On the back of three consecutive defeats in conference play, a road trip out east for Arizona State (10-6, 1-4 Big 12) carries large implications on the outlook of its 2024-25 season. The program has struggled to find consistency on either end of the floor over its last few games, dropping both matchups in a two-game home stretch against Baylor and UCF. It’ll find itself facing off against an opponent that's also lacking form in Cincinnati (11-5, 1-4 Big 12) on Saturday at Fifth Third Arena.
After scoring just 20 points in the first half against the Bears in an eventual overtime loss, an 89-point game on Tuesday would appear to be a drastic turnaround. Yet, allowing 95 points, including a career-high 40-point game from Knights forward junior Keyshaun Hall, it proved that the Sun Devils could be defeated on either end of the spectrum, failing to find balance on either end of the court.
On Tuesday, ASU shot an impressive 52% from the field and 50% from three-point range, marking its most efficient offensive showing of the season despite coming up short—an awkward sign for head coach Bobby Hurley, who said after the game, “I think I felt worse on Saturday, to be honest. I thought we played pretty well [Tuesday].”
So, how do the Sun Devils pivot from here? The most recent defeats set up Saturday as a critical game on the road against a Bearcats team that just won their first conference game, defeating winless Colorado 68-62 in Boulder on Wednesday.
On the offensive side of the ball, Cincinnati is unlikely to find itself in a shootout, averaging just 72.2 points per game—good for No. 15 in the conference. Head coach Wes Miller prefers a slower-tempo style of play. This is reflected in the program’s 45.4% shooting from the field, good for No. 10 in the Big 12, placing it ahead of ASU (44.9%).
Although the Bearcats don’t score in bunches, they share the offensive load evenly across the starting lineup. Leading scorer, 6-foot-6 guard Dan Skillings Jr., averages 12.6 points per game while shooting 38% from beyond the arc. His scoring partner, 6-foot-8 forward Simas Lukošius, a senior, averages 12.5 points to complement. The Lithuanian struggled in the early days of Big 12 play, failing to score in double figures in his first four league games. However, he finished with 16 points Wednesday night against the Buffs, displaying his talented skill set.
The “X” factor in this game will come down to the supporting cast of the Bearcats, which includes two starters: sophomore guard Jizzle James and junior forward Dillon Mitchell. The Florida natives both average just above 10 points per game. Their impact isn’t limited to putting the ball in the basket. Mitchell leads the team in steals (1.6 per game), while James distributes more assists than anyone else on the roster (4.3 per game).
The defensive side of the ball is the Bearcats' calling card, as they rank second-best in the league in opponent points per game (60.6) and No. 1 in opponent three-point percentage (26.9%). The only team in the country with a better opponent three-point percentage is No. 6 Tennessee (24.9%).
Finding creative ways to score against Cincinnati is going to be another challenge for Hurley. The Sun Devils have proven to be susceptible to extreme scoring droughts, such as the 20-point first half against Baylor, noted earlier, and a 13-point second-half showing at Allen Field House against Kansas. They’ll likely be without the services of five-star freshman guard Joson Sanon for another game. A mild ankle sprain suffered against BYU on New Year’s Eve has caused him to miss three of the last four contests.
When eyeing common opponents between the programs, defeats to Baylor and Kansas align, along with the lone conference wins collected at the expense of Colorado. Breaking down the victories, ASU’s domination against the Buffs was impressive, winning by a 20-point margin. The team shot over 50% from the floor and 46% from three-point range. A noticeable area of concern, however, was the 17 turnovers committed by the Sun Devils, their second-highest tally of the campaign. Turnovers have remained a constant issue in the 2024-25 season as the Sun Devils rank No. 15 in the Big 12 in both turnover margin and assist-to-turnover ratio.
For Cincinnati, the contest against Colorado was a tightly contested matchup in enemy territory. Despite shooting just 37% from the field compared to 41% by the host, Miller’s squad allowed just three made three-pointers all game, tied for the lowest total its opponents have made all season. The Buffs did shoot 3-24 (12.5%) from three against ASU as well.
The defeats, though against common opponents in the conference, lack similarities. The Bearcats held the Jayhawks to just 10% from three but still came up short, amounting to just 40 points themselves, whereas ASU played Kansas to a blockbuster first half, leading 42-36 at halftime, before capitulating on both ends—particularly offensively—turning the ball over a season-high 18 times.
When facing Baylor, the Sun Devils played an incredible second half, gathering themselves after a 20-point first half to force overtime after trailing by as much as 15 points in the second half. The Bears comfortably handled the Bearcats, going up by 15 points at halftime and coasting through the second half to mount a 20-point margin of victory.
“I don’t know if we could’ve done any better against Baylor,” Hurley said. “I don’t know if there’s a team in the country that could’ve done any better in late-game situations. How we were able to tie that game and go into overtime.”
Saturday’s clash will prove another challenging one for the Sun Devils. Despite being the more talented team on paper—certainly on the offensive end—Cincinnati is a program rooted in consistency and defensive prowess that won’t allow anything easy for 40 minutes. When going up against a consensus top-10 defense in the country on their floor, Hurley will ready his team to fight through slumps and low points. As conflicting styles face-off, it’ll become simple: Can ASU score enough to outlast the Bearcats’ stifling defense?
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