The calendar may show that we are barely in the middle of November, yet ASU is about to play its last home game on the schedule. In a contest where it officially bids adieu to its seniors (and unofficially say goodbye to one particular junior wide receiver) who will play their last game ever at Sun Devil Stadium, Arizona State will host UCLA. On paper, this appears to be as comfortable an opponent you’d like to face when you’re making a run at a Pac-12 South championship. Nonetheless, as we examine the Sun Devils’ Saturday afternoon's foe there are certain aspects to be aware of that can present challenges.
UCLA Offense
It never is easy to replace a ‘lottery’ NFL Draft pick at quarterback and injuries only compound the difficulties. UCLA is a clear example of that as Michigan grad transfer Wilton Speight and true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson have both been in and out of the lineup in attempts to replace Josh Rosen.
Speight opened the season as the starter but was injured in that opening game against Cincinnati, opening the door for Thompson-Robinson to start the next six contests.
Thompson-Robinson then went down early against Arizona, but a steady effort that game for Speight in relief of the freshman in what became a victory for the Bruins placed Speight back in the starting lineup the following week against Utah. However, Thompson-Robinson returned to the starting lineup last week against Oregon but suffered yet another injury that promoted Speight back into the lineup.
In his seven starts, Thompson-Robinson averages 160.3 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns and four interceptions and in those games has completed 57.4 percent of his passes. Thompson-Robinson has just two games with more than 200 passing yards in the 252 he threw against Oklahoma and the 272 he posted against Washington.
Though he was rated the second-best dual-threat quarterback for the 2018 class, Thompson-Robinson has not flashed much prowess on the ground this year as he has just 83 net rushing yards with no touchdowns. He had 49 net rush yards against Fresno State and 27 against California but has only had two other games of positive net yardage.
Speight, on the other hand, has four game appearances and on the season as a whole has thrown for 560 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 55.8 percent of his passes.
Before he relocated to UCLA, Speight appeared in 23 games with 16 starts at Michigan and threw for 3,192 yards with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His best season came in 2016 when he threw for 2,538 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
In all, Thompson-Robinson has seven starts and Speight has two, but it may be a game-time decision as to which quarterback starts against ASU – though Thompson-Robinson is medically cleared to play Saturday. It is very possible that both quarterbacks play against the Sun Devils.
Undoubtedly the most pleasant surprise on the Bruin squad this year is running back Joshua Kelley, a former transfer from UC-Davis who did not see game action in 2017. Over his freshman and sophomore years at the FCS level in 2015-16, Kelley rushed for a total of 1,139 yards and could come close to that mark in just this one season as he averages 102.5 rushing yards per game and has a total of 820 on 146 carries with seven touchdowns.
Kelley has five 100-yard games and enters this week with major momentum as he collected a season-high 161 rushing yards last week in UCLA’s loss to Oregon.
Like his counterpart for ASU on Saturday in Eno Benjamin, Kelley has frequently been targeted as a receiver out of the backfield as he ranks third on the team with 23 catches totaling 162 yards.
Outside of Kelley there is a tremendous drop-off in run game productivity as Kazmeir Allen has 29 carries in eight games and Martell Irby has 35 carries in nine games. The Bruins have had to make multiple adjustments at the position as veterans Bolu Olorunfunmi and Soso Jamabo have been lost to season-ending injuries.
One of the top tight ends in college football, Caleb Wilson has been a constant bright spot as he ranks fourth nationally in receiving yards among tight ends. Altogether, Wilson has caught 36 passes for 554 yards and two touchdowns.
Theo Howard has been the team’s most frequently targeted wide receiver, having totaled 39 catches for 491 yards with a team-high three touchdowns. Demetric Felton has 18 receptions for 189 yards and a score.
Aside from Wilson, Howard, Felton, and Kelley, no Bruin has more than eight receptions on the year.
UCLA does not include a depth chart in its game notes, but Andre James has started all nine games at one tackle spot with Jake Burton having started eight of nine, while Michael Alves and Texas Tech grad transfer Justin Murphy have started all nine games together at the two offensive guard spots. Murphy started at right guard in ASU’s win over Texas Tech in Tempe in 2016 but was injured when the two teams met in Lubbock last year.
Boss Tagaloa, relocated from the defensive line this past spring, has started the last six games at center after serving a three-game suspension to start the year. Tagaloa played 24 games on defense from 2016-17 and totaled 32 tackles last season as a starter in eight of 12 games played.
Offense Summary
Largely impacted by injuries among other issues, UCLA’s offense ranks at or near the bottom of the Pac-12 Conference in many key categories. Entering Saturday, the Bruins rank last in the league and 103rd nationally in total offense (362.8) and last in the conference and 118th in the country in scoring offense (21.2). UCLA also ranks 11th in the league and 88th nationally in pass offense (209.6). On the scoreboards, UCLA has put up 21 or fewer points in six of nine games played and only twice this season has UCLA scored more than 24 points in a single game.
