Arizona State (10-4 overall, 1-1 conference) travels to the Bay Area this week for its first Pac-12 road trip of the season. The first leg of the trip is a Wednesday-night matchup against California.
Coming off Saturday’s impressive 83-61 win over Colorado, the Sun Devils are in a good place.
The team had arguably its best performance of the season, dominating both ends of the floor throughout the game. The most noteworthy takeaway from Saturday’s victory, however, was the pregame adjustments made by ASU coach Bobby Hurley.
He scrapped his starting lineup only minutes before tip-off and decided two bring his top two scorers, Luguentz Dort, and Remy Martin, off the bench. Although Hurley did not specifically point toward Dort and Martin as the reasons for ASU’s recent offensive struggles, he made it clear that a change was needed.
Hurley instead opted for a “jumbo-sized” starting five that included: 6-10 De’Quon Lake, 6-8 Romello White, 6-8 Zylan Cheatham, 6-7 Kimani Lawrence, and 6-4 Rob Edwards.
If that wasn’t enough, ASU started—and played most of the game—in a 2-3 zone, which is a stark departure for Hurley’s man-to-man defensive philosophy.
The adjustments caught Tad Boyle and his squad completely off guard. The Sun Devils’ length and energy stifled the Buffs’ offense and forced them into contested shots. Colorado shot only 32.8 percent from the field, which was the best defensive effort from ASU in conference play in nearly seven years.
On the offensive end of the floor, ASU was equally effective. The team was coming off two straight home losses in which they played particularly bad on offense, but looked like a completely different group in Saturday’s contest.
The Sun Devils moved the ball effectively, made the extra pass and displayed better shot-selection. The result: ASU shot a season-high 57.1 percent from the field.
The most important stat, however, might have been the team’s 24 assists, which was also a season-high. ASU assisted on 75 percent of their made field goals -- a rate that is rarely seen in college basketball.
Leading the way was point guard Remy Martin, who finished with 8 assists and only two turnovers. Martin took Hurley’s pre-game message (to share the ball with his teammates) to heart, and turned in a solid floor game, despite not scoring a single point.
During Saturday’s postgame press conference, Hurley said the lineup change wouldn’t necessarily be a permanent move, but instead, suggested it’s a fluid situation.
“That could change at a moment’s notice,” Hurley explained. “We settled into the eight-man rotation and really any of those guys could start on any given day… I’m not putting a lot of emphasis on who starts. Those guys are all going to get minutes and it will get distributed [accordingly].”
California (5-9, 0-2) stumbles into Wednesday’s matchup after dropping its first two Pac-12 contests – something the program has not done since 2011.
It’s been a rough start for coach Wyking Jones and his squad, which is one of the youngest teams in the country. In fact, Cal has only one upperclassman (Paris Austin) in its nine-man rotation and has regularly played four freshmen.
The Bear’s inexperience has undoubtedly played a role in the team’s defense, which is among the worst in college basketball. Cal’s defensive efficiency ranks 325th nationally (out of 353), and dead last in the Pac-12, according to statistician Ken Pomeroy.
No team in the conference has allowed more points (79.6 per game)—or a higher shooting percentage from the field (49.6 percent)—than Cal this season.
There’s no other way to say it: the Bears are not very good on the defensive end.
One bright spot for the team, however, has been the play of point guard Paris Austin. The redshirt junior, who sat out last season after transferring from Boise State, has been Cal’s most valuable player. He leads the team in scoring (14.1 per game) and assists (5.2) and is the emotional leader of the group.
Austin’s status for the game, however, is still up in the air. Jones told reporters on Tuesday that his starting point guard would be a “game-time decision” due to an ankle injury that also kept Austin out of Cal’s last game—a 10-point loss at UCLA.
If Austin is unable to play on Wednesday night, it would obviously be a big blow to the Bears, who lack depth at the point guard position.
On a macro scale, it looks like this could be a long season for Cal. There is, however, a reason to be cautiously optimistic if you’re a Bears fan. There is plenty of young talent on the roster, and those players have logged valuable minutes this year, which should bode well for the future of the program.
Cal has gotten big contributions this season from sophomores Justice Sueing (14 PPG) and Darius McNeill (12.5 PPG), who have performed well in expanded roles. Freshmen Matt Bradley (10.5 PPG) and Andre Kelly (9.6 PPG) have had solid rookie campaigns, and look like nice building blocks for the future.
Another intriguing player to watch is freshman center Connor Vanover. The 7-3 big man isn’t much of a force on the glass, but he’s a unique offensive talent with range out to the 3-point line.
As stated above, Cal’s rotation typically goes nine deep, although they don’t get a ton of production from the second unit, which includes: Vanover, Grant Anticevich, Juhwan Harris-Dyson, and Jacobi Gordon.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (12 PPG, 4 APG) / G – Paris Austin (14.1 PPG, 5.2 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (17.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) / G – Darius McNeill (12.5 PPG, 1.6 SPG)
F – Kimani Lawrence (11.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG) / G – Matt Bradley (10.5 PPG, 3 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG) / F – Justice Sueing (14 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
F – Romello White (9.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) / F – Andre Kelly (9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
Why ASU Can Win: Aside from being more talented, athletic and bigger, the Sun Devils should also be able to capitalize on the youth and inexperience of Cal, who only has only one upperclassman (Austin) in its nine-man rotation.
The Sun Devils’ biggest advantage, however, may come in the paint where they own a plus-14 rebounding margin over the Bears. Don’t be surprised to ASU control the glass and overwhelm a Cal team that allows opponents to shoot nearly 56 percent on two-point field goals.
Why Cal Can Win: Although the Bears have been painfully bad on defense this season, their offense has actually been solid. They are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the conference (36.7 percent), although they don’t take a ton of shots (19 per game).
Cal also takes care of the ball exceptionally well. They commit only 11.5 turnovers per game, which is the fewest of any Pac-12 team.
And if it comes down to a free-throw contest, the Bears should have a distinct advantage. They shoot a league-best 76.9 percent from the charity stripe. ASU, on the other hand, only shoots 67.6 percent.
Key Stat: ASU averages a league-best 43.1 rebounds per game. Cal, on the other hand, averages 28.9 per contest, which is the fewest of any Pac-12 team (by a wide margin).
X-Factor: When Kimani Lawrence is rolling on the offensive end, it’s usually good news for the Sun Devils. The team has an 8-0 record this season when the sophomore forward scores in double figures. Conversely, when he fails to reach that mark, ASU is only 2-4 in those games.
Prediction: ASU 82, Cal 72
Game Info:
When: 7:00 pm MST
Where: Haas Pavilion – Berkeley, Calif.
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Network / 620 AM
