Advertisement
Published Aug 23, 2019
Sun Devil Science: Pac-12 Non-Conference Schedule Analysis
Joe Healey
Staff Writer


The start to the 2019 college football season is just days away, with a “week zero” appetizer with two games on Saturday, Aug. 24 including FBS teams – one of which featuring a squad from the Pac-12 Conference.

When it comes to their schedules for 2019, which teams within the league have loaded up their lineups outside of Pac-12 play? Which ones are a proverbial pantry filled with cupcakes? What about the rivalries, upsets, marquee matchups, highs and lows that make college football as gloriously nerve-racking as it is? All that and more can be found in the edition of Sun Devil Science to kick off the 2019 college football season.

Pac-12 Non-Conference Schedules

All are games are games one through three unless otherwise noted

South Division

Arizona State: Kent State (Thurs., 8/29), Sacramento State (Fri., 9/6), at Michigan State

Colorado: vs. Colorado State* (Fri., 8/30), Nebraska, Air Force

UCLA: at Cincinnati (Thurs., 8/29), San Diego State, Oklahoma

USC: Fresno State, at BYU (game three), at Notre Dame (game six)

Utah: at BYU (Thurs., 8/29), Northern Illinois, Idaho State

Arizona: at Hawaii (8/24), Northern Arizona, Texas Tech

*-Denver, Colo.

North Division

Pac-12 North Non-Conference Schedules

California: UC Davis, North Texas (game three), at Mississippi (game four)

Oregon: vs. Auburn*, Nevada, Montana

Oregon State: Oklahoma State (Fri., 8/30), at Hawaii, Cal Poly

Stanford: Northwestern, at UCF (game three), Notre Dame (game 12)

Washington: Eastern Washington, Hawaii (game three), at BYU (game four)

Washington State: New Mexico State, Northern Colorado, at Houston (Fri., 9/13)

*-Arlington, Texas

Toughest Non-Conference Schedule: Stanford (Northwestern, at UCF, Notre Dame)

No doubt here. Wow. If there’s a tougher non-conference schedule among a power conference team, I’d like to see it.

Stanford’s three non-conference opponents combined for 33 wins last season, with Notre Dame qualifying for the College Football Playoff, UCF winning the American Athletic Conference title and appearing in its second-straight New Year’s Six game at the Fiesta Bowl, while Northwestern represented the west division in the Big Ten Conference Championship game.

The slate for the Cardinal is generally unique in nature as Stanford opens the season at home against Northwestern, then after a week two conference opener against USC the Cardinal trip all the way to play UCF. Stanford’s yearly matchup with Notre Dame is not until the final week of the regular season (Nov. 30).

The difficulty of Stanford’s schedule is also reflected in the Preseason Associated Press Poll, as Notre Dame is ranked No. 9, UCF No. 17 and Northwestern standing fifth among the other teams to receive votes.

USC also deserves credit for its challenging non-conference schedule, as the Trojans are the only team in the league with two road games among their three total contests away from league play. Not only do they face that disadvantage but the competition is stiff as well, as its three opponents combined for 31 wins including a pair of 12-win teams in Fresno State and Notre Dame.

Altogether, the Trojans face Fresno State at home in the season opener, then travel to BYU in the season’s third game and later play at Notre Dame in game six.

Honorable Mention: UCLA (at Cincinnati, San Diego State, Oklahoma)

Easiest Non-Conference Schedule: Washington State

Washington State opens with New Mexico State, which, after a memorable 2017 season that resulted in the program’s first bowl bid since 1960, returned to old form with a three-win season in 2018. Next, the Cougars face Northern Colorado, an FCS squad that managed just a 2-9 finish in the Big Sky Conference last year.

The big ticket item on Washington State’s non-conference slate is its road trip to Houston, an 8-5 team last year that may see an additional jolt with the return of former offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen as head coach.

Honorable Mention: Arizona State (Kent State, Sacramento State, at Michigan State), Washington (Eastern Washington, Hawaii, at BYU)

Highest Profile Game: Oregon vs. Auburn (Arlington, Texas)

A rematch of the BCS Championship Game to cap off the 2010 season, the Ducks and Tigers head to a neutral site in Arlington, Texas in the annual kickoff game held at AT&T Stadium on Aug. 31.

Auburn, ranked ninth last year in the preseason AP Poll, had a disappointing 2018 season by finishing with an 8-5 record and a fifth-place finish in the SEC West division. Oregon, however, is a strong candidate to with the conference, guided by potential NFL Draft lottery pick Justin Herbert at quarterback.

With the Ducks ranked No. 11 in the Preseason Associated Press Poll and Auburn ranked No. 16, this matchup is one of three non-conference games for Pac-12 teams that features a pair of squads in the preseason top-25 and the only of the three in which both teams are ranked inside the top-20.

