UCLA Preview
In the 2017-18 season, the Arizona State Sun Devils gave their fans the experience of peaking in the early months of the season, only to plateau over the final months and end up with no postseason victories (conference tournament nor NCAA’s).
Two seasons later, ASU has done just the opposite. After a 12-8 start to the season and 3-4 start in Pac-12 competition, the Sun Devils have rattled off seven straight wins, their longest such streak in conference play in nearly four decades. It has them all but locked into an NCAA tournament berth, although they’ll probably need to win at least three more games between the regular season and conference tournament to ensure they steer clear of another First Four berth.
Over this stretch, ASU (19-8, 10-4 Pac-12) has won each game by an average of 5.7 points per contest. Interestingly, the Sun Devils have won six of those seven contests by five points or less. The one outlier is an 18-point victory over the UCLA Bruins (17-11, 10-5) on February 6 in Tempe, the second of those seven straight wins.
But make no mistake, because the Bruins have turned things around almost just as much as the Sun Devils have, as they’ve won five consecutive contests since that loss. Now, as the two hottest teams in the conference, they will meet on Thursday night in Lose Angeles.
With the Bruins tied alongside two other teams a half-game behind the Sun Devils for first place, it doesn’t exactly tell the whole picture to call this matchup a “battle for first in the Pac-12.”
However, if ASU wins, they maintain their spot as the outright top team. If UCLA comes away on top, they are in all likelihood going to be tied for first with Oregon and/or Colorado, who match up with inferior Oregon State and California, respectively, on Thursday night.
Either way, this showdown between the Sun Devils and Bruins is nothing short of must-watch television for any fan of Pac-12 basketball, and as Bruins coach Mick Cronin jokingly said this week, who didn’t see this coming three short weeks ago?
Why Arizona State Can Win: There hasn’t been much to criticize about ASU’s game recently on a week-to-week basis. Sure, they’ll have some bad shooting performances, but they’ll make up for it with stingy defense such as in the two-point, 66-64 win over USC, or Saturday’s 74-73 victory over Oregon State, in which they didn’t score in the last 2:30 of play. They can also win the high-scoring shootouts, as they proved on the first day of the month with an 87-83 triumph at Washington or the 80-75 defeat of Cal two Sundays ago. Heck, anytime a team comes off a victory with five guys scoring in double figures, as was the case in the most recent win against OSU as well as that first victory of the streak at UW, it shows a different level of confidence and chemistry about a group. On a similar note, the Sun Devils are an impressive 6-3 in road games this season, which includes a 4-3 record when visiting Pac-12 teams. While that doesn’t seem like anything to brag about on the surface, it’s no small feat to be above .500 in conference road games because practically every single college basketball team, in general, is going to play best on its home floor.
Right now, there seems to be no stopping the resurgence of “Guard U,” led by junior guard Remy Martin’s 15 straight double-figure scoring efforts and the nine straight by junior guard Alonzo Verge Jr., including efforts of at least 22 points in two of the last three games. Martin has contributed in other aspects too, averaging just under three rebounds and a tick shy of four assists per game during the win streak. He has been an elite scorer in the conference this entire season, sitting second in the Pac-12 right now, averaging 19.1 points per game, but the emergence of Verge has been something else. Averaging 14.6 points per game, Verge ranks 14th in the conference. He’s 0.7 points ahead of Colorado’s leading scorer in McKinley Wright for that spot, and averages 1.4 more points that UCLA’s top scorer in junior guard Chris Smith.
As if the duo of Martin and Verge wasn’t lethal enough, ASU can look to another pair of players averaging double figures in senior guard Rob Edwards (10.9) and junior forward Romello White (10.5, 60.6 field goal percentage is 2nd in Pac-12). Aside from a 24-point showing against Oregon, Edwards’s highest-scoring output over the past six games was a 13-point showing in the last victory over the Bruins. For White, he’s scored 33 points and grabbed 28 rebounds over the past three contests, and set a conference-high with 16 rebounds the last time he faced UCLA. Adding onto these four scorers, ASU could always get some more scoring from some combination of junior forward Kimani Lawrence, coming off a 14-point game plus scored 11 in the last matchup with the Bruins, junior forward Khalid Thomas, who scored nine against UCLA before, or even the less likely one in senior forward Mickey Mitchell, who put up a season-high eight points a few games ago at Cal. Combine this with the fact that the Sun Devils have forced at least 15 turnovers in four of their last five games (second in Pac-12 with 7.8 steals per game), and it certainly seems like they’re as hard to beat as any Pac-12 team right now.
