By now it is well known that Arizona State’s Jayden Daniels will be the first true freshman in program history to start the season opener at quarterback. Along with that announcement seems to come equal parts excitement and uncertainty, as the developmental timetable for a college athlete rarely is very predictable.
In cases of a highly-touted freshman such as Daniels – a four-star, top-100 overall prospect from the 2019 class – concerns are common as to whether talent and potential can overcome inevitable learning curves.
According to the research conducted by Sun Devil Science, Daniels is poised to become just the seventh true freshman quarterback in the Pac-10 or Pac-12 Conference to start a team’s season opener since the year 2000 joining Matt Barkley (USC, 2009), Jared Goff (California, 2013), Jake Browning (Washington, 2015), Seth Collins (Oregon State, 2015), Josh Rosen (UCLA, 2015) and J.T. Daniels (USC, 2018).
As will be outlined in this analysis, due to the mixed-to-poor history of true freshman starting quarterbacks in the conference, if Daniels starts the duration of the season and improves ASU’s win total from 2018 he would undoubtedly be considered one of top – if not the very best – true freshman quarterback this century within the league.
That said, to earn such lofty accolades Daniels will have to circumvent unfavorable history both within the program and within the conference regarding true freshmen quarterbacks.
The Numbers
· Since 2000, 30 true freshmen quarterbacks have attempted at least 10 passes for Pac-12 Conference programs (since 2011 for Colorado and Utah)
· Of those 30 quarterbacks, a total of 19 started at least one game
· Those 19 quarterbacks have combined for a 48-78 record as true freshman starters (.381%)
· Of those 19 quarterbacks, five started 11 or more games, six started seven games, four started either four or five games, while four started just one game as a true freshman
· Among conference teams, six true freshmen have started season openers between 2000-18 (2011-18 for Colorado and Utah)
· Of the 13 remaining true freshman quarterbacks since 2000 to have started a game, six earned their first start in either game five or six of the season, while six notched their first start in games seven through 10; one quarterback made his starting debut in game two
· On only four occasions since 2000 has a true freshman quarterback won more than three games in a season; only three times in that span has a true freshman quarterback won more than five games – Matt Barkley, nine wins (2009), Josh Rosen, eight wins (2015), Jake Browning, seven wins (2015)
The Comparisons
As mentioned above, five true freshman quarterbacks among conference teams started every game or all but one game for their teams. No other true freshmen quarterbacks have started more than seven games in a season since 2000. These five quarterbacks combined for an even 30-30 record as true freshmen and likely serve as the closest situational comparisons to Daniels, as he is expected to be the season-long starter.
Matt Barkley, USC, 2009 (9-3 record)
Recruiting Ranking: No. 5 overall, No. 1 Pro-Style Quarterback
In the final season of the Pete Carroll Era at USC, high profile recruit Matt Barkley joined the Men of Troy and was instantly crowned starting quarterback.
Barkley was surrounded by a host of talent on all sides of the ball as was par for the course those days at USC. Damian Williams was tabbed a First-Team All-Pac-10 pick at both wide receiver and punt returner, while Barkley was protected by a pair of First-Team All-Pac-10 selections along the offensive line in Jeff Byers and Charles Brown as well as Honorable Mention picks Butch Lewis and Tyron Smith. Running backs Allen Bradford and Joe McKnight and tight end Anthony McCoy also earned Honorable Mention All-Pac-10 accolades.
Defensively, safety Taylor Mays was a First-Team All-Pac-10 selection, while fellow defensive backs Josh Pinkard and Kevin Thomas, as well
as defensive end Everson Griffen, were listed as second-team honors recipients. Defensive linemen Jurrell Casey and Christian Tupou, linebacker Chris Galippo and safety Will Harris all earned Honorable Mention All-Pac-10.
Despite enduring tumultuous times at USC including postseason bans and the start to the Lane Kiffin Era, Barkley was a four-year starter and completed his career as the conference’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdown passes. Barkley was selected in the fourth round of the 2013 NFL Draft by Philadelphia.
Jared Goff, California, 2013 (1-11)
Recruiting Ranking: No. 140 Overall, No. 8 Pro-Style Quarterback
One of the poorest performing teams in recent conference history, Goff started every game for a California squad that managed just one win under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes – a one-touchdown victory over FCS opponent Portland State – while dropping 10 of its 11 losses by double digits and seven by at least 21 points, capped by a 63-13 rivalry embarrassment at the hands of Stanford to end the season.
