Before ASU hosted Arizona last season, Bobby Hurley had his team read out the score of every game he had coached against the Wildcats. They were all losses. He ran a sprint across the floor for every point the Sun Devils lost by.
Overcoming the Wildcats' dominance over ASU was that important and meaningful to Hurley. Beating them twice last season was the most poignant example his program could compete with the state’s most storied program.
But those wins came against Arizona in a down season, one where it failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. That won’t happen this year. The Wildcats reloaded, bringing in an impressive freshman class with guards Nico Mannion and Josh Green and forward Zeke Nnaji.
An ASU win against this Sean Miller-led squad would be far more impressive, and possibly springboard the Sun Devils into Pac-12 play.
ASU has struggled to start the year. Its defense has been solid, but inconsistent. Its 3-point shooting has been abysmal. And, as it pertains to Saturday, the Devils main threat, forward Romello White is a game-time decision after spraining his ankle against Texas Southern.
“It will affect a lot, but you have to keep going,” freshman guard Jaelen House said of the chances of playing without White.
If White, who’s averaging 11 points and 10 rebounds a game, can’t go, expect more time for Jalen Graham and Mickey Mitchell, who has been very active since returning a few weeks ago. Graham missed time with a concussion but was cleared on Thursday; in White’s absence against Colorado, he was aggressive and efficient in his first collegiate game.
But back to that Texas Southern game, it was the Sun Devils’ best offensive performance of the year. They hit 12 shots from beyond the arc, scored 98 points and had a trio of 20-point scorers. To beat Arizona, they will need to match the Wildcats’ offense.
Arizona is the sixth-best scoring team in the nation -- it nets almost 84 points a game. For reference, ASU averages nearly 10 points less.
Sure, the Sun Devils can play great defense and create opportunities in transition. The question is, have they fixed their offensive struggles enough to keep up with U of A?
“Our offensive performance against Texas Southern was needed. I think we needed to play that way. It was kind of a breakthrough for a number of guys,” Hurley said. “Hopefully we can carry over some of that momentum into Saturday and the Pac-12 overall.”
Saturday marks the start of Pac-12 play for both schools from the Grand Canyon State. Arizona enters No. 25 in the country with a 10-3 record -- it’s losses coming to No. 18 Baylor, No. 6 Gonzaga and St. John’s. ASU is 9-4 but its losses are far less impressive -- Colorado, No. 7 Virginia, St. Mary’s (By 40) and Creighton.
Here’s a breakdown of what ASU and Arizona can do Saturday to start conference 1-0.
Why ASU Can Win: Well, a lot would have to go right. First, White would likely need to play. ASU’s 3-point resurgence it saw against Texas Southern would need to continue -- it’s hard to beat the Wildcats if you’re not hitting triples. Also, the Sun Devils would need to play defense at the level it did against Virginia. That day, ASU played tight with one of the best teams in the country -- they pressured Virginia’s guards, pushed its forwards out of the paint and created turnovers with a stingy full-court press. That effort will largely be led by freshman Jaelen House and Remy Martin, who scored a combined 58 in ASU’s two meetings with U of A last season. Pulled off to the best of ASU’s ability, it has a chance of stymying the Wildcats’ potent scoring attack.
Why Arizona Can Win: For starters, the Wildcats have more talent. Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji, Chase Jeter. Arizona boasts one of the most skilled rosters in the conference and, so far, it’s translated to success. Behind the freshman duo of Mannion (14.8 ppg/6.2 apg) and Nnaji (16.5 ppg/7.8 rpg) who The Wildcats score an average of 83.7 points a game (6th in the nation), they shoot nearly 50 percent from the field and play disciplined defense. Arizona also turns the ball over less than 12 times a game -- if that continues, it would take away a big chunk of ASU’s possible scoring opportunities. The Wildcats score so well, and against an ASU team that has struggled offensively all season, it seems the Sun Devils could be playing catch-up most of the game.
Key Figure: 48% -- What ASU shot from beyond the arc against Texas Southern, it’s best clip from deep this season. On the season, ASU is still shooting just over 30 percent, a mark that can’t continue if the Devils want to have a chance.
X-Factor: Will Romello White play? That’s the big question. White has been that good for ASU this season, leading the Pac-12 in rebounding while improving his offensive game down low. The Sun Devils are at their best when the ball has been in White’s hands. If ASU’s forward can’t go Saturday night, the Sun Devils chances become quite bleak.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona 81, ASU 72
Game Info:
When: 7:30 P.M. MST
Where: McKale Center
TV/Radio: Pac-12 Networks (Ted Robinson/Bill Walton) / KMVP 98.7 (Tim Healey/Kyle Dodd)