Though a loss in a neutral site season opener against Auburn wouldn’t derail Oregon’s hopes for a conference title (see: Washington Huskies, 2018) if the Ducks are to have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations in 2019, they will need to past their first test of the season in this opening showdown.

Honorable Mention (listed by date)

· Utah at BYU (Aug. 29)

· Washington State at Houston (Sept. 13)

· Arizona State at Michigan State (Sept. 14)

· Stanford at UCF (Sept. 14)

· USC at Notre Dame (Oct. 12)

· Stanford vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 30)

Non-Conference Rivalry Games

Utah at BYU (Aug. 29)

The Holy War, with the possibility of winning Beehive Boot at stake each year has Utah in charge with a 61-34-4 all-time record against BYU. With the exception of a one-year absence from the rivalry in 2014 and the years in the 1940’s affected by World War II, BYU and Utah have met each year since 1922.

The Utes have won eight straight with the last Cougar win coming at the end of the 2009 season, including a 35-27 Utah win last year in Salt Lake City.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (Denver, Colo.)

A common game to open the season for the Buffaloes, Colorado has faced Colorado State in its season opener the past two seasons, in five of the past six seasons and nine of 11 seasons.

Since 1998, all but four meetings in this rivalry series – regardless of its spot on the teams’ schedules – have taken place in Denver, as opposed to at either program’s home stadium.

Colorado has won four consecutive games, five of six and seven of nine against the Rams. Overall in the Rocky Mountain Showdown for the Centennial Cup, Colorado leads Colorado State 66-22-2.

USC vs. Notre Dame (Oct. 12)

One of the most illustrious rivalries in college football, with the exception of seasons missed due to World War II, USC, and Notre Dame have met each year since 1926. The Fighting Irish have won two straight, three of four and five of seven against the Trojans. This has come after a stretch in which USC took eight straight against the Irish from 2002-09.

The two programs headed in polar opposite directions in 2018 as Notre Dame landed a spot in the College Football Playoff while USC had a losing record for the first time since 2000.

This meeting, which occurs in USC’s sixth game, follows a bye week that comes after a Trojan road game at Washington on Sept. 28 and a home matchup with Utah on Sept. 20. Suffice to say, Clay Helton’s job security could possibly be on the line with the Trojans travel to South Bend for this midseason contest.

Notre Dame leads the all-time series in the battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh – introduced into the rivalry in 1952 – with a head-to-head record of 46-36-5.

Stanford at Notre Dame (Nov. 30)

An underrated rivalry perhaps overshadowed by that between Notre Dame and Stanford’s conference and in-state adversary USC, the Cardinal and the Irish have met each season since 1997 and every year since 1988 with the exception of a two-year hiatus in 1995-96.

Last season, Notre Dame broke a three-year losing streak to Stanford by defeating the Cardinal in South Bend. Overall, Stanford has won seven of the past 10 meetings with the Fighting Irish.

The 2019 meeting between the two teams will come as the regular-season finale for both squads on Nov. 30.

In what is now the annual battle for the Legends Trophy – first awarded to the winner in 1989 – Notre Dame leads Stanford with a head-to-head record of 19-13.

Honorable Mention: For the second straight year, Colorado and Nebraska clash in a matchup of two former Big 12 North division foes. In all, the two programs have met 70 times – first playing in 1898 –and had met each year from 1948-2010 until both teams left the Big 12 prior to the 2011 season. The series reignited last year, with Colorado beating Nebraska in Lincoln, 33-28.

Toughest Road Game: Arizona State at Michigan State

Sure, USC plays at Notre Dame, but as a game played every year as part of one of college football’s best rivalries, it lacks the the uniqueness of other non-conference games.

California at Mississippi is a valid option as well and the Cougar vs. Cougar matchup of Washington State at Houston should feature all of the points, but I’ll give the edge to the Sun Devils, with a true freshman quarterback in his first career road start in very unfamiliar geographic turf.

Though Michigan State ranked in the 2018 preseason at No. 11, struggled to a 7-6 record last season including a loss in Tempe to the Sun Devils, the Spartans return veteran quarterback Brian Lewerke and conference Defensive Lineman of the Year Kenny Willekes as well as fellow First-Team All-Big-10 member Joe Bachie at linebacker.

This century, ASU has only played two games at a greater distance from Tempe – at Georgia in 2009 and at North Carolina in 2003 – than its upcoming trip to East Lansing. ASU’s most recent road games at Big Ten teams came at Illinois in 2011, Wisconsin in 2010, Northwestern in 2004 and Iowa in 2003.

Of late, ASU has also fared very poorly on the road – in general, but specifically in non-conference action – as over the past 10 years, the Sun Devils are just 2-8 in regular-season games away from Sun Devil Stadium with neither win coming against a Power Five team (UTSA, 2016 and New Mexico, 2014).

Though ASU dominates Big Ten teams in Tempe – the Sun Devils have never lost to an active Big Ten Conference member in Sun Devil Stadium – since joining the Pac-10 Conference in 1978, Arizona State is just 3-9 in games played on the road against programs currently in the Big Ten Conference.

