Explaining Arizona State’s confounding season is no simple task.

During a historic 12-0 non-conference slate, coach Bobby Hurley credited his team’s experience, freedom of play and stubborn perseverance as reasons for the best season start in school history. In recent weeks, however, Hurley has struggled to diagnose the reasons for the 16th-ranked Sun Devils’ slide in conference play. He blamed himself for not preparing his group for zone defenses, preached that midseason slumps happen to virtually all teams, and trusted that his senior guards would eventually break ASU out of its weeks-long lull.

ASU’s two-game split in the Bay Area this weekend looked little like its non-conference conquering of power conference schools, however, as the Sun Devils dropped further behind Arizona in their increasingly futile hunt for a Pac-12 title.

Drop-offs this severe – ASU will likely drop outside the top-20 less than a month after reaching No. 3 in the polls – are not easily explained. But an evaluation of ASU’s stats reveals some critical discrepancies and an unending strife between the Sun Devils electric pre-conference performances and its current struggles in Pac-12 play.

*Note: The below stats compare ASU’s six non-conference games against “major” opponents (San Diego State, Kansas State, Xavier, St. John’s, Kansas, Vanderbilt) to its first seven games in the league. All stats were retrieved from ESPN and sportsreference.com.

MORE THAN JUST 3-POINT SHOOTING

Once a point-scoring machine, ASU’s offense has sputtered since Christmas. The Sun Devils scored in droves prior to their Pac-12 opener including impressive efforts against highly-touted opposition. In their six games against “major” non-conference opponents (SDSU, KSU, Xavier, SJU, KU Vanderbilt), the Sun Devils totaled nearly 90 points on average.

It was good times at Guard U.

Much was made (rightfully so) about ASU’s remarkable shooting from behind the arc during its early-season spike in the rankings, making 40 percent of its 3-pointers in its dozen non-conference. Against the six power programs it faced, ASU poured in nearly 10 shots from distance on average, highlighted by an outburst of 14 makes from deep against Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, a season high.

The Sun Devils also had an uncanny ability to make contested looks, turning otherwise bad attempts into momentum-shifting moments: Kodi Justice’s 4 three-pointers against Kansas State, Shannon Evans’ game-clinching triple at Kansas and Tra Holder’s halftime buzzer-beater against Vanderbilt, among others.

So, as ASU’s guards have cooled off – especially from downtown – it stands to reason that their 3-point shooting woes are the No. 1 reason for the Sun Devils’ midseason regression.

But, ASU’s issues from inside the perimeter have created as many, if not more, challenges for its once high-flying offense.

While the Devils’ 3-point shooting has come back to earth in the Pac-12 (36 percent in league play), ASU’s 2-point shooting has plummeted. Against the six “major” programs ASU faced in non-conference, the Sun Devils made 57 percent of their 2-point tries. In conference play though, that number is down to 46 percent.

Translation: easy buckets inside aren’t coming so easily for the Sun Devils anymore.

There are plenty of reasons for the close-range drop-off. The abundance of opposing zone defenses has kept big men Romello White and De’Quon Lake under wraps; in the 6 "major" non-conference games (where the duo faced its toughest pre-Pac-12 opposition), White averaged 14.3 points and 63 percent FG shooting, numbers that have since dropped to below 8 ppg and 50 percent shooting in the Pac-12. Similar story for Lake, whose production in those areas has dropped off from 6.3 ppg to 4.8 ppg and from 82 percent shooting to 63 percent shooting.

But it isn’t just the forwards who have lost their potency around the rim.

ASU’s guards, specifically Holder and Evans, have been unable to supplement their perimeter game with reliable drives to the rim, a result of facing longer defenders and an increased volume of zone looks. Holder shot 46 percent combined against SDSU, KSU, Xavier, SJU, KU and Vanderbilt from 2-point land prior to Pac-12 play, but has connected on only 33 percent of his tries from inside the arc in the league. Evans has backslid from 47 percent 2-point shooting in those games to 39 percent in the Pac-12.

While those two seniors have seen a drop-off in 3-point shooting as well -- both were draining better than 40 percent of their 3-pointers in non-conference -- a regression to the mean (each are only career 36-percent long ball shooters) is hardly surprising and likely could have been sustained given ASU’s almost plus-20 scoring margin before the turn of the calendar.