Regardless the starting quarterback, the productivity has been minimal and injury issues are a major concern. The Bruins have a few viable threats in Kelley and Wilson, but greater team issues on offense limit their overall impact.
The Bruins do, however, come to Tempe on the heels of perhaps their best offensive effort of the year as last week against Oregon the team totaled a season-high 496 total yards and had the second highest outputs of the year in both rushing (199 yards) and passing (297). Despite losing by three touchdowns, UCLA actually outgained Oregon by totals of 496 yards to 492.
UCLA Defense
Again, though a depth chart is not provided in the UCLA weekly game notes, in the defensive front Osa Odighizuwa, Atonio Mafi and Otito Ogbonnia have started the last three games together.
Odighizuwa ranks second on the team with 3.0 sacks among his 23 total tackles. Ogbonnia has collected 18 tackles and the 380-pound Mafi has 13 tackles including two for loss.
Martin Andrus, Jr. started five of the first six games along the defensive line and Rick Wade started the first six games. On the year, Andrus has 15 tackles and Wade has 14 tackles including 3.0 for loss with one sack.
At outside linebacker, start playmaker Keisan Lucier-South has started every game, while Phoenix native Odua Isibor took over in game three as a starter in place of injured Jaelen Phillips at the other outside spot. Krys Barnes and Tyree Thompson have started every game of the season together at inside linebacker.
Barnes ranks second on the team with 57 tackles including 7.0 for loss with one interception and one sack. Lucier-South has team-highs of 11.5 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks to go along with his 41 total tackles, while Thompson has 43 tackles including 3.0 for loss. Isibor has totaled 38 tackles including 1.5 for loss this season.
In the secondary, cornerback Darnay Holmes and safeties Adarius Pickett and Quentin Lake have started all nine games, while Elijah Gates has started the past three at cornerback after replacing the injured starter, Nate Meadors.
Pickett is the team leader with 95 tackles along with one interception and one fumble recovery, ranking him fourth in the Pac-12 Conference and 19th nationally in tackles per game (10.6)
Lake ranks third on the team with 53 tackles and has a team-high two interceptions, Holmes has 37 tackles and an interception while Gates has 26 tackles and an interception. Meadors has 31 tackles in eight games with six starts.
Defense Summary
Statistically, UCLA has fielded one of the poorest defenses in the Pac-12 this season as the Bruins rank next-to-last in the league in rush defense (208.2, 106th nationally), total defense (437.8, 100th nationally), scoring defense (33.6, 100th nationally) and sacks (1.44, 111th nationally). The Bruins also have one of the worst third-down defenses in college football, ranking 126th among FBS teams (49.3).
An area of moderate play has been the Bruin pass defense, as UCLA ranks seventh in the Pac-12 and 65th nationally allowing 229.6 yards per game.
UCLA has yielded 38 or more points in five of nine games and at least 30 points in seven of nine and having one of the lowest scoring offenses in the country have resulted in five games in which the Bruins have lost by at least 21 points – the most this season by any Pac-12 team.
A plausible cause for struggles in pass rush and run defense is that the potential starting defensive line includes two true freshmen in Mafi and Ogbonnia and a redshirt sophomore in Odighizuwa. UCLA has allowed six 100-yard rushers in nine games and two of the Pac-12’s elite backs had big days against the Bruins as Utah’s Zack Moss rushed for 211 yards and Arizona’s J.J. Taylor totaled 154.
Also, an indicator of the struggles of the defensive front is the fact that safety Adarius Pickett leads the team with an average of nearly 11 tackles per game with zero tackles for loss – an illustration of the common ability for opponents to navigate past the Bruin defensive line.
On paper, it appears Eno Benjamin could be in for yet another big day for the Sun Devils.
UCLA Special Teams
The Bruins boast one of the top punters in the nation in Stefan Flintoft, who averages 46.22 yards on 50 punts with a long of 70, 17 of 50 or more yards and 15 downed inside the 20-yard line. Flintoft leads the Pac-12 in punting average and ranks seventh nationally. Also, only one FBS punter with at least 50 punts has a higher average than Flintoft (Ryan Stonehouse, Colorado State, 49.5-yard average on 51 punts).
Kicker J.J. Molson has connected on 10-of-13 field goal attempts with a long of 50 yards.
On returns, Adarius Pickett (five returns), Darnay Holmes (four) and Kyle Phillips (two) have split time at punt returner and as a team, UCLA averages 9.09 yards per punt return.
Demetric Felton averages 21.0 yards on five kickoff returns and Holmes averages 16.7 on three kick returns.
UCLA has some of the poorer coverage units in college football as against punts the Bruins rank 124th nationally by allowing 16.71 yards on 17 returned punts with one touchdown and UCLA ties for 119th against kickoff returns by allowing 24.59 yards on 17 returns.