A bit of relevant trivia – Cal’s passing game coordinator that year? Rob Likens.
Cal struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, as the Golden Bears ranked last in the Pac-12 in scoring offense and scoring defense – allowing an eye-popping 45.9 points per game – as well as last in total defense, pass defense, pass defense efficiency and turnover margin.
Goff was one of the very few standouts on the team as he set a program single-season record with 3,508 passing yards, adding 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Goff had conflicting efforts overall, however, as he helped California rank third in pass offense, but the team also ranked last in the league in pass efficiency.
Understandably, the team as a whole was generally devoid of top-level talent as kicker Vincenzo D’Amato was the only player noted on the conference’s postseason first or second-team, while Goff, receiver Bryce Treggs and defensive lineman Deandre Coleman were the only Golden Bears to earn Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 accolades.
Matters certainly took a dramatic turn for the better for Goff as the years progressed, as he helped Cal improve to an eight-win effort as a junior in 2015 before bypassing his senior season to become the top pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. In three years in the NFL, he has earned two Pro Bowl bids and helped lead the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance following the 2018 season.
Jake Browning, Washington, 2015 (7-5)
Recruiting Ranking: No. 84 overall, No. 3 Pro-Style Quarterback
Browning, paired with fellow freshman Myles Gaskin at running back, set the foundation in 2015 for a Washington program that would win two Pac-12 titles and earn berths in the College Football Playoff, the Fiesta Bowl and the Rose Bowl the following three seasons.
Though the Husky offense was below average in the Pac-12 in 2015 (ninth in the conference in scoring offense, total offense, rush offense and pass offense), Browning benefited from the league’s top defense as Washington ranked first in the conference in scoring defense and total defense and second in rush defense and forced turnovers. In seven games, Washington allowed 17 or fewer points.
The Husky defense that year had First-Team All-Pac-12 selections in the secondary in Budda Baker and Sidney Jones and second-teamers Taniela Tupou on the defensive line and Travis Feeney at linebacker. The defense also had Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 picks in lineman Greg Gaines, linebackers Cory Littleton and Azeem Victor and defensive back Kevin King, all of whom eventually were either drafted into the NFL or made 53-man rosters.
Browning finished his career ranked fourth all-time in Pac-12 history in career passing yards and signed with the Minnesota Vikings this spring as an undrafted rookie free agent.
Josh Rosen, UCLA, 2015 (8-5)
Recruiting Ranking: No. 2 overall, No. 1 Pro-Style Quarterback
After three-year starter Brett Hundley bypassed his senior season to enter the NFL Draft after the 2014 season, UCLA needed a new starter and acquired the top-rated recruit at the position for the 2015 class.
The starter from day one – the first true freshman quarterback to open the season as the starter in UCLA history – Rosen started all 13 games, throwing for 3,668 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for two touchdowns.
UCLA began the season ranked No. 13 in the preseason Associated Press Poll and rose as high as No. 7 before being upset at home by Arizona State. The Bruins would remain in the top-25 for the majority of the season but fell out of the rankings after losses to rival USC and then to Nebraska in the Foster Farms Bowl to end the season.
The Bruins also featured talented players on offense in Second-Team All-Pac-12 picks in running back Paul Perkins, tight end Thomas Duarte and linemen Jake Brendel and Conor McDermott. UCLA also had standouts on defense in First-Team All-Pac-12 lineman Kenny Clark and second-teamers Deon Hollins at linebacker and defensive backs Randall Goforth and Jaleel Wadood.
Rosen went on to play three seasons with the Bruins before becoming a first-round selection of the Arizona Cardinals in the 2018 NFL Draft. He played one year for the Cardinals before being traded to the Miami Dolphins.
J.T. Daniels, USC, 2018 (5-6)
Recruiting Ranking: No. 4 overall, No. 2 Pro-Style Quarterback
Originally a member of the 2019 recruiting class, Daniels reclassified to the 2018 class in late December 2017 and announced he would enroll at USC the next month. After his reclassification, among pro-style quarterbacks he was ranked second behind eventual national champion and top overall prospect Trevor Lawrence of Clemson.
