I’m going to get this out of the way right from the jump.

Barring an absolute catastrophe, Arizona State is going to the NCAA Tournament. Nothing the Sun Devils can do, in and of itself, will change that.

Wait, what?

That’s correct. And there are plenty of reasons why that’s the case.

1) With the win over Arizona, ASU now has 21 wins, and 11 in the top two quadrants. Of the other consensus bubble teams, none can say both of those things.

2) No matter where you look — Lunardi, Palm, Bracket Matrix, or my latest field — ASU is, at the very least, in the “Last Four Byes” category. That means that, in theory, as many as five teams would have to pass the Sun Devils in the next six days to take them out. And that doesn’t just mean those teams need to win more games than ASU. That means to make their résumé better than ASU’s. Truly move the needle. It’s not too likely that at least five of the teams behind ASU do that this week.

3) The only other thing that’s going to trip ASU up is bid-stealers. Looking at the field, right now, there can be, at most, five bid-stealers — that’s if Gonzaga, Nevada, Buffalo, Wofford, and VCU fail to win their league tournaments. That’s because those are the only projected at-large teams that are the expected to be the lone representatives of their respective conferences. Therefore, if those teams don’t win their conference titles, someone else is going to take an automatic bid that wasn’t likely to be in the field. The odds of one or two, let alone all five of those teams coming up short are so low.

So for the first time all season, the question doesn’t seem to be about “in” or “out.” More so, the question is, “What’s next?”

Sure, there’s always the nightmare scenario where ASU loses on Thursday and every single thing outside the Sun Devils’ control goes wrong, but with how unlikely that is, it’s no longer the focus.

It’s time to start tossing around the possibilities in terms of seeding, venues and matchups, and how the next few days in Sin City affect those variables.

For that, it’s important to know what ASU’s résumé looks like at this point, which is also pretty much how it’ll look in a week’s time, seeing as basically every game the Sun Devils could play in Vegas wouldn’t be much of a needle-mover.

Here’s the latest:

ARIZONA STATE (21-9, 12-6 PAC-12)

NET: No. 67 (-4)

KenPom: No. 62 (+2)

Sagarin: No. 53 (-6)

BPI: No. 63 (+4)

KPI: No. 33 (+5)

Strength of Record: No. 52 (+8)

Strength of Schedule: No. 71 (+13)

QUADRANT 1 (Home vs. NET 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Away vs. 1-75)

WINS: No. 20 Kansas (H–Dec. 22) — No. 21 Mississippi State (N–Nov. 19) — No. 30 Utah State (N–Nov. 21)

LOSSES: No. 19 Nevada (N–Dec. 7) — No. 61 Oregon (A–Feb. 28) — No. 70 Colorado (A–Feb. 13)

RECORD: 3-3

QUADRANT 2 (Home vs. NET 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Away vs. 76-135)

WINS: No. 38 Washington (H–Feb. 9) — No. 61 Oregon (H–Jan. 19) — No. 70 Colorado (H–Jan. 5) — No. 84 Oregon State (A–Mar. 3) — No. 93 Arizona (A–Mar. 9) — No. 101 Utah (A–Feb. 16) — No. 118 UCLA (A-Jan. 24) — No. 112 Georgia (A–Dec. 15)

LOSSES: No. 96 USC (A–Jan. 26) — No. 106 Stanford (A–Jan. 12)

RECORD: 8-2

QUADRANT 3 (Home vs. NET 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240)

WINS: No. 84 Oregon State (H–Jan. 17) — No. 93 Arizona (Jan. 31) — No. 106 Stanford (H–Feb. 20) — No. 233 California (A–Jan. 9)

LOSSES: No. 100 Utah (H–Jan. 3) — No. 153 Vanderbilt (A–Dec. 17)

RECORD: 4-2

QUADRANT 4 (Home vs. NET 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 241+)

WINS: No. 170 Omaha (H–Nov. 28) — No. 191 Cal State Fullerton (Nov. 6) — No. 230 Texas Southern (H–Dec. 1) — No. 236 Long Beach State (H–Jan. 12) — No. 233 California (A–Feb. 24) — No. 328 McNeese (H–Nov. 9)

LOSSES: No. 198 Washington State (H–Feb. 7) — No. 188 Princeton (H–Dec. 29)

RECORD: 6-2

~~~

So, yeah, at this point, there are a million variables at play and a million questions to be answered. The Sun Devils have about six days to answer them — or, more accurately, to have them answered. As was previously mentioned, though, the good thing is that none of those questions seem to revolve around the NCAA Tournament cut-off line.

In reality, ASU could play anyone and anywhere. It’s most likely the Sun Devils will end up with a No. 11 seed, but neither a No. 10 nor a No. 12 is out of the realm of possibility.

Right now, I’ve got them as a No. 11 playing against No. 6 Buffalo in Jacksonville. Fun matchup, right?

The reality is, there’s no way to really know who’s going to be matched up across from ASU on Selection Sunday. But there are some intriguing possibilities in the 5-7 seed range, like Markus Howard and Marquette (No. 5 in my field), defending champion Villanova (No. 6), and this year’s mid-major sweethearts, Wofford (No. 7).

For the Sun Devils to play their way onto the 10-line, they’re almost definitely going to have to reach Saturday’s Pac-12 championship game, and may even have to win it. With a conference title, a No. 9 seed isn’t impossible, but it’s definitely the true “ceiling” at this point.

The floor, of course, seems to be another trip to Dayton for the First Four. That’s probably only going to happen if ASU’s loses in Thursday’s quarterfinals to UCLA or Stanford, among other things, but it’s a possibility.

So, a No. 11 seed seems pretty likely. That’s good and bad. It means a tougher first-round game — my No. 6 seeds are Buffalo, Nevada, Auburn and Villanova, so nothing easy there — but the chance to avoid the nation’s true elites in a potential second-round game by playing a No. 3 seed.

Also, of the four double-digit seeds that have made a Final Four, three were No. 11s. There have also been seven No. 11s to reach the second weekend in the past five years — at least one in each season — and a total of 12 have at least won a game in that stretch. That’s good for a first-round record of 12-8 since 2014.

For an upset to happen that consistently, that says something. Just something to chew on.

There’s not much else to say at this point. You can spend the whole week, like me, trying to predict every iota of ASU’s fate — and everyone else’s for that matter. Or, you can just listen to Jon Rothstein, sit back and enjoy the beauty of March.

“College basketball. Where the unexpected becomes the ordinary.”