Will the real Arizona State team please stand up??
It seems like anytime the Sun Devils (19-9 overall, 10-6 in Pac-12 play) achieve a modicum of success, their ugly alter-ego takes over. It happened, again, on Thursday night when ASU suffered a 28-point loss—the largest margin of defeat this season—to a struggling Oregon squad.
The Sun Devils entered Thursday’s contest on a three-game winning streak, and had seemingly turned a corner and found some stability heading into the home stretch. The Ducks, on the other hand, had lost three straight and appeared to be in a free fall.
It seemed like a perfect opportunity for ASU to gain some breathing room from the dreaded “bubble” and solidify its status as an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Instead, the Sun Devils turned in one of its worst offensive performances of the season.
They registered a season-low 51 points and shot 32.1 percent from the field, which marked the second-worst shooting performance of the season.
As a result of Thursday’s loss, ASU now finds itself firmly back on the bubble in most Bracketology projections. Both Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm currently have the Sun Devils slotted as one of the “last four in.”
With ASU holding on for dear life, the last two games of the regular-season have suddenly become must-win contests for the Sun Devils, beginning with Sunday night’s matchup against the Beavers.
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Oregon State (17-10, 9-6) enters the contest on the heels of a heartbreaking 74-72 loss to Arizona, who clinched the game with a buzzer-beating putback from guard Devonaire Doutrive.
The loss dropped the Beavers to third place in the Pac-12 standings -- one spot behind the Sun Devils. Oregon State, however, is still in good position to finish in the top-four of the conference, which would give them a bye in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament.
Picked to finish 10th in the Pac-12 media’s preseason poll, the Beavers have exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations. Due in large part to having the league’s second-most efficient offense (according to KenPom), Oregon State has been one of the conference’s most consistent teams in what has been a turbulent year for the Pac-12.
Leading the way for the Beavers is the dynamic duo of Tres Tinkle and Stephen Thompson Jr. They are the second-highest scoring duo (36.4 points per game) in the conference – only behind Washington State’s Robert Franks and CJ Elleby.
Tinkle, a redshirt junior, is one of the leading candidates to win Pac-12 Player of the Year honors. The son of head coach Wayne Tinkle continues to improve each season as a collegiate. This year, he is the league’s second-leading scorer (20 PPG) and ranks in the top-10 in rebounds, assists, and steals.
Thompson, a senior, is one of the best all-around guards in the Pac-12. He is the league’s seventh-leading scorer (16.4 PPG) and ranks in the top-15 in assists, steals and three-pointers made. Thompson has also become a more vocal leader this season, which should delight his father, who is an assistant coach on Oregon State’s staff.
Stephen’s younger brother, Ethan, is usually the third option in Oregon State’s offense. He is also a well-rounded guard who can do a little bit of everything. In addition, to be the team’s third-leading scorer (13.4 PPG), he is also the Beavers’ best free-throw and three-point shooter.
While it’s no secret that Oregon State’s offense is run through Tinkle and the Thompson brothers, the anchor of the Beavers’ defense is junior Kylor Kelley. The 7-foot-3 center is the nation’s second-leading shot blocker with 3.5 per game. With Kelley patrolling the paint, Oregon State can be more aggressive with its on-ball defense and take chances in the passing lanes.
The Beavers’ fifth starter is typically is sophomore Zach Reichle. The 6-foot-5 wing is not known for his offense—he only shoots 31.4 percent from the field—but he is a hard-nosed defender with a high basketball IQ.
Oregon State’s rotation typically goes nine deep, with a bulk of the bench minutes going to senior Senior Gligorije and sophomore Alfred Hollins. Rakocevic, a sturdy 6-foot-11 center with an underrated low-post game, is the leading scorer (5.8 PPG) among the reserves. Hollins, a 6-foot-5 wing, adds size and athleticism to the Beavers’ backcourt. Rounding out Oregon State’s rotation is a pair of freshmen – guard Antoine Vernon and forward Warren Washington.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (13.0 PPG, 5.2 APG) G – Stephen Thompson Jr. (16.4 PPG, 3.5 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (16.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG) G – Ethan Thompson (13.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
G – Rob Edwards (11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG) G – Zach Reichle (3.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.6 PPG, 10.5 RPG) F – Tres Tinkle (20.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG)
F – Romello White (8.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG) C – Kylor Kelley (7.3 PPG, 3.5 BPG)
Why ASU Can Win: Throughout the season, the Sun Devils have typically responded well to bad losses, and in a must-win situation like this, ASU should come out swinging on Sunday.
ASU is the more athletic and physical team, which was apparent in the first meeting of the season in Tempe. In that contest, they established their low-post game early and often with White en route to out-scoring Oregon State 28-20 in the paint. The Sun Devils also finished with a plus-7 rebounding margin.
Also, look for ASU’s offense to bounce back against a Beavers’ defense that has struggled at times this season. In fact, Oregon State’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks ninth in the league, according to KenPom.
Why Oregon State Can Win: The Beavers are one of the better shooting teams in the conference. Among Pac-12 schools, they are tied for first in field goal percentage (46.9) and rank second in free-throw percentage (73.9).
Oregon State also does a very good job of taking care of the ball. In fact, their assist-to-turnover ratio (1.22) ranks second in the league -- only behind USC.
On the defensive end, the Beavers can rely on Kylor Kelley, one of the nation’s premier shot blockers. Kelley’s presence in the paint also allows the Beavers’ guards to apply heavy ball pressure and take chances on the perimeter. Although he was a relative non-factor in the first meeting, Kelley could have a big impact in Sunday’s matchup.
Key Stat: 40.5 percent -- that’s the magic number for ASU. When the Sun Devils shoot at least 40.5 percent from the field, they have a 19-3 record this season. When they fail to reach that mark, however, they are 0-6.
X-Factor: Can the Sun Devils re-establish its low-post game with Romello White? The sophomore forward was playing his best basketball of the season in late January and early February. However, he has struggled in recent weeks, averaging only 4.5 points and 3.3 rebounds over the last four games.
Prediction: ASU 74, Oregon State 70
Game Info:
When: 6:00 pm MST
Where: Gill Coliseum – Corvallis, Ore.
TV/Radio: ESPNU / 98.7 FM
