach at Howard College, Rob Martinez, told Devils Digest.
McKay is a lengthy 6-foot-6 pitcher with a fastball that sits around 90 MPH, a hard-breaking slider, and reliable changeup. Martinez thinks McKay is capable of being a starting pitcher with the Sun Devils if he follows through with his commitment to ASU.
ASU relievers Fitz Stadler (18th round, Toronto) and Connor Higgins (30th round, Los Angeles Angels) are also Sun Devils juniors who were picked and will have to decide whether to turn pro or not.
*BOYD VANDER KOOI: In a freshman season limited by injuries, Boyd Vander Kooi looked sharp in his handful of appearances in 2018. In five starts this year, Vander Kooi went 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA and struck out 25 batters in 27 2/3 innings.
An arm injury kept Vander Kooi sidelined for over a month though before he finished the season with five straight relief appearances.
Tracy Smith fully expects Vander Kooi to be the team’s Friday night starter in 2019. With a wicked combo of four-seam and two-seam fastballs complemented by a curveball and changeup, the rising sophomore has the stuff of a No. 1 pitcher in the Pac-12.
He’s light on experience though.
In two games against Pac-12 opponents last year, Vander Kooi (who was battling with a nagging injury in both appearances) didn’t pitch more than five innings in either appearance and gave up seven earned runs against UCLA.
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ROSTER NOTES/PROJECTED LINEUP
*Pitchers Adisyn Coffey and Drake Davis and outfielder Scott Mehan are all no longer with the program, joining former reliever Zane Strand as players who parted ways with the team during the 2018 season.
*The aforementioned Cole Austin will be eligible to play after sitting out the 2018 season as a result of his transfer from West Virginia.
*Assuming Lyle Lin and Tyler McKay don’t turn pro and play at ASU next season, here is a way-too-early projection of what ASU’s lineup and rotation might look like:
C – Lyle Lin/Sam Ferri
1B – Cole Austin
2B – Drew Swift
3B – Gage Workman
SS – Alika Williams
LF – Spencer Torkelson
CF – Hunter Bishop
RF – Carter Aldrete
DH – Hunter Jump
SP1 – Boyd Vander Kooi
SP2 – Tyler McKay
SP3 – Darius Vines
SP4 – Alec Marsh
CL – Dellan Raish
