Washington Preview
Rob Edwards is no bracketologist. Neither is Bobby Hurley. The last two years, though, have just about given them enough experience to give themselves such a title.
Around this time of year in 2018, and then in 2019, everyone around Arizona State had to speculate if ASU’s resume was enough. All the while, the buzz around the program’s basketball team usually revolved around questions like, ‘What’s their KenPom look like?’ ‘How’s their NET’ ‘What’s Lunardi saying?’
To an extent, that can be frustrating. And taxing. Sure the celebrations and pool party at Hurley’s house were fun, but no one in Tempe who endured the last two Selection Sundays would say they enjoyed it. From Hurley’s experience at Duke, he’ll tell you it's a lot better watching the selection show when you’re only wondering where your name will pop up -- not if it will.
Or as Edwards put it two weeks ago: “We don’t want to be sitting and watching the TV screen, waiting to see if we are going to get our name called for the tournament.”
Before ASU can turn its attention to the NCAA Tournament, it has to think about earning a bye in the Pac-12 Tournament next week.
The Sun Devils are currently third in the Pac-12 standings. To grab a share of the conference crown, UCLA would need to lose to USC and Oregon would need to lose at least once this week. Oh, and ASU would have to win out. That scenario seems unlikely.
But, by beating Washington and Washington State, ASU would guarantee itself a Top 4 spot in the conference and, thus, a bye in the conference tournament. If it loses once, and either Colorado loses to Utah or USC falls to UCLA, the Sun Devils would still be safe.
And if they lose both games this weekend? Pray.
“The percentages and the numbers don’t say that it’s something that is in your best interest to be outside of that Top 4,” Hurley said. “It’s tough to win four days in a row. You put yourself in a much stronger position to win a championship if you’re able to have that additional day.”
So let’s take a look at the first leg of an incredibly important weekend for Arizona State.
Why Arizona State Can Win:
For one, ASU has already taken care of Washington, and that was on the road. More recently, though, even though the Sun Devils dropped both games last weekend, they played really well and took two of the best teams in the conference to the wire. A made Remy Martin shot here or an Alonzo Verge pass there and the Sun Devils may be on a nine-game winning streak. Nonetheless, the Sun Devils now have film on things to correct -- evidence to get back to moving the ball as they were a month ago and finding ways to funnel the rock to Romello White in the paint. When they do those things, they usually win.
But back to the first meeting against Washington. ASU’s guards thoroughly dominated. Martin had 19. Verge and Edwards both finished with 18. They took advantage of a Quade Green-less backcourt and, despite shooting poorly from beyond the arc, were able to get to the rim. There’s no reason to think they can’t do that a second time, especially now that they’ve already seen the Huskies’ zone once and have a few practices to look at it again.
And for what it’s worth, ASU will face a team that has yet to win a conference road game this season.
“I’m glad that we’re playing them first because we get to practice against their zone a little more because you don’t get to see that too often,” Hurley said.
Why Washington Can Win:
The Huskies have two things that frequently trip up Hurley-led ASU teams -- really good frontcourt players and a well-executed 2-3 zone. We’ll start with the zone. Mike Hopkins obviously brought the scheme to Seattle from his time in Syracuse and though it’s not as effective with guys like Matisse Thybulle, it’s still pretty damaging -- Washington ranks 32nd in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Despite allowing 87 points to ASU in their first meeting, the Sun Devils only shot 28 percent from deep and committed nearly 20 turnovers. If Martin and Verge weren’t so effective getting to the rim, UW probably leaves with a convincing victory.
And then there’s Isaiah Stewart (16.7 ppg // 8.6 rpg) and Jaden McDaniels (12.7 ppg // 5.8 rpg) -- the Huskies stud freshmen forwards who some project to both be lottery picks this summer. With its twin towers of Nick Rakocevic and Onyeka Okongwu, USC gave a beautiful blueprint for Washington on how to 1.) Outrebound ASU with ease 2.) Stifle the Devils’ press by using big men to distribute the ball and set screens. Also, as much as people can scoff at Washington’s 13-16 record, nine of its 13 conference losses have come by less than a half dozen points. So, regardless of the outcome, the Huskies are going to be competitive.
“Washington, I think, they lost their point guard (Quade Green). They’ve been through a lot. They have a lot of top talent. They have two potential lottery picks on their team. Losing their point guard in the middle of the season, it’s hard to recover from that,” Hurley said.
“They’ve had a number of games like that, where they’ve been very competitive and just haven’t been able to win games late.
Key Figure: 1. The Sun Devils have lost just one game (season-opener against Colorado) when they recorded more than 10 assists. Anyone who's watched ASU basketball can tell in about two seconds when the ball is moving. The Sun Devils are scoring. They’re getting open shots. The ball is going down low to White. And they’re usually winning.
X-Factor: Alonzo Verge. In ASU’s losses to UCLA and USC, Verge scored a combined 18 points on 8 of 22 shooting -- his worst weekend output in more than a month. The Sun Devils need Verge to be effective. Not only does it force the defense to key in on another weapon, but when verge is struggling, it’s often because he tries to do everything himself -- as was in the case in L.A.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona State 77, Washington 73
Game Info:
When: 7:00 P.M. MST
Where: Desert Financial Arena
TV/Radio: ESPN2 (Dave Pasch and Bill Walton) / KMVP 98.7 (Tim Healey/Kyle Dodd)
