Rivalry week is here -- and the stakes are high in Thursday night’s matchup between Arizona State (14-6 overall, 5-3 conference) and its rival to the south. Both teams are fighting for their NCAA tournament lives and enter the game firmly on the bubble, according to most Bracketology projections.
Bubble talk aside, the ASU-Arizona game is always accompanied with a heightened level of excitement and anticipation. Thursday’s contest—the first meeting of the season between the two schools—is no exception.
“The rivalry always [adds] a little extra juice and the crowd is going to be what it is,” said ASU head coach Bobby Hurley. “There’s a lot of great things that go along with playing a program that’s had the track record, the tradition, and the success that Arizona’s had.”
For Hurley, it also provides an opportunity to finally beat the Wildcats, something he has not accomplished in six previous meetings. Considering the current state of the two programs, Hurley has a great chance to end of the streak on Thursday.
The big picture, however, is equally important for ASU. They need to regain some positive momentum after splitting a pair of games on the southern California road trip.
The Sun Devils are coming off a heartbreaking 69-67 loss at USC. Despite a dismal shooting performance—they made only 30.6 percent of their field goal attempts—ASU was able to keep the game close behind great free-throw shooting (yes, you read that correctly) and another dominant effort on the glass.
A series of mishaps in the final minute, however, sealed the Sun Devils’ fate. Luguentz Dort turned the ball over with 53 seconds remaining. Shortly after that, Zylan Cheatham missed the front-end of a one-and-one, and then, Remy Martin hoisted up a questionable three-pointer in the waning seconds, which missed badly.
The unfortunate series of events forced ASU into a Hail Mary situation -- down by two with 0.8 seconds left on the clock. A desperation 30-foot heave from Luguentz Dort was wide left, and the Sun Devils left La La Land with a split, once again failing to secure a conference road trip sweep.
It’s not all bad news for the Sun Devils, however. Senior forward Zylan Cheatham is encouraged by the improvement he has seen in recent weeks and thinks his squad can learn from Saturday’s tough loss.
“I think we’re getting a lot better,” he said. “Our practices are a lot more intense. I think we’re playing smarter basketball now. We’re starting to realize what loses games. As bad as it looked losing that USC game, we learned so much from it.”
As disappointing as the USC loss was, ASU probably enters Thursday’s contest feeling a lot better about itself than Arizona does.
It was a rough week for Arizona (14-7, 5-3), who got swept in L.A. and lost both games by 20-plus points. Playing without starting center Chase Jeter—the team’s best low-post scorer and defender—the Wildcats were simply overpowered in the paint.
As of Wednesday afternoon, it was still unclear if Jeter, who injured his back against Oregon State on Jan. 19, would play in Thursday’s pivotal matchup. His presence, or lack thereof, could play a key role in the game’s outcome.
If Jeter is cleared to play, he will obviously have a big role in Arizona’s game plan. If he’s not available, however, the Wildcats will need to find a way to replace his production, which is easier said than done.
This is not the typical Arizona squad we’ve seen in recent years.
Generally speaking, there are no five-star prospects on the roster. No future lottery picks. And although it’s a talented group, nobody on the team is forcing opposing coaches to devise a special game plan, like DeAndre Ayton did last season, for example.
Even head coach Sean Miller has serious reservations about this year’s team. In a press conference on Tuesday, a reporter asked Miller if the Wildcats were an NCAA Tournament team at this juncture of the season.
“No,” he said. “I think what we have to do is, we have to focus on being the very best team that we can be and then head into our conference tournament, very similar to a lot of the low-major, mid-major leagues -- and that is to play our best basketball in Vegas and to win three games in three days or four games in four days.”
Despite Miller’s assessment of his squad, let’s not forget that Arizona is still one of the best teams in the Pac-12, especially when they are healthy and firing on all cylinders.
In an up-and-down season for the Wildcats, one thing has remained constant: a commitment to defense.
This year’s group has returned to Miller’s defensive roots. Similar to the teams early in his tenure at Arizona and even Xavier, the 2018-19 Wildcats have relied on a stingy defense to set the tone.