Daniels’ college career – and the 2018 season for the Trojans – got off to a rocky start, as USC started 1-2 in the first three games and Daniels threw a combined one touchdown and three interceptions in those games.
Just the second true freshman quarterback in program history to be USC’s opening game starter, Daniels battled through injuries which ultimately sidelined him for the Trojans’ matchup with ASU. As a starter in all 11 games in which he played, Daniels threw for 2,672 yards with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
The USC team as a whole endured struggles it hadn’t previously suffered since the very beginning of the 21st century as the Trojans finished with a 5-7 record, its worst since 2000 and only time since that year that USC was not bowl eligible (aside from its two-year bowl ban in 2010-11).
As is to be expected from a sub-.500 team but rare for the USC program, the Trojans had no First-Team All-Pac-12 honorees in 2018. Offensive lineman Chuma Edoga, defensive linemen Porter Gustin and Jay Tufele, linebacker Cameron Smith and defensive back Iman Marshall all earned Second-Team All-Pac-12 accolades.
Daniels enters the 2019 season as the starter once again for the Trojans.
ASU All-Time True Freshman Starting Quarterbacks (5)
When he starts against Kent State, Daniels will become just the sixth true freshman in Arizona State football history to start at quarterback.
John Walker, 1984
After starter Jeff Van Raaphorst was sidelined by an injury in the opener, Walker started the next four games. He posted a 2-2 record in those games, with a starting debut win over San Jose State followed by a loss to USC, then a win at Stanford followed by a loss to California.
Van Raaphorst returned to the lineup after that point and for the season, Walker totaled 555 passing yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions. ASU finished with a 5-6 record on the year.
Bret Powers, 1990
When starter Paul Justin was injured, Kurt Lasher was first in line to take over the starting role before Powers came in to start in the sixth game of the season – a loss to Oregon. After shuffling through three starting quarterbacks over the course of the season, ASU fell to 4-7 to end the year.
For the year as a true freshman, Powers threw for 277 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions. The primary starter in 1991, Powers transferred to Ohio State after first-year head coach Bruce Snyder opted for a new starting quarterback prior to the 1992 season.
Jake Plummer, 1993
The skinny true freshman from Idaho was inserted into the starting lineup in game six in place of Grady Benton and the rest was history. Plummer never relinquished his role, rewrote the Sun Devil passing record books, claimed a Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl berth and most recently was selected for induction to the College Football Hall of Fame.
As a true freshman, Plummer finished with a 4-2 record as a starter, with a starting debut loss to Oregon and a season finale defeat to Arizona bracket around four straight wins at Stanford, at home against Washington and California and at UCLA.
The victory Plummer helped engineer on Nov. 13, 1993 is the last time a Sun Devil true freshman quarterback started a game and won.
ASU finished with a 6-5 record in 1993 but was not selected for a bowl game berth.
Brock Osweiler, 2009
Following an injury to starter Danny Sullivan, Osweiler entered the starting lineup for the first time in the 10th game of the season in what ultimately was a defeat at Oregon. Osweiler suffered an injury early in that game, pushing Samson Szakacsy into the lineup to start the final two contests.
Before exiting against Oregon due to injury, Osweiler completed 5-of-10 passes for 14 yards with an interception.
ASU concluded the 2009 season with a 4-8 final record.
Dillon Sterling-Cole, 2016
Starter Manny Wilkins had lingering injuries for the majority of the season after first being damaged early in the year and after backup Brady White suffered a season-ending injury of his own, Sterling-Cole was elevated into the starting lineup in the ninth game of the season – a loss at Oregon. In that game, he completed 21-of-38 passes for 302 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions and also rushed eight times for 23 net yards with a touchdown.
Wilkins returned to the lineup, but ASU was unable to earn a postseason bid as the Sun Devils finished 2016 with a 5-7 record.
Pac-10/12 Conference True Freshman Quarterbacks (Minimum 10 Pass Attempts; Since 2000, Since 2011 for Colorado and Utah)
In total, 30 true freshmen quarterbacks in the Pac-10 and Pac-12 Conferences have attempted at least 10 passes in a season since 2000 (since 2011 for Colorado and Utah).
Arizona State (4)
Sterling-Cole, 2016 (0-1 as a starter)
Osweiler, 2009 (0-1)
Danny Sullivan, 2006 (0-0)
Sullivan appeared in six games with no starts as the main reserve behind Rudy Carpenter, completing 6-of-15 passes for 46 yards.
