As fast as ASU’s 2023-24 season commenced, it is now just about a week away from possibly coming to an end. The last-ever Pac-12 regular-season contest is set for Pauley Pavilion, as both UCLA (14-16, 9-10 Pac-12) and Arizona State (14-16, 8-11) surely have their eyes set on getting one last win ahead of next week’s Pac-12 Tournament.
This season, the hosts have not met the level of success and are quite the fall from being a Sweet Sixteen team last season to being below .500. UCLA, like ASU, has to win out all of its games in Las Vegas next week to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. ASU did not make that far in that same NCAA Tournament, but it showed that it was possibly taking a step in the right direction following a 23-win campaign. This was before Bobby Hurley was left scrambling to build a roster with ten new players, and now, much like the Bruins is staring at a losing record at the end of the regular season.
Arizona State lost 81-73 to USC last night in the first leg of their Los Angeles road trip. The Trojans were red-hot from the three-point line, shooting 50% and 25-30 from the free-throw line. Although the score was knotted at 32 at the half, ASU’s defense in the second half doomed their chances to earn Hurley his first-ever win at the Galen Center.
Across town, UCLA hosted Arizona, and the Wildcats handed the Bruins a defeat in what should’ve been their last-ever home game as a member of the Pac-12 conference. In the 88-65 loss, UCLA simply did not have the firepower offensively to overcome the visitors, an ongoing season story for a team that ranks dead last in the league in points per game (66.2).
According to Torvik basketball statistics, UCLA scores 108.0 in adjusted offensive efficiency, which ranks 154th in the nation. Defensively, though, UCLA scores 100.2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which ranks just outside the top 50 at No. 51.
The Bruins’ struggles, including shooting an adjusted field goal percentage of 46.0 (which ranks 333rd), can be blamed on star players like Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. leaving the program. Nonetheless, some key players have kept UCLA in competition with Gonzaga and Marquette, while the Bruins have posted quality conference wins against Oregon and Colorado.
Adem Bona, a 6’ 10” sophomore forward from Nigeria, was a huge part of last year’s Sweet 16 run. This year, Bona has continued to solidify himself in Westwood as one of the teams’ leaders, averaging 12.1 points and 5.8 rebounds. Bona also boasts an impressive 57.7 field goal percentage.
In last night’s matchup, Bona had an on-pace performance against the Wildcats, scoring 10 and adding five boards. As UCLA is better defensively, it is because of efforts like Bona’s five blocks last night that can impact an opponent’s flow. The Sun Devils are all too aware of Bona’s defensive capabilities, as evident in his seven blocks against them back on January 17th, which was a career-high for the Bruin standout.
When the Bruins do need a score, freshman Sebastian Mack has led the way with an average of 12.6 points. The 6’ 3” guard from Chicago also averages 3.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists. Besides Mack, Serbia native Lazar Stefanovic is right behind Mack and Bona scoring-wise with 11.7 points. The 6’ 7” Utah transfer is also a fantastic free-throw shooter, standing at 86.6 percent.
Head coach Mick Cronin has put his team in a position to win games and was, for a while, possibly changing their narrative on the season. UCLA’s January 14th win against Washington marked the start of an 8-1 stretch, with the only loss at Mckale Center taking Arizona down to the wire. Yet, the tide has turned since then, and leading up to tomorrow, UCLA is on a five-game losing streak.
ASU surely wants vengeance for the 68-66 loss in Tempe, a game where the Bruins came back from 15 points down to take down the Devils. Stefanovic had 18 points, and Brandon Williams added 13, but the true storyline that night was four technical fouls assessed to Arizona State, all in the second half. Sun Devil forward Shawn Phillips Jr. had two quick ones leading to his ejection, which only added to UCLA’s momentum and dominance in the paint. This matchup may be an opportune time for ASU to strike. That frustrating loss led to the infamous “were the bad guys” postgame speech given by head coach Bobby Hurley.
Arizona State will have to control the paint, but it also hopes that a collapsing defense down low doesn’t expose them to torrid three-point shooting as it did against the Trojans. Unlike USC, though, which is in the top five in the conference when shooting from three, UCLA is ranked 11th, ironically only ahead of ASU. Nonetheless, if Alonzo Gaffney, Bryant Selebangue, and Phillips Jr. can handle Bona down low, the Sun Devils could post much better defensive numbers.
Offensively, ASU is going to need someone to step up on a greater scale. In the first meeting, Arizona State did have four Devils in double digits, but it simply was not enough to counteract the stout Bruins defense. ASU will either need a bigger performance like Jose Perez’s 25 points from last night or have Jamiya Neal, who scored just once in double digits in the last four games.
Gaffney can be an x-factor in this one since both teams like to use their forwards (Bona and Gaffney) at the five position. What separates the two is Gaffney’s comfort in shooting the three-ball. To be fair, it’s an area where the ASU player has struggled tremendously (25.4% shooting), but at times, he has shown signs of life to hit timely shots, which possibly can take Bona out of the paint and nullify his rim protection abilities and rebounding, opening lanes for the Sun Devils guards to drive. Additionally, Gaffney only had three points in the first meeting, a contest, whereas a couple more points could have made the difference between a loss and a win.
ASU will also have to brace for some more zone defense. USC gave the Sun Devils some looks last night, which led to their downfall in not being able to keep up from beyond the arc. Frankie Collins, Adam Miller, and Neal will need to be ready to drain some open long-range shots at a higher clip than usual.
Arizona State’s most notable trait in their victories was their suffocating defense, and that trait has to come up in spades against this UCLA team. Executing that aspect could generate some momentum going into the Pac-12 tournament, and if they were to back into next week with three consecutive losses and dropping five of their last six games, it would be hard to fathom that state of affairs leading to an improbable four wins in four days and punching a ticket into the Big Dance.
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