With 31 regular-season games, any odd matchup doesn’t usually move the needle on a team’s season. However, for Arizona State (11-7, 2-5 Big 12), its latest victory on the road against No. 23 West Virginia could prove to be the timeliest win of its season. On Saturday, the maroon and gold take on a perennial powerhouse in No. 3 Iowa State (16-2, 6-1 Big 12). Just seven days prior to the contest, ASU’s confidence heading into the matchup would have been lacking, at best. Yet the recent results for both programs provide head coach Bobby Hurley and his team with a renewed sense of perspective.
On Tuesday, the Sun Devils ended their four-game losing streak by defeating the ranked Mountaineers 65-57. They held the hosts to just 31% shooting from the floor and 13.8% from beyond the arc. The defensive effort began with limiting senior guard Javon Small, who leads the Big 12 in points per game with 19.5. Small was restricted to just 14 points on Tuesday, shooting 2-of-11 from the field, with most of his points coming from the free-throw line. Hurley used senior guard Adam Miller as the primary defender against Small, building the defensive game plan around stopping the former AZ Compass Prep player.
“Our defense was great, particularly individual defense by Adam Miller, who’s a guy on the perimeter that takes the toughest matchup,” Hurley said. “I thought he really exerted a lot of energy trying to guard Small. I have a ton of respect for him, and watching film on him, he’s playing at an All-American level. For him to do that type of work defensively, I think it was great.”
Small’s impact was evident in the Cyclones’ loss in Morgantown, where the 6-foot-3 player scored 27 points in West Virginia’s upset 64-57 victory. The defeat snapped a 12-game winning streak for Iowa State that had dated back to before Thanksgiving. Showing unfamiliar signs of weakness against the same program ASU faced, the Sun Devils gained some of their lost momentum.
Iowa State also played on Tuesday, bouncing back with a 108-83 win over UCF. The Cyclones scored 54 points in each half and had four players in double figures, including junior forward Joshua Jefferson, who scored 30 points.
The 108-point outburst was Iowa State’s best offensive showing of the year, coming just days after a season-low 57-point effort in the loss to West Virginia. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s team shot 56% from the field and over 40% from three-point range, showing that their dud against WVU was not a sign of things to come.
Offensively, Iowa State has been one of the most consistent teams in the Big 12. The Cyclones lead the conference in points per game (85.1) and field goal percentage (47.9). They also rank second in scoring margin at 18.9 points per game.
Defensively, Iowa State’s resume is just as impressive. The Cyclones lead the Big 12 in steals per game at 9.94, a mark that ranks 11th nationally. This statistic contributes to their critical victories in the turnover game, as Otzelberger’s team is second in the conference in turnover margin and third in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Iowa State has proven itself to be one of the best programs in the Big 12 and the nation this season. With a conference-leading 5-2 record against Quad-1 opponents and a 3-1 record against AP Top 25 teams, no team that ASU has faced this season is as decorated through 18 games.
Six Cyclones average at least nine points per game, but the 6-foot-4 senior guard Curtis Jones leads the way, scoring 17.8 points per game, which ranks second in the conference. Unlike Small, Jones uses a slower pace to score, relying on his strength and patience to rise up for shots anywhere inside the arc. He also shoots the three at a high clip, connecting on 39.5% of his attempts. Jones has the ability to hit shots from deep, including three long-range bombs against Kansas in a Top 10 AP clash on Jan. 15.
His backcourt partner, senior Keyshaun Gilbert, is just as dangerous. Averaging 15.7 points per game, Gilbert leads Iowa Statein assists at 4.9 per game. Though he’s not as prolific from the outside—shooting just above 30%—he doesn’t take a high volume of three-pointers, instead creating plays for himself and others around the basket.
The forwards round out Iowa State’s well-rounded roster. Jefferson, who averages 12.8 points and leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game, dominates in the paint. Meanwhile, 6-foot-8 forward Milan Momcilovic is the team’s sharpshooter, leading Iowa State with a 44% shooting percentage from three-point range. The sophomore is always on the move, waiting for open looks from deep, where he does much of his damage.
From ASU’s perspective, stopping Iowa State's offensive onslaught requires a more holistic approach compared to their game plan against West Virginia. Protecting the paint will be crucial, as Otzelberger’s team excels in pick-and-roll actions, creating mismatches and allowing its athletic players to put pressure on the rim.
“Having a physical screen allows the ability for the guard to get downhill and create situations where it’s 2-on-1 or 3-on-2,” Otzelberger said Thursday ahead of the ASU matchup. “When we’re in that spot, it makes it tougher on the bigs as rim protectors.”
Saturday will present a tough test for freshman forward Jayden Quaintance. The third-leading shot blocker in the nation (3.17), Quaintance has been dominant inside on both ends, particularly in recent games. Despite the Sun Devils’ losing streak, Quaintance set a career-high with 20 points against UCF.
For the 17-year-old, dealing with the size, strength, and experience of Iowa State presents a significant challenge. Hurley will likely rely on junior center Shawn Phillips Jr. to support Quaintance inside. The 7-footer averages just 3.5 points and four rebounds in 12.8 minutes per game, but he gave a major boost against WVU, contributing seven points and six rebounds in 17 minutes.
ASU continues to play shorthanded without freshman guard Joson Sanon, who has missed five of the last six games due to a mild ankle sprain. Sanon, the team’s second-leading scorer at 12.8 points per game, has provided a scoring spark off the bench. In his absence, Hurley’s team has struggled to score consistently, with only two games surpassing 70 points during that stretch.
If the Sun Devils hope to come out victorious, they’ll need to improve in the turnover battle. Iowa State ranks second in the Big 12 in turnover margin, while ASU sits at second-worst, with a negative ratio of -1.94 per game. No matter the result, ASU has struggled with turnovers all season, committing 10 or more turnovers in every game. Facing a team that leads the Big 12 in steals is a daunting task, and turnovers have proven to be a major issue for Hurley’s squad.
Adding to the turnover problem, ASU is last in the Big 12 in steals, averaging just 5.61 per game. The first and most crucial factor in determining this game will be ASU’s ability to take care of the basketball.
Saturday’s game marks the first time ASU and Iowa State will meet as conference opponents, as well as the first matchup between the two since 1997. In their three previous meetings, the host has won each time, with Iowa State holding a 2-1 record. Now that they’re in the same league, this new chapter presents ASU not only with difficult competition on a nightly basis but also an opportunity for Hurley’s squad to rewrite the narrative of its season after a rough stretch just a week ago.
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