A somewhat up and down 2021 season is on the upswing again for Stanford, who arrives in Tempe fresh off one of its biggest upsets in program history, defeating no. 3 Oregon, Its second top 15 upset win. Let’s take a closer look at the strengths and deficiencies this cardinal squad has presented.
Stanford Offense
A bit of a quarterback carousel that has spun around for Stanford over the past few seasons, including outgoing transfers, early departures for the NFL, and a few different starters, has almost assuredly come to a halt with the play this season of Tanner McKee.
McKee, a former four-star prospect from the 2018 class who spent the 2018-19 seasons on an LDS mission before returning last year to see limited action, was not the game one starter, but after outperforming Jack West, he has claimed full control of the QB1 spot from week two to the present day.
Hailing from Corona (Calif.) Centennial High School, the same program that produced memorable Sun Devils such as Brandon Magee, Will Sutton, Vontaze Burfict, and others, McKee has shown the stuff to potentially be the next great Stanford quarterback as he has thrown 11 touchdowns with no interceptions while averaging 243.8 passing yards per game in his four starts and completing 64.5% of his passes on the year.
He is in an elite company as one of only three FBS players with more than ten touchdowns with zero interceptions as he joins potential high NFL Draft picks Matt Corrall of Ole Miss and Malik Willis of Liberty in that category.
A tall, pocket passer (6-6, 225), though McKee can move his feet when lanes arrive, he is not as dynamic a rusher as the past four quarterbacks ASU has faced. In all, he has 71 net rush yards on 29 carries – 30 of which came on one scamper – with two touchdowns.
Though McKee was banged up a bit last week against Oregon, he is not expected to be limited in any noticeable capacity this week against ASU.
Ultra-versatile Nathaniel Peat has emerged as one of the better all-purpose players in the Pac-12 this season as he leads Stanford with 42 carries for 274 yards with two scores. He ranks fourth in the league in yards-per-carry average (6.5), has the longest run of the year by any Pac-12 player (87 yards), and as an established kick returner, he ranks seventh in the conference in all-purpose yards per game (105.0)
One of the Pac-12’s top rushers in the condensed 2020 season, Austin Jones, last year rushed for 550 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 21 passes for 156 yards – all in just six games. His productivity in 2021 has dipped dramatically so far, as he averages just 37.0 rushing yards per game with totals of 148 yards on 35 carries with no touchdowns in four games played. In three of those four games, he was held to 30 rushing yards or less.
Casey Filkins could also be a contributor in the run game but has generally limited numbers of nine carries for 41 yards in four games this season.
Stanford comes to Tempe forced to accommodate a substantial loss in its offense due to an injury suffered last week by wide receiver Brycen Tremayne.
One of the most productive wide receivers in the country, Tremayne is second in the Pac-12 and tied for 12th nationally with five touchdown catches – exactly one each game – while also notching 20 receptions for 245 yards.
Already Stanford’s leader in receptions (22) and receiving yards (273), Elijah Higgins likely will have to take on an even greater workload in the pass game to compensate for the loss of Tremayne. A big-bodied receiver (6-3, 225), Higgins enters Friday night with momentum as he had a career-high in receptions last week against Oregon (six) and the previous week notched a career-high in receiving yards (103) versus UCLA.
Also, look for John Humphreys to take on an elevated role in addition to Higgins. A large receiver (6-5, 201) similar to many others on the Stanford roster, he ranks third on the team with 13 catches for 205 yards with one touchdown. He, too, comes to Tempe on a positive note as he set a single-game career-high in receptions (four) against Oregon, scored his first collegiate touchdown, and matched his career-high in receiving yards (53) versus the Ducks.
Bryce Farrell is the only player listed on this week’s depth chart at wide receiver beside Higgins and Humphreys to have caught a pass this year, as he has two receptions for 80 yards with a touchdown.
