The margin of error for ASU to clinch bowl eligibility is now officially zero, as the Sun Devils will attempt to win their last three games of the regular season in order to have a postseason. And they probably couldn’t not have asked for a tougher start to this crucial slate as they head to frigid Pullman to face Washington State, a team that has flipped the script in terms of their typical strength and weaknesses.
Washington State Offense
Following the transfer departure of staring quarterback Jayden de Laura, Washington State found his replacement in the transfer portal in the form of high-potential FCS transfer Cameron Ward from Incarnate Word, a Southland Conference program from San Antonio.
Ward spent the 2020-2021 seasons at Incarnate Word, and last year he was a Second-Team FCS All-American after throwing for 4,648 yards with 47 touchdowns.
This season, Ward has had a successful though somewhat inconsistent season as he averages 262.2 passing yards per game while completing 64.1% of his passes with 19 touchdown throws and eight interceptions.
He also has 244 gross rushing yards, showing a general ability to move in and out of the pocket, but sacks have cost him 210 lost yards, so he only has 34 net rushing yards with three touchdown runs on the year.
This season, he has three games with over 300 passing yards and a fourth with 299, including a season-high 375 passing yards versus Oregon. He also has three games with at least three touchdown passes but also three games with multiple interceptions. In his last four games, however, he has a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has also rushed for two scores in that span – though WSU is 1-3 in those four games.
After missing two games due to injury, running back Nakia Watson, a former Wisconsin transfer, returned in emphatic fashion last week, rushing for a career-high 166 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown against Stanford.
On the year, Watson has 80 carries for 491 yards (6.1 avg.) with three scores along with 15 catches for 177 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He also had a 100-yard effort in the season opener against Idaho when he had 18 carries for 117 yards and combined for 104 rushing and receiving yards against Oregon.
Jaylen Jenkins has 47 carries for 322 yards and a touchdown as a backup to Watson and spot starter in his absence, but injury concerns make his availability unknown for Saturday.
Always boasting a talented if slightly unknown group of wide receivers, WSU’s group this year features starters De’Zhaun Sterling as well as Donovan Ollie as well as Renard Bell or Robert Ferrel at one spot, and Leyton Smithson or Lincoln Victor at another.
Stribling has team-highs of 448 receiving yards and five touchdowns this season while also tying for the team-high with 36 catches.
Ferrel, who essentially followed Ward to WSU as a transfer from Incarnate Word, has missed two games but still ties Stribling for the squad best with 36 receptions, adding 406 yards and three touchdowns. Ollie has 35 receptions for 373 yards with three scores, and Bell, a seventh-year senior, has missed three games this year but has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two scores.
Smithson has 16 receptions for 145 tards, and Victor has 14 catches for 153 yards.
Different from most recent years of Wazzu football, the team uses tight ends this year, with Billy Riviere III as the top option at that position. Riviere has nine catches for 84 yards with one touchdown on the year.
The Cougar offensive line figures to start either Jack Wilson or Christian Hilborn at left tackle, either Hilborn or Ma’ake Fifita at left guard, Konner Gomness at center, Grant Stephens at right guard, and Fa’alili Fa’amoe at right tackle.
Hilborn has started the first nine games at left guard, but Jarrett Kingston, the starter at left tackle for each of the first nine games, suffered a season-ending injury last weekend against Stanford.
Gomness has started all nine games at center, Stephens has eight starts at right guard, and Fa’amoe has started the last three contests at right tackle. Fifita started the first six games at right tackle and the seventh game of the season at right guard.
If Wilson, a former walk-on, gets the start against ASU, it will be his first career collegiate start.
Washington State Offense Summary
Though the team has shown flashes of offensive prowess, including a 52-point outburst last week, this surely isn’t the level of the Mike Leach passing attack, as WSU ranks seventh in the Pac-12 in pass offense at 265.8 passing yards per game while ranking 11th in the league in rush offense (108.2.) to rank 11th in the Pac-12 in total offense (374.0) and ninth in scoring offense (26.8).
This has surely been an up-and-down scoring offense, as across the nine games WSU has played, the Cougars have scored 38 points or more on three occasions but have been held to 17 or fewer four times.