But, successful layups, floaters, and mid-range jumpers have also eluded the dynamic duo lately, rendering the Sun Devils backcourt ineffective for extended stretches during recent games and keeping ASU from achieving explosive scoring spurts that were a staple of its perfect start to the year.

Effective ball movement has also disappeared within ASU’s offense at times, which has lately been forced to operate more out of a stationary half-court set-up than it did in the wheel-and-deal days of November and December. Holder was averaging close to 5 assists per game in the non-conference but has managed barely 2 helpers on average since. As a team, ASU is averaging almost 4 fewer assists per game in the conference as well.

Takeaway: A 3-point shooting slump certainly hasn’t helped ASU’s case, but the Sun Devils lack of dependable scoring around the rim has proven just as costly to its offensive slump since the beginning of Pac-12 play.

REBOUNDING

ASU’s ability on the glass was one of the biggest question marks for this year’s team back in the preseason. Though the Sun Devils added sizeable options in White and Lake, neither had any DI experience; and that was before depth center Ramon Villa transferred away from the program.

But White and Lake turned made the uncertainty a non-issue from the season's first two games as the duo combined for 30 rebounds, setting the stage for a non-conference campaign that saw the Sun Devils win the board-battle in all but one of its six games against the major out-of-league competition.

But as the schedule has changed, so too has ASU’s success on the glass. The Sun Devils have outrebounded their opponents just twice in the Pac-12 and were hammered by a talented Stanford frontcourt on Thursday, though did recover to out-rebound Cal on Saturday, 39-30.

It’s a two-fold problem for ASU. Not only are the Sun Devils more frequently losing rebounding battles (ASU is collecting 2 percent fewer available rebounds in conference play than against its major six non-conference opponents), but there have been more missed shots up for grabs thanks to ASU’s aforementioned shooting slumps. More missed shots equal more opportunities to grab (or give up) a rebound.

A consequential result: ASU is allowing more than 12 second-chance points on average in league play, a key culprit in several of ASU’s Pac-12 defeats (UA scored 13 second-chance points, Colorado scored 19, Oregon scored 15).

Not surprisingly, these interior issues for ASU have popped up since the Sun Devils began facing more dominant frontcourts. Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford all held noticeable advantages over the Sun Devils down low, something few (if any) of ASU’s non-conference opponents could claim.

Takeaway: Not only is ASU struggling to match the Pac-12’s talented array of frontcourts, but it is being forced into more unfavorable rebounding situations as well because of the growing volume of missed shots from ASU’s offense.

HOW ASU CAN TURN THINGS AROUND

Numbers can reveal a lot, but they can also change in a hurry. For ASU, any late season resurrection will be because of a return to form in the backcourt.

The Sun Devils senior guards should have enough experience to adapt to the unique challenges presented by Pac-12 competition and eventually bypass the obstacles that have derailed the team’s once-magical trajectory.

As a team, rediscovering its streaky 3-point shooting stroke, reestablishing a scoring presence inside the arc and rebounding competitively to negate fatal second-chance opportunities could spur critical improvements to ASU's performance down the stretch.

Against Cal, the Sun Devils sped the game up, forcing the Bears to play at the pace ASU excelled at prior to the New Year. Bench contributors Mickey Mitchell (12 points, 11 rebounds), Kimani Lawrence (7 points), Remy Martin (13 points) and De’Quon Lake (9 points) helped the Sun Devils outscore the Cal reserves 41-10.

But, Holder (13 points), Evans (10 points) and Justice (3 points) were kept quiet, allowing the last-placed Golden Bears to mount an unsuccessful second-half rally.

The good news for the Sun Devils: seven of their final 11 regular season games will be at home, where ASU would still be undefeated had it not blown a 13-point lead to Oregon earlier this month. At Wells Fargo Arena this year, ASU is averaging 90 points and 50 percent FG shooting.

Maybe the return to Tempe will help ASU’s guards snap out of their scoring slumps, provide the Sun Devils bigs with the energy to break down zone defenses and produce more from the post while also create the quicker-paced games that ASU thrives in.

By beating Cal, the Sun Devils season avoided a drop into an all-out free fall but was still far from ASU's most impressive version of itself. The style of play that cultivated ASU’s unprecedented non-conference run might not be feasible against better-prepared Pac-12 teams. The Sun Devils might need to adapt their skills to fit the demands of league play or waste the greatest start the program has ever known.