ASU’s last regular-season non-conference win away from Sun Devil Stadium against a power conference opponent came in 2006 at Colorado when the Buffaloes were still in the Big 12 Conference – the year ASU’s 2019 freshman class was in kindergarten.

Honorable Mention*: Utah at BYU, Stanford at UCF, Washington State at Houston, California at Ole Miss, USC at Notre Dame

*-Only includes true road games and not neutral site games

Pac-12 Non-Conference Opponents in the Preseason AP Top-25:

· No. 4 Oklahoma (UCLA)

· No. 9 Notre Dame (USC, Stanford)

· No. 16 Auburn (Oregon)

· No. 17 UCF (Stanford)

· No. 18 Michigan State (Arizona State)

· No. 24 Nebraska (Colorado)

Best Chance for an FCS Upset: California vs. UC Davis

The Pac-12 Conference has only two matchups with FCS teams that won more than six games last year – Washington’s meeting with defending FCS national runner-up Eastern Washington and California’s clash with UC Davis, the seventh-ranked team at the end of last season with a 10-3 record.

The Huskies’ game with Eastern Washington is a less-than-compelling upset possibility both because Washington is likely to remain a contender for the North title and the Eagles lose quarterback Gage Gubrud to Washington State as a graduate transfer.

Though it’s an FCS opponent when the Golden Bears face the Mustangs, it won’t be a situation where Cal can just GO PLAY INTRAMURALS, BROTHER, as third-year UC Davis head coach Dan Hawkins, formerly the head man of Colorado and Boise State, all-time YouTube sensation and last year’s National Coach of the Year at the FCS level, posted a five-win improvement from his debut season of 2017 to last season. Under Hawkins’ tutelage, UC Davis also made it to the FCS football equivalent to the Elite Eight in 2018 before losing to conference foe Eastern Washington.

UC Davis is headlined by returning Big Sky Conference Offensive Player of the Year Jake Maier at quarterback after he threw for 3,931 yards with 34 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year.

As a team in 2018, UC Davis ranked seventh at the FCS level in total offense (488.9) and eighth in scoring offense (39.7).

California, a much-improved team in 2018, especially on defense, must replace offensive star Patrick Laird and a few key components on defense and could possibly be rusty out of the gates in week one against its FCS opponent located just an hour from Berkeley.

Other Pac-12 versus FCS matchups in 2019 include Washington State against Northern Colorado (2-9 in 2018), Arizona State versus Sacramento State (2-8), Oregon State against Cal-Poly (5-6), Utah versus Idaho State (6-5) and Oregon against Montana (6-5).

Longest Road Trips: Thinking of making drives or flights out of town? Better cash in those frequent flyer miles or start saving up gas money for these as there are nine games in which a Pac-12 program will have to travel at least 2,000 miles. Distances listed are from stadium to stadium.

· Arizona at Hawaii (2,967 miles)

· Stanford at UCF (2,882 miles)

· Oregon State at Hawaii (2,536 miles)

· UCLA at Cincinnati (2,170 miles)

· Washington State at Houston (2,169 miles)

· California at Ole Miss (2,166 miles)

· Oregon vs. Auburn (Arlington, Texas; 2,107 miles)

· USC at Notre Dame (2,103 miles)

· Arizona State at Michigan State (2,004 miles)

Visitors from Afar: On the flip side of the last topic, which programs visiting Pac-12 venues will face the longest trips? In total, six teams come to the Pac-12 from a distance of at least 1,500 miles, Again, distances are measured from stadium to stadium.

· Hawaii at Washington (2,680 miles)

· Notre Dame at Stanford (2,240 miles)

· Northwestern at Stanford (2,169 miles)

· Kent State at Arizona State (2,011 miles)

· Oklahoma State at Oregon State (1,889 miles)

· North Texas at California (1,684 miles)

Most Frequently Seen: BYU and Hawaii (3)

In three of its first four games of the season, BYU faces Pac-12 foes – all in Provo – as in-state rival Utah starts the season against the Cougars on Aug. 29, then USC comes to down on Sept. 14 and then Washington on Sept. 21.

Hawaii starts the 2019 season with a trio of Pac-12 opponents, first at home against Arizona on Aug. 24, then again at home on Sept. 7 against Oregon State before taking to the road for the first time in Seattle against Washington on Sept. 14.

Honorable Mention: Notre Dame (2: USC on Oct. 12, at Stanford on Nov. 30)

First Timers: A total of six non-conference games played by Pac-12 teams in 2019 will feature programs that have never before met on the gridiron:

· Arizona State vs. Kent State

· Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State

· Washington State vs. New Mexico State

· California vs. North Texas

· Washington State vs. Northern Colorado (FCS)

· Oregon State vs. Cal Poly (FCS)

Advertisement