Always a strength of the Cardinal offense, per usual, this year’s Stanford team has a standout tight end in Benjamin Yurosek, who has nine receptions for 123 yards in four games played. Between the injury suffered by Tremayne and the damage done last week by UCLA’s Greg Dulcich to ASU’s defense, Yurosek is a legitimate candidate to have an impact performance on Friday night.
Tucker Fisk sees substantial action at tight end in primarily a blocking role (no receptions thus far in 2021), while he also earns double duty on defense as he is listed as the top backup at both defensive end positions and has nine tackles with a sack in four games played.
The Cardinal offensive line figures to feature tackle Walter Rouse and guard Barrett Miller on the left side and guard Branson Bragg and tackle Myles Hinton on the right side with center Drake Nugent.
With the exception of an absence by Bragg last week, this group of five has been the starting line in each game this season.
Stanford Offense Summary
In what is very uncharacteristic compared to the Cardinal teams of the majority of the past 10-plus years, Stanford has a statistically very poor run game as they rank 106th nationally and 11th behind Arizona in the Pac-12 by averaging just 115.0 yards per game on the ground.
Peat is a versatile threat and Jones last year proved to be a high tier back in this league, but the total body of work through five games has been much less than impressive.
That said, the emergence of McKee at quarterback has enabled Stanford to have prowess in the pass game, though that facet suffered a major blow with the loss of Tremayne. Though Stanford ranks just seventh in the league in passing yards per game (233.8), the Cardinal stand tied with USC for the most touchdown passes in the league (11).
Statistically, ASU poses the most challenging defensive threat that Stanford has faced to date in 2021 as the Sun Devils lead the conference in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense, and sacks.
Stanford Defense
As it has seemingly for ages, Stanford operates out of a 3-4 base defense with ends Thomas Booker and Ryan Johnson working around tackle Dalyn Wade-Perry in the starting lineup.
Booker, a Second-Team All-Pac-12 pick in 2020, leads all Stanford defensive linemen with 29 tackles, including 2.5 for loss with 1.5 sacks. Wade-Perry has 11 tackles, including 3.0 for loss with a sack, while Johnson has nine tackles on the year.
At linebacker, Stephen Herron and Jordan Fox are listed as the starters outside, while four players are listed as candidates for the two starting inside linebacker positions. Levani Damuni has started all five games at inside linebacker, with Ricky Miezan having started four with him, but Jacob Mangum-Farrar started last week. Those three linebackers make up three of the four options to start at the two inside spots, according to Stanford’s depth chart.
Damuni, an Honorable Mention selection for the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year award last season, leads the team with 35 tackles, while Miezan ranks second on the team with 30 while tying for the team lead with 3.0 tackles-for-loss. Herron leads the team with 3.0 sacks and has 14 total tackles, while Fox has 22 tackles, including 2.0 for loss, and Mangum-Farrar has 16 tackles.
In the secondary, Kyu Blu Kelly and Nicolas Toomer will be joined by Kendall Williamson at strong safety, either Alaka’i Gilman or Phoenix Brophy Prep product Noah Williams at free safety, and Jimmy Wyrick at nickel back.
Kelly earned Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 distinction last season and is trending toward much greater accolades this year, as he has 26 tackles and team-highs of two interceptions and has a Pac-12 best seven pass breakups. He ranks fourth nationally in total passes defended at 1.8 per game and fourth nationally in total pass breakups.
Williamson tops the defensive backs with his 30 total tackles and also has three pass breakups. Williams has 17 tackles, Wyrick has 12 tackles and an interception, Toomer has 11 tackles, while Gilman has nine tackles on the year.
Stanford Defense Summary
In what seems way off-brand for Stanford, the Cardinal have an atrocious rush defense this season as Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac-12 and 119th nationally, allowing 212.8 rushing yards per game while also allowing 4.95 yards per carry and yielding 12 rushing touchdowns on the year – a list of statistics that has to make ASU’s run game, which is tied for fourth nationally with 18 rushing touchdowns, collectively drool more than just a little bit.
Guided by the prominence of All-America candidate Kyu Blu Kelly, Stanford’s pass defense is considerably better than his rush defense as the Cardinal are tied for 35th nationally by allowing just 191.0 passing yards per game.
