Coming into last weekend, few could have guessed ASU, ranked No. 2 in the conference at the time, ultimately miss out on a first-round bye in the Big 12 Tournament. The Sun Devils only needed one win to secure that extra day of rest, yet after three consecutive losses, they dropped to No. 5 in the conference — setting them on a much tougher path through the tournament than anyone expected.
ASU would have been more likely to believe they’d win three straight against Oklahoma State—securing the conference title after West Virginia was swept—rather than exit Stillwater worrying about a first-round matchup. Yet here we are: ASU will face BYU in Arlington, Texas, on May 21, opening the Big 12 tournament as the very first game on the schedule.
By being the first team out of the first-round bye group, ASU gets to face the lowest seed to start the tournament—the Cougars. It’s a favorable matchup for ASU, who swept BYU at the end of April, outscoring them 36-13 in three games. The highlight came in their 16-6 mercy rule victory on April 26, when the Sun Devils set two school records for home runs in an inning and in a game.
One message head coach Willie Bloomquist has emphasized all season is that there are no bad teams in the Big 12. Only two of the 14 teams finished with a losing overall record. Even teams like UCF—often labeled as ‘bottom of the barrel’ in the Big 12—finished 9–21 in conference play but still managed a respectable 29–26 overall record.
BYU fits that profile as well, holding a poor 10-20 conference record but still managing a respectable 27-26 overall. Granted, many of those wins came early in non-conference play and generally against much inferior opponents, but you’d still expect the 12th-place team in the conference to struggle more consistently throughout the entirety of the season.
Even within conference play, BYU faced a grueling schedule, playing six of the top seven Big 12 teams by conference record—including the top six. ASU, by comparison, avoided facing the conference leader, West Virginia. Despite this tough slate, BYU managed to pick up single wins against West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas State, and Arizona, along with series victories over Cincinnati—who ASU lost a series to—and Texas Tech, a team that performed better in conference play than overall.
The point isn’t to paint BYU as a hidden gem or sleeper with an undeserved reputation but rather to show that on any given day, they can compete with anyone in the conference. Teams like Houston and Baylor have demonstrated that ASU can be vulnerable when caught off guard, and therefore, BYU has the same potential for an upset.
Where BYU really surprises is with their bats. Despite their record, they’ve posted a strong team OPS of .860 and sit tied for fifth in runs scored in the Big 12—just one run shy of fourth place. You wouldn’t expect it looking at their overall record, but this team has swung with the best in the conference, ranking tied for fifth in doubles, third in triples, and seventh in home runs.
Like ASU, the Cougars don’t have many weak spots in their lineup, with six qualified players posting an OPS over .850 and, like ASU, three players hitting double-digit home runs. One standout is senior infielder Cooper Vest, who leads the team in nearly every major offensive category among qualified players, including a team-high 16 home runs. In the recent series against ASU, Vest collected three hits—including a home run—in a game ASU ultimately won by eight. Shutting down Vest’s bat would significantly improve ASU’s chances in what could be an offensive shootout.
BYU is also a team that finds ways to get on base by any means necessary and knows how to work counts. They rank fifth in walks and eighth in overall on-base percentage. Players like junior catcher Easton Jones, who ranks ninth in the Big 12 in OBP, help fuel that approach. The Cougars also sit second in the conference in hit-by-pitches—though that may be a bit fluky, with Utah and UCF also landing in the top three of that category.
That patience at the plate comes with a downside, though. While they get themselves into counts to walk, they also find themselves deep in counts that lead to strikeouts, leading the Big 12 in that category. ASU, a team that leads the conference in pitching strikeouts by over 100, took full advantage of that in their series against the Cougars, striking them out 42 times across three games. ASU’s ability to generate swing-and-miss outs will likely be the key to shutting down BYU’s offense once again.
Losses like their 16-19 defeat to West Virginia and 12-13 setback against TCU are clear markers of where BYU’s season fell apart and highlight the root of their poor conference play. Much like last season’s Sun Devils—who struggled mightily with pitching but remained somewhat competitive—BYU ranks dead last in the Big 12 in ERA.
Last season, ASU kept their ERA within range of other struggling pitching teams, but BYU hasn’t been able to do the same this year. Their team ERA sits at a staggering 7.22—well above the next closest team, Texas Tech, at 6.54, a significant gap of .66. That ERA ranks 229th out of 299 teams nationally. With a pitching staff that can’t be trusted to keep games close, BYU’s bats have had no choice but to put up some of the top offensive numbers in the conference just to remain competitive.
When it comes to starting pitching, BYU has limited reliable options. Their top two pitchers by innings pitched both carry ERAs in the 8's, making it likely they’ll look elsewhere for a one-game tournament matchup. One possible choice is sophomore left-hander Justis Reiser, who has started four of the last five opening series games against Big 12 opponents—mostly in an “opener” role coming out of the bullpen. In his start against ASU, Reiser threw two innings, allowing four hits and one earned run.
BYU will likely rely on some form of opener from among the seven relief pitchers who have made starts this season. Their third starter, sophomore right-hander Payton Gubler, has a “low” 5.98 ERA across 55.2 innings—a solid mark among a staff that has struggled much worse. However, Gubler hasn’t recorded an out in May, appearing just once, which suggests he may be dealing with an injury.
The game plan for ASU won’t change from their recent series against the Cougars: score in bunches and leave BYU no chance to keep up. While the Cougars have shown they can hang with some of the Big 12’s best offenses, their pitching has consistently been their downfall—unable to hold leads or limit damage.
It sounds simple, but if ASU’s offense looks anything like it did in the Oklahoma State series, where runs were hard to come by, the chance for a BYU upset becomes possible, and ASU’s season could come to a sudden end in what would be a heartbreaking collapse year where Bloomquist has posted his best mark in his Teme tenure, currently at 35-21.
If Arizona State can take care of business in their favored first-round matchup against BYU, they'll earn a high-stakes showdown with their in-state rivals, the Arizona Wildcats. ASU is just 1–3 against Arizona this season, with the Wildcats asserting themselves as the stronger team in the Grand Canyon State. However, the last time these two teams met, ASU was still finding its identity. Since then, the Sun Devils have elevated their play—at least until a recent stumble this past weekend. Still, their bounce-back mentality will be critical against BYU and could be the spark they need to reignite their momentum heading into a potential rematch with Arizona.
First pitch for the BYU contest is scheduled for 7 am. On Wednesday, May 21, and will air on ESPN+
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