Sun Devil Science: Breaking Down Pac-12 Non-Conference Schedules
With the start to the 2018 season just days away, the talk of the college football world for the majority of the first month of play – and sporadic points thereafter – will be the non-conference matchups played around the country.
In this edition of Sun Devil Science, we break down the programs played by Pac-12 schools in out of conference play and the impact those matchups have on the 2018 season within the league.
Pac-12 South Division Non-Conference Opponents
Games one through three unless otherwise noted
Arizona State: UTSA (6-5 record in 2017), Michigan State (10-3), at San Diego State (10-3)
Arizona: BYU (4-9), at Houston (7-5), Southern Utah (9-3)#
Colorado: Colorado State* (7-6), at Nebraska (4-8), New Hampshire (9-5)#
UCLA: Cincinnati (4-8), at Oklahoma (12-2), Fresno State (10-4)
USC: UNLV (5-7), at Texas (7-6; Game Three), Notre Dame (10-3; Game 12)
Utah: Weber State (11-3)#, at Northern Illinois (8-5), BYU (4-9; Game 12)
#-FCS program
*-Denver, Colo.
Pac-12 North Division Non-Conference Opponents
Games one through three unless otherwise noted
California: North Carolina (3-9), at BYU (4-9), Idaho State (4-7)#
Oregon: Bowling Green (2-10), Portland State (0-11)#, San Jose State (2-11)
Oregon State: at Ohio State (12-2), Southern Utah (9-3)#, at Nevada (3-9)
Stanford: San Diego State (10-3), UC-Davis (5-6; Game Three)#, at Notre Dame (10-3; Game Five)
Washington: Auburn** (10-4), North Dakota (3-8)#, BYU (4-9; Game Five)
Washington State: at Wyoming (8-5), San Jose State (2-11), Eastern Washington (7-4)#
#-FCS program
**-Atlanta, Ga.
Opponents Ranked in the 2017 Final AP Poll:
· Oklahoma (UCLA) No. 3
· Ohio State (Oregon State) No. 5
· Auburn (Washington) No. 10
· Notre Dame (Stanford, USC) No. 11
· Michigan State (ASU) No. 15)
Opponents Ranked in the 2018 Preseason Coaches Poll:
· Ohio State (Oregon State) No. 3
· Oklahoma (UCLA) No. 4
· Auburn (Washington) No. 10
· Notre Dame (Stanford, USC) No. 11
· Michigan State (ASU) No. 12
· Texas (USC) No. 21
Opponents Ranked in the 2018 Preseason AP Poll:
· Ohio State (Oregon State) No. 5
· Oklahoma (UCLA) No. 7
· Auburn (Washington) No. 9
· Michigan State (ASU) No. 11
· Notre Dame (Stanford, USC) No. 12
· Texas (USC) No. 23
Toughest Schedule: USC
A commonality of USC’s yearly schedule, the Trojans face stiff competition in non-conference play as the Men of Troy are the only team in the league to play two non-conference teams ranked in the preseason top-25.
USC opens with UNLV – by no means a world beater with its 5-7 record last year – but as far as easiest non-conference games go, this stacks up as tougher than most other conference teams.
Some believe Texas will experience a resurgence in 2018 after posting a 7-6 record in 2017 – evidenced by the team’s No. 21 preseason Coaches Poll ranking and No. 23 preseason AP Poll slot – and after the Trojans barely survived an overtime showdown with the Longhorns last year the series this season swings to Austin.
One of the nation’s most prominent rivalries despite featuring teams that do not reside in the same conference, USC hosts Notre Dame, ranked No. 11 in the preseason Coaches Poll and No. 12 in the preseason AP Poll, after suffering a mighty walloping from the Fighting Irish in South Bend last year.
The Trojans were picked by the Pac-12 media to win the south division this year, but USC’s mettle undoubtedly will be tested both in and out of conference play in 2018.
Honorable Mention: Tie – Arizona State and UCLA
The only Pac-12 team to face three bowl-eligible FBS squads from 2017 (though UTSA was not chosen for postseason play), Arizona State faces a bit of an unpredictable non-conference schedule to open 2018.
ASU begins with the aforementioned Roadrunners, a team that gave the Sun Devils a run for their money in San Antonio in 2016 but now faces a substantial talent depletion from last year including the departure of first-round NFL Draft pick Marcus Davenport.
Next, Michigan State travels to Tempe after finishing No. 15 in the final AP Poll last year and is ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP Poll and No. 12 in the preseason Coaches Poll.
The Sun Devils then trip to San Diego State, a team that took down ASU in Tempe a year ago. However, potentially working to the Sun Devils’ favor is SDSU’s loss of both its star running Back Rashaad Penny to the NFL and a pair of its assistant coaches coincidentally to Arizona State.