It’s a rational expectation that ASU will run the ball and push Stanford to stop them while peppering in shots over the top to the likes of Ricky Pearsall, Curtis Hodges, and others who have had recent success in finding downfield holes in opposing defenses.
Stanford Special Teams
On Tuesday, it was announced that Stanford kicker Joshua Karty will be out for Friday’s game. He’s connected on 4-of-7 field goals this year with a long of 46 and has handled all kickoff duties thus far.
In his place, either punter Ryan Sanborn or true freshman Emmet Kenney will fill in on field goals, PATs, and kickoffs.
Sanborn has experience in the role, as in 2019, he connected on 7-of-9 field goals with a long of 48 yards. He has exclusively punted for Stanford in 2020 and ’21 and this year averages 44.96 yards on 26 punts.
Kenney has yet to appear in a college game.
Stanford has a pair of dynamic kick returners as Nathaniel Peat averages 28.7 yards on seven returns while Bryce Farrell averages 34.0 yards on his two returns.
On punts, Casey Filkins averages 14.3 yards on seven returns, while Farrell has one 15-yard return to his credit.
Overall Summary
As big as this game is for ASU to extend to a 3-0 start in conference play for the first time since 2012 and just the fifth time this century (joining 2002, 2007, and 2011), the game carries significant weight for Stanford as well, a team that after upsetting Oregon a week ago has the potential to be a factor in the Pac-12 North.
On paper, the matchups play to ASU’s strengths as the Cardinal rush defense, one of the poorest at the Power Five level, goes up against the Sun Devil rush offense that averages nearly 205 yards per game, while only three teams in the country have more rushing touchdowns than ASU’s 18. Meanwhile, though Stanford has found success through the air – certainly so compared to its paltry ground game – Arizona State has the nation’s seventh-best pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed and leads the Pac-12 with 3.20 sacks per game.
Naturally, because the psychology of the Sun Devil fan base is never a very stable thing, followers of the maroon and gold are deathly afraid of a letdown performance – ESPECIALLY given the fact that ASU is, as of this moment, a double-digit favorite over the visiting Cardinal.
Under Herm Edwards, ASU is 3-2 in the game after a victory over a top-25 team with wins against Arizona after No. 6 Oregon and Washington State after No. 15 California in 2019 and a victory over UCLA after No. 16 Utah in 2018 and defeats to Colorado after No. 18 Michigan State in 2019 and San Diego State after No. 15 Michigan State in 2018.
Much like Olympic gold medalist Kurt Angle preached during the early days of his then-WWF career around the turn of the 21st century, ASU would benefit from implementing Angle’s three “Is” of intensity, integrity, and intelligence.
Intensity will be integral in this game as the Sun Devils cannot afford to overlook its opponent this Friday and will need to execute a similarly sound game plan to what it did at UCLA – especially what we saw in the second half against the Bruins.
Integrity? Though the penalties have decreased the past two weeks compared to earlier in the season – particularly the flood of fouls at BYU – ASU has still had costly slip-ups and had early momentum in Pasadena stalled by inopportune flags. Penalties in some form or fashion are inevitable, but the Sun Devils must find a way to eliminate the avoidable ones.
Lastly, intelligent play on offense, defense, and special teams will be critical so that the Sun Devils veer toward attacking Stanford’s deficiencies while also preventing special teams blunders from extending otherwise undue opportunities to the visiting team.
As ASU has progressed since its lone loss of the season, the Sun Devils have provided enough substance to validate their standing as a strong favorite in this game. However, as Oregon learned last week, Stanford cannot be taken lightly, and both preparation and execution must be as focused and crisp.
Familiar Faces
· ASU OL Henry Hattis played at Stanford from 2016-19 before transferring to ASU
· Stanford DE Anthony Franklin (Phoenix Pinnacle HS), DB Donjae Logan (Mesa Desert Ridge HS), and DB Noah Williams (Phoenix Brophy Prep) are Arizona natives
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