Licking their wounds after a double-digit 82-70 run-in loss by the Colorado Buffaloes, ASU (11-12, 5-7 Pac-12) tries to avoid a six-game losing streak facing a Utah squad who lost their first home contest of the year on Thursday, falling 105-99 in triple-overtime against Arizona. The Utes (15-8, 6-6) are certainly not a squad that would classify as a favorable opponent for a Sun Devil team trying to pick up their first conference road win since a 71-69 victory on December 31, 2023.
Utah’s 12-1 home record is in sharp contrast to their 1-5 mark on the road. If that trend continues, it may hurt their chances of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday, but their performance in Salt Lake City is the reason why Arizona State is currently an 11.5-point underdog. And that also puts into perspective the fact that the 82-70 ASU win in Tempe on January 4 is largely meaningless.
Head coach Craig Smith is in his third season at the helm, making the cross-state journey from Utah State, a program he took twice to the NCAA tournament in three years. With a virtual guarantee of eclipsing his 17 wins from last year, the expectation from Smith is for him to lead the Utes to their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2016. With a NET and a Torvik ranking of 36, this is a team that is on the right path to achieve this.
The headline player for the Utes, who hold a 115 score in adjusted offensive efficiency (Torvik), is 7’ 0 fifth-year center Branden Carlson. Carlson was a 2022-2023 All-Pac 12 selection, and Carlson has solidified himself as one of the best big men in the league, who has tallied 31 blocks on the season. Carlson averages a team-best 16.6 points per game while also leading the field goal percentage category, shooting 46.9%. Carlson’s length and size will once again prove to be a tough task for the ASU defense, who saw him score a team-leading 19 points in the Tempe matchup.
The frontcourt complement to Carlson is senior guard Gabe Madsen. The 6’ 6 Cincinnati transfer has started in all 22 games he’s played, averaging 13.2. Madsen is a terrific three-point shooter, converting at a 42.5% clip from beyond the arc, and also shoots free throws well at a team-leading 76.9% rate. The last time ASU and Utah met, Madsen had a season-high five assists as the attention he brings as a shooter allows him to dish the ball to his teammates, but he had arguably his weakest game of the year the first time he faced the Sun Devils scoring three points.
Utah is a well-rounded offensive unit with nearly five players averaging in the double digits. A key piece off the bench is a 6’ 8 sophomore center, Keba Keita, who has started five games this year playing as an understudy to Carlson and providing additional size in lineups. Keita averages 9.9 points and scored seven points against ASU back in January. Yet, he is also coming off one of his best performances of the season, scoring 18 points against Arizona, giving the Wildcats all they could handle in the paint.
Collectively, the Utes have shown the capability to play an effective zone defense in long stretches and will be hoping to register a much better performance in that department against Arizona State. In the first meeting this season, the Sun Devils busted that scheme, shooting 42.9% from three-point range, with senior guard Jose Perez going 4-5 from that distance and junior guard Adam Miller converting 3-5 of his long-distance shot attempts. Needless to say, a repeat offensive display by Arizona State, who overall shot 50% from the field in that matchup, would be a resounding answer to whatever scheme Utah was going to employ on this end of the court.
ASU’s calling card of being a formidable transition offense team was another significant factor in the win against Utah, capitalizing on their 15 turnovers and scoring 18 fast break points. As vertically gifted as Utah is with eight players listed at 6’ 7 or taller, Arizona State utilized its athleticism advantage to create a more up-tempo game, which will be a necessary ingredient for a possible upset.
Whilst ASU came out in a four-guard lineup against Utah that night, it’s a starting cast that may be a thing of the past these days. In the game against Colorado, head coach Bobby Hurley had sophomore center Shawn Phillips Jr. replace Perez in the starting five. It was a direct result of an incident between Perez and Hurley at the end of the first half against Cal last week that led to a disciplinary measure that resulted in Perez’s not playing in that second half in the double-digit home loss.
However, with the emergence of the 7’ 0 Phillips in recent games (scoring double digits in three of the last four contests), having him on the floor at tip-off and playing extended minutes can prove beneficial against a lengthy team such as Utah. Consequently, if Hurley wants a better matchup against Carlson in the paint, he might utilize Phillips more often than the 6’ 9 Alonzo Gaffney.
While Phillips will have to have a big game, ASU will desperately still need a boost from Perez, who had 26 points in the first matchup, and his struggles as of late have undoubtedly adversely impacted his team. The guard had one point in one half of play versus Cal and a trifling two points in 30 minutes against Colorado yesterday (1-9 from the floor).
Perez will need some help, though, as ASU will try to duplicate the torrid shooting average it had in the first meeting. A key to that success will have to be Miller, who has been unpredictable offensively, scoring double digits in two of his last six games. Miller had a trio of three-point shots against Utah, and his fourth-best scoring game of the season of 14 points took place in the loss to Colorado. Miller’s ability to bounce back the way he did versus the Buffs may be the slice of optimism that can strike more confidence leading into Saturday night’s game.
Losing seven out of the last eight, the Sun Devils’ desire to finally register a win cannot be overstated. Resiliency was exhibited in high doses during a 4-0 start to Pac-12 play. It’s a trait that did somewhat showcase itself in the Colorado contest, as ASU fell behind 21-3 after the first six minutes of the contest but was still able to bring down the deficit to four points in the second half. It may not be a sounding building block ahead of another challenging road game, but perseverance is a necessity, not a luxury, for an Arizona State team anxious to turn the page and not tie the six-game losing streak it endured during the 2020-21 campaign.
Join your fellow Sun Devil fans on our premium message board, the Devils’ Huddle, run by the longest-tenured Sun Devil sports beat writer, to discuss this article and other ASU football, basketball, and recruiting topics. Not a member yet? Sign up today and get your daily fix of Sun Devil news!