Overall Summary
Among Power Five conference teams, only Rutgers (1-8) and North Carolina (1-7) have fewer wins than UCLA, while the Bruins are one of just seven Power Five teams with two or fewer wins.
Also, for all the slack ASU has received for its struggles on the road – and rightly so – UCLA is similarly putrid as the Bruins are 2-18 in their last 20 games away from home and 3-14 on the road in Pac-12 play since the start of the 2015 season.
As the only team in the Pac-12 south division to control its own destiny to a division title, the obvious point of concern is ASU overlooking its opponent Saturday and mentally skipping ahead to a crucial road showdown in hostile territory next week at Oregon and then this year’s installment of the bitter rivalry with Arizona for the Territorial Cup.
For the Bruins, things could not have gone much worse for first-year coach Chip Kelly, praised as one of the home run hires of the college football offseason. Not since 1989 has a UCLA team finished with only three wins and you have to go back to 1971 to the last time a Bruin squad finished with just two victories. With ASU, USC and Stanford left on the schedule, the Bruins are hoping not to end up in such dubious company.
ASU is favored by nearly two touchdowns and has the ability to win by well beyond that margin, but it cannot take a half-speed approach on Saturday afternoon due to the recent surge of the Sun Devils combined with UCLA’s season-long struggles.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Do Not Overlook: A solid bulk of the Sun Devil social media fan base seems to fear the two-win Bruins out of a paralyzing concern that Saturday marks the prototypical ‘trap game’ situation for Arizona State. Though I do not necessarily agree that UCLA is the equivalent to 1995 Nebraska or 2001 Miami heading to Tempe, there is validity in the concern of ASU feeling it can succeed playing at just a cruising altitude. ASU will need to – but likely will distinctly benefit from – honoring the mantra of the late Bruce Snyder and focus on ‘One at a Time’, beginning with the Bruins.
Keep it on the Ground: UCLA has the second worst rush defense in the conference and faces the conference leader in rushing yards per game in ASU’s Eno Benjamin. In the past three games (Arizona, Utah, and Oregon), UCLA has allowed an average of 271.3 rushing yards per game with eight combined touchdown runs. It would not be a surprise to see ASU collect within the ranks of 275 to 300 net rushing yards on Saturday. Saturday also presents an excellent opportunity to give increased carries to Isaiah Floyd and perhaps even Paul Lucas in the run game. Also, ASU’s offensive line is on an incredible roll and faces a three-man Bruin defensive front that could feature two true freshman starters.
Don’t Let Kelley Loose: Last week, Utah’s Zack Moss totaled 128 rush yards on 7.1 yards per carry. The week before that, USC’s Aca’Cedric Ware and Vavae Malepai combined for 115 yards on 6.4 yards per carry. Though ASU emerged victorious in both games, the Devils have allowed teams’ top backs to rack up a fair amount of yardage either in total or at least per carry. One of the better rushers in the Pac-12 Conference, Kelley could give the Bruin offense some life if allowed to consistently gain steady yardage on the ground.
Familiar Faces
· UCLA DB Kenny Churchwell (Phoenix Mountain Pointe) and DL Odua Isibor (Phoenix St. Mary’s) are Arizona natives.
· UCLA OL Alec Anderson attended Rancho Cucamonga (Calif.) Etiwanda High School, as did ASU LB Khaylan Kearse-Thomas
· UCLA LB Je’Vari Anderson, OL Boss Tagaloa and TE Devin Asiasi attended Concord (Calif.) De La Salle High School, as did ASU DB Das Tautalatasi
· UCLA DB Stephan Blaylock attended Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco, as did ASU OL Zach Robertson
· UCLA DB Darnay Holmes attended Calabasas (Calif.) High School, as did ASU LB Reggie Hughes
· UCLA DB Quentin Lake and OL Christaphany Murray attended Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei High School, as did ASU OL Alex Losoya
· UCLA DL Ethan Matus attended San Jose (Calif.) Archbishop Mitty High School, as did ASU TE Tommy Hudson
· UCLA WR Christian Pabico and DB Colin Samuel attended Long Beach (Calif.) Poly High School, as did ASU’s Aashari Crosswell, Jermayne Lole, and Kobe Williams. ASU assistant coach Antonio Pierce coached Samuel as a senior in 2014.
· UCLA DB Adarius Pickett attended El Cerrito (Calif.) High School, as did ASU DB Jalen Harvey
· UCLA TE Drew Platt attended Los Alamitos (Calif.) High School, as did ASU DB Darien Cornay
· UCLA LB Tyree Thompson attended Mission Hills (Calif.) Bishop Alemany High School, as did ASU DB Ely Doyle
· UCLA LB Donovan Williams attended Rancho Cucamonga (Calif.) Los Osos High School, as did ASU OL Cohl Cabral
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