It wasn’t always pretty, but Arizona State (19-8 overall, 10-5 conference) took care of business last week against Stanford and Cal, and now embarks on a crucial road trip against the Oregon schools, which begins with a Thursday night matchup against a struggling Ducks squad.
The Sun Devils are still firmly on the right side of the bubble and have gained some breathing room in the latest Bracketology projections. To assume ASU is safely in the field no matter what would be inaccurate.
They still need a strong finish to its regular season—and a decent showing in the Pac-12 tourney certainly wouldn’t hurt—if they hope to secure an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
For what’s it worth, the Sun Devils have helped themselves over the last month, especially compared to some other bubble teams. They have won three straight, and eight of its last eleven games.
ASU’s recent success has coincided with the improved play of guard Rob Edwards. The redshirt junior has elevated his play in recent weeks, averaging 20 points and shooting 60 percent from the field, including 8-of-15 from three-point range, over the last three games.
“That dude’s been very efficient,” said ASU guard Remy Martin (of Edwards). “He’s been hitting shots, and the timing of his shots has been incredible, man. He changes the game with his scoring. It’s good to have a guy like that on your team that can score and space the floor. “
ASU coach Bobby Hurley said the offense is more effective when Edwards is shooting well because he spaces the floor for his teammates, and creates easier scoring opportunities for the other Sun Devil players.
As a whole, Hurley has been pleased with his team’s mindset on the offensive end, which has been more disciplined and patient over the last month.
“We’ve been more consistent about getting a better shot,” Hurley said. “We’re thinking about shot selection, ball movement, sharing the ball and not going too fast...That might take seven or eight seconds in a possession, or it might take 20 seconds. We just have to be mature enough and understand that [getting a good shot] is important."
Oregon (15-12, 6-8) stumbles into Thursday’s contest having lost three straight. The Ducks’ latest setback was a 90-83 loss at UCLA, a game in which they blew a 19-point lead and allowed the Bruins to score 62 in the second half.
The loss dropped Oregon to tenth place in the conference standings, and by all accounts, the Ducks will need to win the Pac-12 tournament if they have any hopes of dancing in March.
In a season that will go down as one of the worst in the conference’s storied history, Oregon may arguably be the league’s biggest disappointment in 2018-19. Remember, the Ducks were picked to finish first in the Pac-12’s preseason poll.
In Oregon’s defense, they’ve been beset by injuries this season, most notably the season-ending injury to star freshman Bol Bol. Starting forwards Louis King and Kenny Wooten have also missed some time this year, and the midseason transfer of Abu Kigab didn’t help matters.
Even so, Oregon still has plenty of talent on its roster, and in a down year like this one, it’s surprising the Ducks have not been more competitive.
Like most of the Pac-12, Oregon has been wildly inconsistent this season. Luckily for the Ducks, their defense has remained relatively solid through all the ups and downs.
Thanks to a stingy matchup zone, Oregon has been one of the best defensive teams in the conference. In fact, their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks third in the conference (and 50th nationally), according to KenPom.
Wooten, one of the Pac-12’s most athletic players, is the anchor of Oregon’s defense. The sophomore forward is a strong rebounder and is among the league-leaders in blocked shots (2 per game).
On offense, the Ducks have utilized a scoring-by-committee approach this season. Freshman forward Louis King leads the team in scoring, and he’s only gotten better as the season has progressed. He missed the first seven games of the season with a knee injury, but he’s been solid in Pac-12 play averaging 15.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.
As usual, Payton Pritchard has been a steadying presence for Oregon this season. The shifty point guard, who has been a three-year starter for the Ducks, is one of the best floor generals in the Pac-12. He is averaging 11.8 points per game and is among the league leaders in assists (4.8 per game) and steals (1.6).
Returning players Paul White, a senior forward, and Victor Bailey, a sophomore guard, have assumed bigger roles this year, especially since Bol went down with his injury. They are both talented scorers and have the ability to stretch defenses with their outside shooting.
The Ducks don’t have a deep bench—they only have nine scholarship players on its active roster—but they have quality depth. Guards Will Richardson and Ehab Amin provide solid ball handling and defense off the bench, while forwards Francis Okoro and Miles Norris give the Ducks more size and versatility in the frontcourt.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (13.2 PPG, 5.2 APG) G – Payton Pritchard (11.8 PPG, 4.3 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (16.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG) G – Victor Bailey Jr. (8.6 PPG, 38% 3PT)
G – Rob Edwards (11.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG) F – Paul White (10.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.8 PPG, 10.7 RPG) F – Louis King (13.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
F – Romello White (9.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) F – Kenny Wooten (6.8 PPG, 1.9 BPG)
Why ASU Can Win: The Sun Devils seem to be gaining momentum down the stretch. They continue to rebound and defend at a high level, and as mentioned above, they have displayed better decision-making and shot selection in recent weeks.
ASU’s backcourt of Martin, Edwards and Luguentz Dort has been terrific over the last few games. Dort, in particular, has looked like a different player during this stretch.
After hitting the “freshman wall” midway through the season, he has bounced back in a big way. Dort is averaging 18 points and nearly 5 rebounds per game in the month of February, but it’s his efficiency that has caught everyone’s attention. He is shooting 48 percent from the field, and over 36 percent from three-point range.
Why Oregon Can Win: The Ducks are one of the better defensive teams in the conference. On the season, Oregon has held opponents to 65.5 points per game on 41.7 percent shooting from the field. Their zone defense may not be as scary as Washington’s, but it’s still pretty darn good.
The Ducks also do a tremendous job of creating turnovers and defending the three-point line. In fact, they’ve held opponents to a league-low 31 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
On offense, they have two players in King and Pritchard who are capable of taking over a game with their scoring ability.
Key Stat: Over the past nine games, ASU has a 6-0 record when Rob Edwards scores in double figures. When he doesn’t reach that mark, however, the Sun Devils are 0-3.
X-Factor: Thursday’s game is a matchup of contrasting styles, and the outcome could be decided by which team dictates the tempo. According to KenPom, ASU averages 71.1 possessions per 40 minutes, which is the second-fastest tempo in the conference. Oregon, on the other hand, plays slower than any other team in the Pac-12. They average only 64.4 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 328th nationally (out of 353 teams).
Prediction: ASU 74, Oregon 70
Game Info:
When: 9:00 pm MST
Where: Matthew Knight Arena – Eugene, Ore.
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Network / 98.7 FM
