Sun Devil Science: Does ASU Always Excel Under Low Expectations?

Ahh, the ever-popular mantra for years in which little is expected of ASU on a national and/or conference scale: We always do better with no expectations!

Is this true? Is this false? Is there some of both?

With the Sun Devils picked next-to-last in the Pac-12 south division by the conference media and ASU having received zero votes in the 2016 preseason Associated Press (AP) Poll, this topic has been discussed quite a bit as Arizona State prepares to begin the season.

As we dive deeper into this debate, a few notes, and designations to keep in mind:

Only AP Poll data is considered: Due to the fact that the AP Poll outdates the Coaches Poll as well as the Bowl Championship Series and College Football Playoff rankings, it and only it is used in this analysis

ASU received no votes in the 2016 Preseason AP Poll: Though it is not a surprise, not only was ASU not ranked in the top-25, but also the Sun Devils failed to receive a single vote from the AP voting committee.

Throughout this analysis, three primary outcomes will be evaluated:

From Above Average to Great: Seasons in which ASU is nationally ranked or near the cutoff point in the preseason and ends with an even higher ranking

From Off the Radar to Good: Seasons in which ASU receives zero or one preseason ranking vote and finishes with a winning record but no final national ranking

From Off the Radar to Above Average/Great: Seasons in which ASU receives zero or one vote in the preseason poll but finished nationally ranked.

Also, a key point to consider – especially when reviewing teams from the 1980s and before – is that the Associated Press only ranked 20 teams from 1939-88 before expanding to a top-25 in 1989.

Now then, with the rules and regulations acknowledged, we break down how ASU has performed under high, medium and low expectations.

The Curse of the Preseason Top-15

It is the opinion of this writer that at least some of the belief that ASU invariably overachieves when little is expected is rooted in the assumption that since the Sun Devils have proven to falter when expectations are high, that the inverse must also be true. Essentially, some seem to think that since ASU is known to struggle when expectations are high, the football program must therefore excel when little is expected.

To begin, there is cold, hard proof that ASU stumbles with great expectations. In the 42 seasons from 1974-2015, Arizona State on seven occasions has been ranked in the top-15 preseason AP Poll. Of those seven, only once did ASU finish the season with a winning record (1987; 7-4-1) and the overall record among those seven seasons is 39-42-1. In that same 42-year span, ASU has had six top-15 rankings in the final AP Poll, but clearly none came from the seasons that began with such a national poll position. So very simply put, with no exceptions since 1974 when ASU has been predicted in the preseason to be a top-15 team, the Sun Devils have each time distinctly failed to live up to the hype.

Prior to 1974, Arizona State had a much better track record when opening with high expectations as in 1971 ASU started No. 14 and ended No. 8, in ’72 started No. 12 and ended No. 13 and in ’73 started No. 14 and ended No. 9.

From Above Average to Great

An area that provides some support to the view of overachievement is ASU taking what is predicted to be an above average season and turning it into a very good year. The “above average” designation will hereby include teams that were in the bottom portion of the preseason top-25 or not far outside the preseason rankings.

In five of the six seasons resulting in 10 or more wins that ASU has posted since entering the Pac-10 Conference in 1978, the Sun Devils were ranked between 19th and 36th in the preseason AP Poll (these include the teams also to receive votes but not listed in the preseason rankings). In these cases, ASU was clearly on the radar of the national media – even in the top-25 in some cases – but leapt to a level higher than predicted prior to the start of the season.

In addition to these five seasons, ASU also has some very good – and even legendary – years begin with no preseason poll ranking such as 1975, 1986 and 1997. Though preseason voting data (in terms of the teams outside the top-25 to also receive votes) is not available for those seasons, the Sun Devils likely were right on the cusp of a national ranking to begin the year as ASU was ranked No. 18 after just one win in both 1975 and ’86 and was ranked No. 24 after just one victory in 1997. Additionally, only one of these three seasons included an opening win over a ranked team (No. 20 Michigan State, 1986), so ASU in these cases did not have earth-shattering first game victories that catapulted the Sun Devils from obscurity into prominence. Lastly, since the AP Poll did not expand from 20 to 25 teams until 1989, it is plausible to think that ASU could have been ranked somewhere in the No. 21-25 range in the preseason for both 1975 and ’86 had those standings existed at the time.

ASU doesn’t have a completely spotless history in these circumstances as the Sun Devils had four seasons from 1999-2006 that began with preseason rankings between 20th and 25th that ultimately resulted in the Devils out of the top-25 at the end of the year.

The moral of the story here is that the vast majority of ASU’s top season win totals of the past 40 years have come from seasons for which some measure of above average expectations – though not elite, top-15 caliber expectations – were in place and the Sun Devils took that ball to the house, so to speak.

In all, ASU has had preseason rankings between 19th and 36th (in seasons that all preseason poll voting data is available) on 12 occasions in school history. Seven times among those 12 (1970, ’81, ’82, ’96, 2007, ’13, ’14) the Sun Devils improved upon the preseason ranking by season’s end, with an average improvement from start to finish of almost 12 poll ranking slots per season in those seven years.

From Off the Radar to Good

Stepping down a notch into a category that is a more reasonable one to consider for the 2016 season, we now dissect how Arizona State has performed when expectations have been as they are on a national scale this year for the Sun Devils – minimal to virtually nonexistent.

Before we begin, let’s define this ambiguous term “good”. Due to the fact that in the 10 seasons from 2006-10 only two teams across the nation with fewer than nine wins ended in a season’s final AP Top-25, we can label a “good” season as a step below a traditional caliber of a nationally ranked team, so no more than eight wins.

Note: The website CollegePollArchive.com lists every week of every AP Poll ever distributed with 1999 as the first season to include the votes received by teams that did not make the cut of the preseason top-25.

Of the 17 seasons from 1999-2015, ASU has received one or zero preseason votes seven times – eight if the recently released 2016 poll is counted. This grouping, therefore, represents teams that generally had no national expectation to excel, as is the case this preseason. Those seven seasons have added up to a 45-41 combined record, or an average of 6.4 wins per season. Among those seven seasons, there is no true consistency as there were two four-win seasons, two six-win seasons, two eight-win seasons and a nine-win season.

Ultimately, though in the scope of this sample there have been seasons such as 2002, ’04 and ’12 where ASU overachieved to win eight or nine games, there also has been an even greater total of seasons that resulted in a .500 outcome or worse.

From Off the Radar to Above Average/Great

For the most demonstrative optimists with a Thirst Buster full of Kool-Aid, let’s now discuss the historic data for ASU to vault from off the national radar in the preseason into a measure of national prominence over the span of a single season.

All things considered, this category is the most unicorn-like of the ones we’ve reviewed, as of the seven aforementioned seasons with one or zero preseason AP Poll votes, only once did ASU overachieve to the point of earning a final top-25 ranking (2004).

In seasons prior to 1999 – the first season in which all preseason poll voting data is provided – ASU won nine or more games despite not being ranked in the preseason in 1975, ’86 and ’97, but as mentioned earlier all three teams were ranked after one game, refuting the potential label of those squads being fully “off the radar” on a national scale to begin the year.

What Does This Mean?

Does ASU historically have a tendency to underachieve when expectations are high?

Yes.

Does ASU historically have a tendency to turn above average expectations into great seasons?

Yes.

Does ASU historically have a definite tendency to overachieve when national expectations are virtually nonexistent?

Not yes. But also not a no. Inconclusive.