Scouting Report: Utah at ASU

By Erik Pierson

The non-conference season is in the books, and Arizona State (9-3 overall) can now turn its attention to the Pac-12 opener against Utah on Thursday night.

The non-conference was a wild rollercoaster for the Sun Devils, who experienced the highest of highs (wins against top-20 teams Mississippi State and Kansas), and the lowest of lows (a stunning loss at home to Princeton).

If there’s anything the first two months has proven it’s the fact that ASU can beat—or lose to—anyone in the country.

For what’s it worth, ASU still has the best résumé of any Pac-12 team heading to into league play, and despite the overall struggles of the conference, most experts still consider the Sun Devils a legitimate NCAA Tournament team -- for now.

However, as we all know, Pac-12 play has not been kind to Bobby Hurley since he took over the program in 2015. In fact, Hurley has not had a winning record (in conference play) in any of his three seasons.

In his first year at the helm, the Sun Devils had a 5-13 record in league play. The following year, they were 7-11. And even last season, after going undefeated in non-conference action, the team stumbled down the stretch and finished with an 8-10 mark.

There are, however, a few reasons to feel cautiously optimistic about the Sun Devils’ chances in conference play this year.

First and foremost, the team has been waiting for this moment. Since the end of last season, the message from Hurley and staff has been clear: ASU must perform better during the Pac-12 season in 2019. Another late-season collapse is not acceptable.

Secondly, this team is built to win “ugly” games. For the first time in recent memory, the Sun Devils can rebound and defend at an elite level. That’s important because once conference play rolls around, a team’s offense can often take a dip, as a result of better scouting reports and familiarity amongst conference rivals. Defense, on the other hand, will always travel.

And finally, let’s face it -- the conference is terrible this season. If there’s ever been a year when ASU could win the Pac-12 regular season title, it’s this one. Outside of a bad loss to Princeton, the Sun Devils were the best (and most consistent) team in non-conference play.

It has been a transitional year for Utah (6-6), who enters Thursday’s matchup on the heels of 86-71 loss to sixth-ranked Nevada.

This is unfamiliar territory for the Utes, who have been a model of consistency in recent years. In fact, they have finished in the top-4 of the conference for the last four seasons. (Arizona is the only other Pac-12 school to accomplish the feat during that span.)

In an attempt to find some stability, coach Larry Krystowiak has tinkered with his lineup throughout the season. He has used six different starting lineups through the first 12 games and seems to have settled on a rotation in recent weeks.

In the last three games, he has utilized his top two scorers—Sedrick Barefield (15 PPG) and Donnie Tillman (10 PPG)—in reserve roles.

The recent lineup change seems to have motivated Barefield, who is thriving in his new role off the bench. The senior guard, who erupted for 33 points against Nevada, is averaging 21.3 per game over the last three contests.

Outside of Barefield, Utah has relied on a youth movement this season. Four of the team’s top five scorers are underclassmen: Tillman, Riley Battin, Timmy Allen and Both Gach.

The Utes’ young core has been equal parts exciting and frustrating. As is often the case with younger players, they have been plagued by inconsistent play.

The primary reason for Utah’s inconsistency: a spotty defense.

Unlike most Krystowiak-led teams, Utah has struggled on that end of the floor. Their defensive efficiency, which ranks 271st nationally according to KenPom, is among the worst in the conference. Opponents have shot 46.1 percent from the field against the Utes—the only Pac-12 team that has allowed a higher percentage this season is Cal.

If the youngsters don’t make substantial strides on defense, it could be a long season in Salt Lake City.

Probable Starters:

G – Remy Martin (12.2 PPG, 3.4 APG) / G – Parker Van Dyke (6.5 PPG, 1.8 APG)

G – Luguentz Dort (18.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG) / G – Both Gach (8.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG)

F – Kimani Lawrence (11.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG) / F – Timmy Allen (9.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG)

F – Zylan Cheatham (11.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG) / F – Riley Battin (8.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG)

F – Romello White (9.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG) / C – Jayce Johnson (5.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG)

Why ASU Can Win: The Sun Devils continue to dominate the glass and defend a high level. On the season, ASU averages 44 rebounds per game, which ranks fifth nationally. They also pull down 14 offensive boards per contest, which creates second-chance opportunities and compensates for the team’s poor shooting (a league-worst 43.2 percent).

The team’s adjusted defensive efficiency, which ranks 46th nationally according to KenPom, is among the best in the Pac-12. Even in defeat, ASU’s defense looked sharp on Saturday. They held Princeton 67 points and 35.1 percent shooting from the field.

The sign of a good team is being able to bounce back from adversity. Saturday’s loss to Princeton was embarrassing – that’s undeniable. However, it should provide extra motivation for the Sun Devils, who head into Thursday night’s matchup as an 11.5-point favorite.

Why Utah Can Win: The Utes trotted into Tempe last season and eeked out an 80-77 win in overtime behind a heroic performance from Sedrick Barefield, who nailed a three-pointer as time expired in regulation to force overtime.

Barefield, who scored all 17 of his points in the second half and OT, is a dangerous player. He’s a streaky shooter, and can sometimes force the issue. However, when he has it going, Barefield is capable of dropping 30 on any given night. He’s the type of player that can single-handedly pull out a victory for his team.

Key Stat: The Sun Devils have been out-rebounded only once this season (against Utah State), and their rebounding margin of plus-9.8 per game ranks 11th best in the nation.

X-Factor: Which version of Luguentz Dort will show up? Through the first eight games, the freshman guard looked unstoppable. He averaged 22 points while shooting over 44 percent from the field. In the last four games, however, he’s been mired in a terrible slump. He’s averaged only 10.3 points on 9-of-45 shooting (20 percent) from the field.

Prediction: ASU 74, Utah 66

Game Info:

When: 6:00 pm MST

Where: Wells Fargo Arena – Tempe, Ariz.

TV/Radio: Pac-12 Network / 620 AM