The Sun Devils and the Bruins have the distinction of being two of three Pac-12 teams to face multiple FBS non-conference opponents to win at least 10 games in 2017 as ASU plays 10-win squads in Michigan State and San Diego State and UCLA travels to play College Football Playoff participant Oklahoma and also hosts Fresno State, which finished 10-4 last year.
UCLA opens with Cincinnati, a historically challenging opponent but one that finished 4-8 both in 2016 and ’17.
For two coaches in their debut seasons at their schools – though with seemingly polar opposite public perceptions – having highly challenging non-conference schedules such as those to be faced by Herm Edwards at Arizona State and Chip Kelly at UCLA are considerable high-risk, high-reward situations.
Easiest Schedule: Oregon
The only Pac-12 team to play all non-conference games at home? Check.
No Power 5 non-conference opponents? Check.
A combined 4-21 record among two FBS opponents and a winless FCS opponent? Yikes, check.
To begin 2018, Oregon faces Bowling Green, San Jose State, and Portland State all in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. In 2017, Bowling Green finished 2-10, San Jose State finished 2-11 and Portland State finished 0-11 – at the FCS level.
An easier start for the Mario Cristobal era in Oregon could not be possible.
Honorable Mention: Tie – Arizona and Utah
Two of four Pac-12 teams not to face a Power 5 non-conference opponent in 2018, the Wildcats and Utes have a mutual non-conference opponent in BYU, though the matchup undoubtedly carries immeasurably more weight for Utah than Arizona. However, the Cougars finished just 4-9 in 2017.
The two Pac-12 south teams also have a Group of Five road contest in Arizona’s trip to Houston and Utah’s to Northern Illinois. Last year, Houston finished 7-5 (including a win over Arizona) and Northern Illinois finished 8-5.
Both Arizona and Utah will play an FCS foe – and a pretty good one for each – as Weber State finished No. 5 in the final FCS Coaches Poll while Southern Utah was ranked No. 13. However, even a returning top-15 FCS opponent is still an FCS opponent.
The relatively easy slate both the Wildcats and Utes figure to face out of league play could provide bits of confidence for two squads that some think could be dark horse south division contenders this year.
Best Matchup: Washington vs. Auburn, Sept. 1 (Atlanta, Ga.)
A clash of two teams ranked in the preseason top-10, the Huskies and the Tigers open the season in what should be one of the season’s most compelling FBS games including out of conference opponents.
If Washington pulls out a victory in what figures to be a partisan Auburn crowd even in a neutral location of Atlanta, the Huskies will be a heavy favorite to return to the College Football Playoff.
Most Challenging Game: Oregon State at Ohio State, Sept. 1
The Beavers lost all 11 games played against FBS opponents in 2017 and have suffered 16 defeats in the past 18 such games dating back to the midway point of the 2016 season. A week one game played at The Horseshoe – kicking off at 9 a.m. back in Corvallis – is a harsh welcome to the 2018 season for Oregon State.
Though the Buckeye program has been under fire of late for off-field issues, Ohio State enters 2018 ranked No. 3 in the preseason Coaches Poll and No. 5 in the preseason AP Poll.
Honorable Mention: UCLA at Oklahoma, Sept. 8
Yes, the Sooners replace Baker Mayfield, Mark Andrews, and other superstars, but the departure of Josh Rosen and others creates quite a bit of a rebuild for the Bruins despite the hoopla surrounding head coach Chip Kelly’s return to the Pac-12 Conference.
A road trip to Norman to face the Sooners – ranked No. 5 in the preseason Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the preseason AP Poll – creates an incredible opportunity for Kelly to reapply his stamp as an elite college coach, but odds likely will be heavily against the visiting team.
Best Chance for an FCS Upset: Oregon State vs. Southern Utah, Sept. 8
The Pac-12’s poorest team in 2017 against an FCS playoff participant and No. 13 ranked team in the final FCS Coaches Poll? The formula for an upset could very well be in place.
Honorable Mention: Washington State vs. Eastern Washington, Sept. 15
Can lightning strike twice? The last time these two teams met, Eastern Washington pulled off the shocker with a three-point victory in Pullman over the Cougars to start the 2016 season. EWU is, as usual, a talented team and finished the 2017 season with a 7-4 record and a No. 22 final ranking in the FCS Coaches Poll. With some advantageous history and several key replacements required for the Washington State program in 2018, the Cougars must be mindful of the possibility of an upset.
Returning First-Team All-Americans faced by Pac-12 Teams:
· DL Nick Bosa, Ohio State (vs. Oregon State)*#
· DB Julian Love, Notre Dame (vs. Stanford, USC)
· DL Ed Oliver, Houston*# (vs. Arizona)
· DL Sutton Smith, Northern Illinois (vs. Utah)
*-Consensus All-American
#-Also a 2018 First-Team Preseason AP All-American