Sam Keller, 2003 (0-0)
Keller played six games as a true freshman but did not make any starts. He saw ample second half action at UCLA in place of injured starter Andrew Walter and for the year, Keller completed 23-of-43 passes for 247 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Arizona (4)
Khalil Tate, 2016 (0-1)
Matt Scott, 2008 (0-0)
Willie Tuitama, 2005 (2-2)
Kris Heavner, 2003 (1-7)
Tate appeared in seven games with one start, a loss to USC. In total for the year, he threw for 243 yards, rushed for 237 and had three passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and three interceptions. Scott played in six games in 2008 as a reserve primarily as a running threat from the quarterback position, throwing for 84 yards with one touchdown while rushing for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Tuitama came out of a redshirt year to appear in five games with four starts, totaling 1,105 passing yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Heavner started the majority of Arizona’s 2003 season, with eight starts among nine game appearances. However, he won only one of his starts and threw for 1,501 yards with eight touchdowns but 15 interceptions.
California (2)
Luke Rubenzer, 2014 (0-0)
Jared Goff, 2013 (1-11)
Before making a position change later in his career to defense, Rubenzer played in 11 games as a true freshman as the team’s backup quarterback with 166 passing yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions to go along with 207 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Colorado (1)
Sefo Liufau, 2013 (2-5)
Liufau took over as the starter at about the midway point of the season and overall appeared in eight games with seven starts. For the year, Liufau threw for 1,779 yards with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions along with 43 net rushing yards.
Oregon (4)
Braxton Burmeister, 2017 (1-4)
Justin Herbert, 2016 (2-5)
Darron Thomas, 2008 (0-0)
Dennis Dixon, 2004 (0-0)
In place of an injured Justin Herbert, Burmeister started five games and appeared in seven total contests as a true freshman in 2017, throwing for 330 yards with two touchdowns and six interceptions while also rushing for 102 yards with three touchdowns. The previous season, Herbert started seven of nine games played, throwing for 1,936 yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions along with 161 rushing yards with two touchdowns. Thomas appeared in five games with 268 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception along with 27 rushing yards and one score, while Dixon appeared in six games as a true freshman with 73 passing yards and 40 rushing yards.
Oregon State (3)
Conor Blount, 2016 (0-0)
Seth Collins, 2015 (2-5)
Derek Anderson, 2001 (0-0)
Blount appeared in four games as a true freshman in 2016, throwing for 183 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions along with four net rush yards. Collins started the first seven games of the 2015 season before missing time due to injury, after which he was repositioned to wide receiver. In all as a true freshman, Collins threw for 936 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions and rushed for 580 yards and eight touchdowns. Anderson appeared in 11 games in 2001, throwing for 263 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.
Stanford (0)
None
UCLA (5)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, 2018 (1-6)
Josh Rosen, 2015 (8-5)
Richard Brehaut, 2009 (0-0)
Matt Moore, 2002 (1-0)
Drew Olson, 2002 (3-2)
Thompson-Robinson split the season as the starter with Michigan grad transfer Wilton Speight, and as a freshman Thompson-Robinson threw for 1,311 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions along with 68 net rushing yards in 10 games with seven starts. Brehaut played in six games, throwing for 124 yards with zero touchdowns and an interception. A pair of true freshmen to start in the same season for UCLA, Moore appeared in five games with one start in 2002, throwing for 412 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while Olson played in nine games with five starts and threw for 702 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions.
USC (3) J.T. Daniels, 2018 (5-6)
Matt Barkley, 2009 (9-3)
John David Booty, 2003 (0-0)
Behind Matt Leinart, booty appeared in five games with 90 total passing yards as a true freshman in 2003.
Utah (1)
Travis Wilson, 2012 (3-4)
Wilson appeared in all 12 games and started the final seven as a true freshman for Utah in 2012, throwing for 1,311 yards with seven touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 40 net yards with four touchdowns.
Washington (1)
Jake Browning, 2015 (7-5)
Washington State (2)
Jeff Tuel, 2009 (0-5)
J.T. Levenseller, 2008 (0-0)
Tuel saw action in six games with five starts as a true freshman, throwing for 789 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Levenseller played in four games as a true freshman in 2008, throwing for 134 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
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