Though the numbers aren’t as potent as they were in the Mike Leach era at Washington State, Ward is a high-ceiling quarterback with experienced and talented receivers, and, after the last two weeks and especially last week, ASU fans certainly must be concerned that any running back with a pulse can have a 100-yard day against what has become a nightmarish Sun Devil run defense.
Washington State Defense
On defense, the Cougars figure to start tackles Christian Mejia and Antonio Pule III with edges Ron Stone, Jr. and Brennan Jackson.
Jackson, an Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 pick a year ago, leads the way statistically with 31 tackles, including 8.5 for loss with 3.0 sacks. Mejia has 25 tackles, including 4.0 for loss with 1.5 sacks and an interception. Pule has 12 tackles on the year, including a share of a quarterback sack.
Stone, a First-Team All-Pac-12 selection last year, has had a dip in productivity this year with 22 tackles, including 4.0 for loss with 2.0 sacks but has a team-best ten quarterback hurries and also has three pass breakups.
At linebacker, Daiyan Henley will be joined in the starting lineup by either Francisco Mauigoa or Travion Brown.
Henley has team-highs with 85 tackles, including 11.0 for loss with 4.0 sacks, as well as two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and an interception.
Mauigoa ranks fourth on the team in total tackles (52), second in sacks (3.5), and third in TFLs (5.5) while also posting a team-high three forced fumbles. Brown has 37 tackles, including 3.5 for loss with 1.5 sacks.
In the secondary, cornerbacks Chau Smith-Wade and Derrick Langford, Jr. figure to be joined in the starting lineup by free safety Sam Lockett III and either Jordan Lee or Jaden Hicks at strong safety with Armani Marsh at nickel defensive back.
Hicks leads the secondary and ranks second on the team with 58 tackles, including 2.0 for loss with a sack and an interception.
Marsh, an Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 pick in 2021, has 52 tackles, including 3.0 for loss with 2.0 sacks and four pass breakups, while Lockett has 35 tackles with an interception and three pass breakups.
Smith-Wade has 35 tackles, including 2.5 for loss with an interception, two forced fumbles, and a team-best five pass breakups. Lee has 28 tackles, including 3.5 for loss, while Langford has 21 tackles and four pass breakups.
Washington State Defense Summary
Though most will likely associate Washington State with a high-powered offense that lights up the box scores and scoreboards, its defense has taken center stage this season by topping the Pac-12 and ranking 23rd nationally, allowing 20.0 points per game.
Washington State also ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rush defense (122.8), fifth in the league in total defense (361.3), and sixth in pass defense (238.6) while also ranking third in the conference in team sacks (23).
Washington State Special Teams
Kicker Dean Janikowski, the reigning First-Team All-Pac-12 placekicker from 2021, has connected on 8-of-10 field goal attempts this year with a long of 42.
Punter Nick Haberer averages 41.8 yards on 40 punts.
In the return game, Ferrel averages a solid 12.0 yards on 12 punt returns, while Lincoln Victor averages 20.3 yards on 11 kickoff returns, and Renard Bell has a 27.8-yard average on five kick returns.
Overall Summary
Death, taxes, and a mid-to-late November road game (or later) for ASU in the Pacific Northwest.
In fact, you have to go back to the 2013 season to find the last time ASU did not play a November road game at one of the four Pac-12 teams from the states of Oregon or Washington. Even in that season, ASU narrowly escaped a November road trip to the Pacific Northwest when it claimed a Halloween night victory at Washington State. Not since 2015 has ASU played a road game in the Pacific Northwest earlier on the calendar than the date of this weekend’s game, November 12.
Under head coach Jake Dickert, who last year turned an interim head coaching gig after the Nick Rolovich fiasco into a permanent position at Washington State, the Cougars have had a bit of a rollercoaster season as WSU began 4-1, with the only blemish being a close loss to Oregon before dropping three of the next four games.
However, the Cougars come into this game with quite a bit of momentum after a 52-14 destruction of Stanford last weekend, the most points scored by Washington State since a 54-53 win over Oregon State on Nov. 23, 2019.
At 5-4, of course, a win Saturday could claim bowl eligibility for Washington State, while ASU’s microscopic chances at postseason play completely hang in the balance this weekend.
Though on paper, this is a winnable game, ASU will undoubtedly have to make massive corrections on defense – easier said than done – while also finding a way to have an above-average performance against what has been an excellent Cougar scoring defense.
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