Arizona’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks second in the conference (only behind Oregon), and 43rd in the nation, according to statistician Ken Pomeroy. The team’s defense, unfortunately, has been forced to compensate for a relatively mediocre offense.
On the season, Arizona’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks eighth in the conference, and 138th nationally. Not a terrible ranking, but certainly worse than previous seasons.
In the last four games, however, the Wildcat offense has looked downright abysmal. During that span, which resulted in only one win, Arizona is averaging 65.5 points per game while shooting only 34.2 percent from the field.
The offensive struggles are somewhat perplexing considering the amount of talent and firepower in the backcourt. The trio of Brandon Randolph, Brandon Williams, and Justin Coleman have provided plenty of production this season, and are expected to start in Thursday’s game.
Randolph is team’s leading scorer (14.9 points per game) and has been a consistent performer throughout the season. The sophomore wing has reached double figures in every game except two.
Williams, a freshman, has turned up his play in recent weeks. The shifty combo guard has averaged 13.8 points per game and made 40 percent of his three-pointers in Pac-12 play.
Coleman, a grad transfer from Samford, has been a nice addition for the Wildcats. He is the team’s best facilitator (3.2 assists) and of its top three-point shooters (39 percent) as well. Perhaps more importantly, he provides experience and leadership to Arizona’s young backcourt.
In the frontcourt, the Wildcats usually start a pair of transfers in Jeter (if healthy and available) and Ryan Luther.
Jeter, a redshirt junior, leads the team in field goal percentage (62.1 percent) and rebounds (7.2 per game), while Luther, a grad transfer from Pitt, is a capable rebounder and can stretch the floor with his outside shooting.
Arizona typically goes nine deep, with a bulk of the bench minutes going to guard Dylan Smith and forward Ira Lee. Guards Devonaire Doutrive and Alex Barcello, a former standout at Corona del Sol, round out the Wildcats’ rotation.
Probable Starters:
G – Remy Martin (12.3 PPG, 4.8 APG) G – Justin Coleman (8.7 PPG, 3.3 APG)
G – Luguentz Dort (16 PPG, 4.5 RPG) G – Brandon Williams (12 PPG, 3.6 APG)
G – Rob Edwards (10 PPG, 41.4% 3PT) G – Brandon Randolph (14.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
F – Zylan Cheatham (11.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG) F – Ryan Luther (6.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
F – Romello White (9 PPG, 6 RPG) C – Chase Jeter (12.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
Why ASU Can Win: It’s hard to imagine the Sun Devils shooting 30 percent from the field in two straight games, so if ASU continues to play hard on defense and control the glass, they should come away with the victory.
Arizona is the worst shooting team in the conference (43.3 percent from the field), and the Wildcat offense has been in a funk the last two weeks, which plays into the hands of ASU’s defense.
Most importantly, if Jeter is still affected by the back injury or misses the game altogether, ASU should have a decisive advantage in the paint against Arizona, who already has a thin frontcourt.
Why Arizona Can Win: The Wildcats may possess less talent than recent years, but they are still one of the best teams in the Pac-12, especially when Jeter is healthy.
In rivalry matchups, little things like free throws and turnovers often play a big role in the outcome of the game. If this holds true, it’s good news for Arizona, who is the second-best free throw shooting team in the conference (74.4 percent). They also average only 11.3 turnovers per game – Cal is the only Pac-12 team that averages less.
And let’s face it, even if ASU has a slight advantage in talent this season, all bets are off in rivalry games. It’s not ridiculous to suggest Arizona could leave Tempe with a much-needed win.
Key Stat: Bobby Hurley has a 0-6 record against Arizona. Until he gets that first W, the proverbial monkey will continue to linger on the back of ASU’s head coach.
X-Factor: The health/availability of Jeter. On Tuesday, Sean Miller told reporters that Jeter’s status for the game was unknown. The Wildcats are already pretty thin in the frontcourt, and if Jeter is not available, ASU would have a huge advantage in the paint.
Prediction: ASU 72, Arizona 66
Game Info:
When: 7:00 pm MST
Where: Wells Fargo Arena – Tempe, Ariz.
TV/Radio: ESPN 2 / 620 AM
