Life on the bubble is never fun.
However, with a win in Saturday’s regular-season finale, Arizona State (20-9 overall, 11-6 in Pac-12 play) can distance itself from the dreaded bubble, and take a step closer to making a return trip to the NCAA Tournament – something that has eluded the program since 1981.
There’s only one problem – ASU must face Arizona in the hostile environment of McKale Center, where the Sun Devils have not won in nine years.
“It’s not a secret -- we know that we haven’t won down there,” said ASU forward Zylan Cheatham. “That’s something that we want to do.”
A victory on Saturday would not only exorcize the demons at McKale Center, but it would also complete a season sweep of the Wildcats, which the Sun Devils haven’t accomplished since 2009. Perhaps most importantly, a win will keep ASU’s tourney hopes alive, and increase their chances of securing an at-large bid.
At this juncture of the season, head coach Bobby Hurley said his team needs to approach each game as a single-elimination contest.
“I told the guys, there’s no more time to lose and learn from it,” Hurley said. “It’s single-elimination time. You’ve got to string together multiple wins.”
Luckily for ASU, they seem to be trending in the right direction as the regular season draws to an end. The Sun Devils have won four of its last five games, including last Sunday’s 74-71 thriller at Oregon State.
Hurley hopes the Sun Devils can carry that momentum into Saturday’s contest against the Wildcats.
“We’ve been playing pretty good basketball,” Hurley said. “This time of year, that’s all you really want. It’s our last opportunity, our last regular season opportunity. You want to be playing great basketball going into postseason tournaments.”
===============================
It’s been a tumultuous season for Arizona (17-13, 8-9) -- both on and off the court.
The FBI probe into college basketball corruption has resulted in former Arizona assistant coach Emanuel “Book” Richardson facing prison time (for bribery), and head coach Sean Miller receiving notification that he would be subpoenaed to testify in next month’s federal trial.
If that’s not bad enough, the NCAA also began a formal inquiry into the actions of Arizona’s basketball program in early February, according to Yahoo Sports.
On the court, the Wildcats have experienced their fair share of problems as well.
Injuries, chemistry problems, and a lack of star power have contributed to the program’s worst season since the 2009-10 campaign – which was also Miller’s first season as Arizona’s head coach.
The Wildcats stumble into Saturday’s contest having lost eight of its last 11 games, and barring a miraculous run in the Pac-12 tourney, they will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time in seven years.
However, It appears the basketball gods have given Arizona a potentially nice consolation prize: the opportunity to play “spoiler” and burst ASU’s tournament bubble.
Like most Miller-led teams, Arizona will rely on a solid defense to set the tone. On the season, they have allowed 68.5 points per game, which is the third-fewest in the conference -- only behind Washington and Oregon.
The team’s offense, however, leaves much to be desired. The Wildcats average 71.3 points per game, which ranks ninth in the conference, and shoot a league-worst 42.8 percent from the field.
Unlike recent years, Arizona does not have a bonafide star to spearhead its offense and has instead employed a scoring-by-committee approach this season.
Sophomore Brandon Randolph is the Wildcats’ leading scorer (12.8 points per game). The 6-foot-6 wing is a high-volume shooter and capable of putting up big numbers, but he has struggled in recent weeks. Over the last eight games, Randolph is averaging only 6.8 points on 31.5 percent shooting from the field.
Brandon Williams was enjoying a productive freshman season (11.6 PPG) before he went down with a knee injury in late January, which forced him to miss six games including the first meeting of the season in Tempe. His minutes have been restricted since returning from injury, but Miller told reporters that Williams should be a “full go” for Saturday’s contest.
Speaking of health, redshirt junior Chase Jeter is questionable for the game. He is suffering from a bone bruise (knee), which limited him to only six minutes in Saturday’s loss at Oregon. If Jeter is unable to play, it would be a big blow for the Wildcats. The 6-foot-10 center is the team’s best low-post scorer and defender.
With Jeter’s status up in the air, look for seniors Justin Coleman and Ryan Luther to play a bigger role in their final home game as a collegiate.
Coleman, a grad transfer from Samford, is the elder statesman of Arizona’s backcourt. In his one and only season in Tucson, the diminutive point guard has been a steadying presence for the Wildcats averaging 9 points per game, while also leading the team in assists and steals.
Luther, a grad transfer from Pitt, is the team’s best three-pointer shooter (38.5 percent) and a solid rebounder. The well-built 6-foot-9 forward had a monster game in Tempe, scoring a season-high 19 points while making 5-of-8 from three-point range.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (13 PPG, 5.1 APG) / G – Justin Coleman (9 PPG, 3.5 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (16.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG) / G – Brandon Williams (7.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
G – Rob Edwards (11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG) / G – Brandon Randolph (12.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.6 PPG, 10.5 RPG) / F – Ryan Luther (8 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
F – Romello White (8.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG) / F – Ira Lee (6.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
Why ASU Can Win: The Sun Devils were the more physical team in the first meeting of the season – they outscored the Wildcats 36-20 in the paint and had a plus-6 rebounding margin. ASU should be able to overwhelm a smaller and less athletic Arizona squad in Saturday’s contest.
It’s also hard to imagine Arizona will make 14 three-pointers—like they did in the first meeting. The more likely scenario: the Sun Devils’ length and athleticism will pose problems for a Wildcat team that has struggled on the offensive end. Remember, Arizona shoots a league-worst 42.8 percent from the field.
Why Arizona Can Win: Although this year’s squad doesn’t have the star power of other Arizona teams, make no mistake, there is still plenty of talent on this roster.
The Wildcats also have a strong defense. In fact, Arizona’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks fourth in the conference (and 61st nationally), according to KenPom.
And let’s face it, the Wildcats rarely lose in Tucson…especially to the Sun Devils.
Key Stat: Winning on the road in conference play is never easy, but Tucson has been particularly unkind to ASU, who has a 3-16 record at McKale Center this century. In the losses, the Sun Devils were outscored by an average margin of 18.3 points.
X-Factor: Can ASU’s starting backcourt maintain its (relatively) hot shooting? The trio of Dort, Edwards, and Martin has shot much better in recent weeks—connecting on nearly 47 percent from the field, and 40 percent from three-point range, over the past five games. When they collectively shoot well, it’s typically good news for the Sun Devils.
Prediction: Arizona 73, ASU 71
Game Info:
When: 2:00 pm MST
Where: McKale Center – Tucson, Ariz.
TV/Radio: CBS / 620 AM