Why UCLA Can Win: Even though the Bruins lost by 18 when they came to Tempe to play ASU, that loss sparked a turnaround in their season, not dissimilar to the way ASU’s last-second loss at Washington State did in the final game of January. The Bruins have won three of the five contests on their current win streak by double figures, and have won five straight home games, last losing at Pauley Pavilion on January 15. Led by junior guard Chris Smith (13.2 points per game, 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, one steal), freshman point guard Tyger Campbell has also continued to be a consistent contributor in his first full season after redshirting due to a preseason torn ACL. He’s scored at least 12 points in six of his last seven while raising his assists per game average on the season to 4.6 in that stretch, which ranks fourth in the Pac-12.
For Smith, he’s put up 14 points in four of his last five after a subpar, nine-point showing at the Sun Devils. What’s more is he hasn’t missed a free throw in his last four games, with 12 total attempts. He ranks third in the conference with an 86 percent foul shooting percentage. They’ve also gotten contributions from freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. (nine points in each of last two games, plus 17 total rebounds) and sophomore forward Cody Riley (at least 15 points in three of the last four). But perhaps the biggest difference from last game will be sophomore forward Jalen Hill, who was injured when UCLA came to Tempe. A top 10 rebounder (6.9 per game, team-high) and shot-blocker (1.1 per game) in the conference,
Hill has practically kept up his rebounding pace, averaging 6.5 per game over his last six, while shooting 15-for-30 from the field in that span. He will almost certainly ensure that White (tied for Pac-12 leading 9.2 rebounds per game) does not set another conference high for rebounds. After all, UCLA is one spot (0.3) above ASU for fourth in the conference at 36.8 rebounds per game, with a conference-high 11.9 offensive rebounds per contest. Additionally, add in the fact that they tied a season-low for an ASU opponent by only turning the ball over 10 times in their last meeting and it would seem the Bruins have all the chance in the world to earn a season split with the Sun Devils.
Key Figure: 70- If you pick one thing to keep an eye on for this game, make it this one because this applies to the Bruins entire season, conference and non-conference play. When they hold an opponent under 70 points, they have a 16-0 record this season. When UCLA allows its opponent to score at least 70 points, their record drops to 1-11. It’s certainly an eye-opening stat, as they don’t particularly stand out as a team with any defensive statistic. But it seems when they do a solid job of keeping the other team from shooting too well, they are in good shape. When they allow the other team’s shooters to have their way, such as ASU’s 14-for-24 showing from behind the arc in handing UCLA its most recent defeat, they have a much harder time winning.
Therefore, if the Sun Devils can force another shootout type of game despite being on the road, the past results of this season show they have a strong chance of winning. If it’s more of a defensive standoff like ASU’s victories over USC and Arizona at home this season, their win streak will be in great jeopardy.
X-Factor: – Rob Edwards- If you think you’ve seen Edwards on here several times before, you would not be mistaken. As ASU’s top three-point shooter, he will be a key factor in addition to Martin and Verge for the reason just discussed about scoring at least 70 points. While White could certainly step up and be that third big scorer, they’ll need to win this game, he will have his hands full down low battling Hill. Edwards has scored double figures in eight of the last 10 games, of which the Sun Devils have won nine of. The Sun Devils have proven a very deep team, so it’s safe to say they’ll still have a chance to win even if Edwards has an off shooting night. Heck, he combined for 11 points in the team’s road sweep at the Bay area schools two weeks ago. But if he can turn it on as he did for his 24-point game in the upset of the Ducks, ASU becomes near impossible to beat.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona State- 71, UCLA- 68
Game Info:
When: 9:00 P.M. MST
Where: Pauley Pavilion (Los Angeles)
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Networks / KMVP 98.7 (Tim Healey/Kyle Dodd)
