It’s the final regular-season home game for Arizona State (18-8 overall, 9-5 conference), who will host a struggling California team on Sunday afternoon in what looks like a classic “trap-game” for the Sun Devils.
ASU has won two straight—and seven of its last ten games—including Wednesday’s 80-62 victory over Stanford. With its performance over the last few weeks, ASU has built a strong case for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Cal, on the other hand, enters the contest on a 15-game losing streak and has a NET ranking of 278, which is the lowest of any power-conference team -- by a wide margin. Although a win against Cal won’t help ASU’s tourney résumé, a loss to the Bears would almost certainly destroy the Sun Devils’ chances of getting an at-large bid.
Usually, an opponent like this wouldn’t pose a legitimate threat, especially to a team who currently sits in second place in the conference standings.
Unfortunately, ASU has been down this road before -- and the results were not ideal.
As we all know by now, the Sun Devils have inexplicable losses at home to Princeton and Washington State. ASU was heavy favorites in both games, but it didn’t matter.
Those two setbacks, which are currently classified as quadrant-4 losses, now serve as the all-too-familiar footnote when analysts talk about ASU’s tourney resume. It seems like the Sun Devils have only recently dug itself out of the hole caused by those two losses – and it cannot afford to experience another failure of that magnitude.
Sunday also serves as senior day for ASU, who will honor forwards Zylan Cheatham and De’Quon Lake before the game.
Earlier in the week, Cheatham expressed how he feels heading into the final game of his collegiate career.
“It’s been an unbelievable journey,” he said. “A lot of ups and downs – great moments, bad moments but it’s all part of the process. I’m honored and I’m excited to play one last time – and to go out with a bang with my guys.”
-------------------------------------
California (5-21, 0-14) is in the midst of a historical season…but for all the wrong reasons.
The Golden Bears enter Sunday’s contest on a 15-game losing streak—the longest in the 112-year history of the program—and are dangerously close to finishing conference play without a win. In the history of the Pac-10/12, only one team (the 2007-08 Oregon State Beavers) has achieved that level of futility.
The struggles of this year’s Cal squad has even prompted some to claim the Bears are one of the worst major-conference teams this century – and it’s not an outlandish statement.
According to KenPom, Cal is ranked No. 283 nationally (out of 353 teams). Since 2002, when Ken Pomeroy first released his college basketball ratings—which tracks everything from offensive and defensive efficiency, the strength of schedule, tempo, and even, luck—only one major-conference team (the 2011-12 Utah Utes) has finished lower than the Bears’ current ranking.
The team’s poor play has fueled speculation that head coach Wyking Jones, who is only in his second year on the job, is already on the hot seat.
About the only silver lining, if there is one, is the fact that Cal’s young core is gaining valuable on-court experience this season. Eight of the Bears’ top nine players are underclassmen, which suggests brighter days may be on the horizon for the program.
Leading the way for Cal this season is sophomore Justice Sueing. The 6-foot-7 forward ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in steals (1.6 per game) and is among the league’s top-15 in scoring (15.1) and rebounding (6.0).
Starting alongside Sueing in recent weeks has been freshman Connor Vanover. The 7-foot-3 center started the season slowly, but he’s come on strong in Pac-12 play. Over the past six games, Vanover is averaging 11.3 points and 4.8 rebounds.
In the backcourt, Cal has received steady play from junior point guard Paris Austin, who leads the team in assists (4.4) and is second in scoring (11.8). Austin, who sat out last season after transferring from Boise State, has been a calming presence for a young Cal squad. He missed the first meeting of the season in Berkeley due to an ankle injury.
Sophomore Darius McNeill starts on the wing, and like most of the Bears’ players, he’s had an up-and-down season. The 6-foot-3 guard can score but is not an efficient shooter (only 39 percent this season). He had only 5 points on 2-of-9 shooting in Thursday’s 76-51 loss to Arizona.
Rounding out the Bears’ starting five is sophomore Juhwan Harris-Dyson, who provides good size (6-foot-5) and athleticism to Cal’s backcourt. He is not known for his offensive game, but he is one of the team’s best perimeter defenders.
Cal typically goes nine deep into its rotation with a bulk of the bench minutes going to freshmen Matt Bradley and Andre Kelly.
Bradley, a well-built 6-foot-4 guard, has been a pleasant surprise for the Bears. He is averaging 10.2 points per game and is one of the best three-point shooters in the conference, converting nearly 47 percent from beyond the arc this season. Kelly, a burly 6-foot-8 forward, has been in and out of the starting lineup for most the year. He is averaging 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds in 18 starts.
Rounding out Cal’s rotation is forwards Jacobi Gordon, a freshman, and Grant Anticevich, a sophomore.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (13.2 PPG, 5.2 APG) G – Paris Austin (11.7 PPG, 4.5 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (16.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG) G – Darius McNeill (11.6 PPG, 1.4 SPG)
G – Rob Edwards (11.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG) F – Juhwan Harris-Dyson (3.5 PPG, 2 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.8 PPG, 10.7 RPG) F – Justice Sueing (15 PPG, 6 RPG)
F – Romello White (9.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) C – Connor Vanover (6.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
Why ASU Can Win: The Sun Devils, who average a league-best 79.5 points per game, should feast on one of the nation’s worst defenses. Cal’s adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked dead last in the conference (and 336th nationally), according to KenPom.
Emotions should also be riding high for ASU, who is looking to send its seniors off in style. The home-court advantage should overwhelm a young Cal team that has yet to win a game away from Haas Pavilion this season.
And at the end of the day, let’s face it, the Sun Devils have more talent, size, athleticism, and experience, which is usually a recipe for success.
Why Cal Can Win: It’s hard to imagine the Bears can escape Tempe with a win, but stranger things have happened.
If Cal can slow down the tempo, and keep it close, they have a couple of things working in their favor. They are among the league’s best free-throw shooting teams (73.6 percent) and average only 11.2 turnovers per game, which is the fewest of any Pac-12 team.
Key Stat: On senior day, it’s only fitting to highlight the historic season of ASU forward Zylan Cheatham, who is putting up sensational numbers in his one (and only) season as a Sun Devil. Cheatham is currently averaging, 11.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.
If he continues to produce at this rate, he will finish the season in select company. In fact, no Pac-12 player has averaged 10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists since Stanford’s Adam Keefe accomplished the feat in 1991-92.
X-Factor: Can ASU summon the focus and mental fortitude to avoid another terrible loss? The Sun Devils are heavy favorites in Sunday’s game, but they have already lost two home games this season in which they were favored by double-digits (Princeton and Washington State). Another (bad) loss would be a devastating blow to ASU’s chances for an at-large bid.
Prediction: ASU 84, Cal 70
Game Info:
When: 4:00 pm MST
Where: Wells Fargo Arena – Tempe, Ariz.
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Network / 620 AM
