DENVER - Following a 98-73 beatdown of Nevada in the First Four on Wednesday, the Sun Devils (23-12) advanced as the no. 11 seed in the West region, which set them up for a round of 64 clash with the sixth-seeded TCU Horned Frogs (21-12).
Ranked in the preseason AP Poll as the No. 14 team in the country, TCU initially lived up to their lofty expectations. Despite an embarrassing home loss to Northwestern State in November, the Frogs rattled off 11 consecutive victories to start the season at a 13-1 mark, including victories over tournament teams in Iowa, Providence, and Baylor. Playing out of the Big 12 conference, widely regarded as the nation’s best, Head coach Jamie Dixon’s squad felt the pressure in conference play. The Horned Frogs endured a see-saw stretch in January and February, where they would go 7-9 with a four-game losing streak mixed in with arguably the nation’s most impressive victory, a 20-point drubbing of Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. It’s a team that can play up to the best competition in the nation but get caught by a team who can exploit its weaknesses.
Plenty of the Frog’s inconsistencies can be attributed more to a plethora of injuries to their key players rather than their own faults, such as the case with their star point guard Mike Miles. Named to the Third-Team of the CBS Sports Preseason All-American list in October, Miles was expected to utilize his score-at-will abilities to spearhead what many thought to be a dark horse contender for the Big 12 title. Instead, Miles missed eight games battling a knee injury throughout the season, including a near month-long stretch in late January into mid-February when TCU went just 1-5 in games where Miles didn’t play, including his four minutes against Mississippi State.
With or without Miles, the Horned Frogs won 21 games this season on the back of its defensive effort. Ranked at No. 21 in adjusted defensive efficiency on Kenpom, TCU defends the three-point line exceptionally well, allowing their opponents to shoot just 30 percent this season from behind the arc. Their small-ball lineup build is filled with athletes that will be active on defense for all 40 minutes. They rebound well for a team that doesn’t start a player over 6-foot-7, ripping down nearly 36 misses per night. However, the recent departure of trusted glass cleaner Eddie Lampkin though will be felt, as his 5.9 rebounds a game was second on the team. Having played just three games since Lampkin left the program, the Horned Frogs have struggled in this department with a rebounding margin of -23 in those contests.
While their rebounding issues are newfound, TCU has struggled with offensive consistency all season, regardless of its opponent on the court. All year the Horned Frogs have been particularly abysmal from three, shooting 30 percent as a team from deep. Their two-point scoring hasn’t been much better either; the solution to what’s been a painfully bad half-court offense has been creating turnovers and capitalizing on their opponent’s mistakes. Conceding live-ball turnovers has been TCU’s bread-and-butter, as they force 15.6 turnovers per game, good for 125th in Division I. These stolen possessions have translated into their most consistent offense in transition, where the athletic prowess of Miles, Damion Baugh, and Emanuel Miller help contribute to the nation’s top team in fastbreak points per game at nearly 18, two whole points more than second place.
Even with the rollercoaster of a season, TCU has been on; they easily qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year, the first time they’ve made consecutive appearances in the Big Dance in seven decades. With their dizzying style of play, the Frogs are usually never out of a game and have given some of the best teams in the country all they can handle this year, having dropped 80 or more points on all four of the Big 12’s top teams with the exception of Texas. Having been as battle-tested as a Sun Devil team that’s been through plenty of wars themselves this year, neither team is going to back down from the environment of a must-win game.
Both teams excel defensively, ranking in the top 35 on Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranking. Naturally, the winner on Friday will be determined by the team who can find the most consistent success on offense in a contest featuring two inconsistent scoring sides.
To gain the upper hand offensively, ball security and an efficient offense against such an up-tempo team are of paramount importance for Arizona State, which turns the ball over a rather low 11.7 times per game. Exploiting the Frog’s lack of a true center and scoring in the paint will also be key, a promising sign for ASU after they put up 36 points in the paint on Nevada on Wednesday.
The pace of this game could very well determine the winner, and each side will come out of the gates trying to get comfortable in their own style. Nonetheless, this is March Madness. There’s no such thing as comfortable in this tournament. Just ask Arizona, who went scoreless in their last five minutes of a historic first-round loss to 15-seeded Princeton. While neither a TCU nor ASU victory would make headlines like the Wildcat’s loss did, the winner still plays for the right to advance to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, something Bobby Hurley has yet to accomplish in Tempe.
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