Pac-12 Hoops Midseason Report Card
By Erik Pierson
After two consecutive seasons of mediocrity, the Pac-12 Conference has enjoyed a bounce-back season this year.
Heading into Pac-12 play, the conference has two teams ranked (Oregon and Arizona), while two others (Colorado and Washington) sit just outside of the top-25.
After sending only three teams to the NCAA tourney the last two years, it appears the Pac-12 could be a five- or six-bid league this season, with a group of teams like Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, USC, and Utah firmly in the conversation for an at-large bid.
With as much parity as we’ve seen in the last decade, the race for the Pac-12 crown should be an exciting one to track.
Let’s take a look at each team and see where they stand at the midway point of the season.
(Teams are listed in order alphabetical order):
ARIZONA | Midseason Grade: B+
Record: 10-3
Strength of Schedule: 144 (out of 353 D-1 teams)
NET Ranking: 20
KenPom offensive efficiency: 12th nationally; 2nd in conference
KenPom defensive efficiency: 45th nationally; 4th in conference
Good News: Led by the freshman trio of Zeke Nnaji, Nico Mannion, and Josh Green, the Wildcats have a high-powered offense this season. The team averages 83.7 points per game, which ranks second in the nation (only behind Gonzaga) while shooting over 49 percent from the field. Arizona, however, has not abandoned its trademark defense, which has been perennially solid during the Sean Miller era. The Wildcats’ balance should make them a serious contender for the Pac-12 title.
Reason for Concern: Arizona is heavily reliant on its three freshmen, which has proven to be a double-edged sword. At times, the trio’s inexperience has reared its ugly head, especially in close games. In contests decided by five points or less, the Wildcats have a 1-3 record. If Arizona hopes to realize its full potential this season, they must finish out games more effectively.
ARIZONA STATE | Midseason Grade: C+
Record: 9-4
SOS: 105
NET: 60
KenPom offense: 134th nationally; 9th in conference
KenPom defense: 59th nationally; 5th in conference
Good News: Arizona State has one of the best inside/out combos in the conference with junior forward Romello White (11.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and guard Remy Martin (17.9 ppg, 4.1 apg). In addition to being among the team leaders in scoring, the duo has also set the tone for the Sun Devil defense, which is better than anyone expected. The team’s defensive efficiency ranks 59th nationally according to KenPom, and ASU forces opponents to commit a league-high 17.2 turnovers per game.
Reason for Concern: ASU’s offense, which was expected to be a strength heading into the season, has been surprisingly shaky. The team can’t shoot the ball straight, and it’s reflected in their shooting percentages -- 43.4 FG%, 30.4 3PT%, 69 FT% -- which are among the worst in the conference. If the Sun Devils hope to make a third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament, they will need to improve their shooting numbers across the board.
CALIFORNIA | Midseason Grade: D-
Record: 6-7
SOS: 85
NET: 185
KenPom offense: 198th nationally; 12th in conference
KenPom defense: 191st nationally; 11th in conference
Good News: After two woeful seasons under former coach Wyking Jones, expectations were tempered for the Cal program heading into the 2019-20 campaign. However, the Bears started off the season with four straight wins, including victories over UNLV and a sneaky-talented Pepperdine squad. Cal is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, hitting nearly 38 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc. Led by sophomore guard Matt Bradley (17.5 ppg), the Bears could steal a few games in Pac-12 play.
Reason for Concern: There is simply not enough talent for new coach Mark Fox to work with. After a hot start, Cal has come back to reality, dropping five of its last seven games. It could be a long season for Fox, as he tries to implement his system in Berkeley. The Bears offensive and defensive efficiency rank among the worst in the Pac-12, according to KenPom, and growing pains should be expected.
COLORADO | Midseason Grade: B+
Record: 11-2
SOS: 139
NET: 28
KenPom offense: 78th nationally; 7th in conference
KenPom defense: 18th nationally; 1st in conference
Good News: Behind a suffocating defense, which ranks best in the conference according to KenPom, Colorado has gotten off to a solid start. The Buffaloes secured non-conference wins over ASU, Clemson and Dayton—which should bolster its NCAA tournament resume. Even their losses – against likely-tournament teams Kansas and Northern Iowa – don't look all that bad. Led by the junior trio of McKinley Wright (12.8 ppg), Tyler Bey (12.5 ppg) and D’Shawn Schwartz (11.4 ppg), Colorado has the talent and experience to make some noise this season.
Reason for Concern: Colorado might be one of the best rebounding and defensive teams in the conference, but they have struggled in other areas. The Buffs shoot only 42 percent from the field, which is among the worst in the Pac-12. The team has also failed to take care of the ball, averaging over 15 turnovers per game. Colorado may need to clean up these areas if they hope to go dancing in March – something that has eluded the program in the last three seasons.
OREGON | Midseason Grade: A-
Record: 11-2
SOS: 43
NET: 11
KenPom offense: 4th nationally; 1st in conference
KenPom defense: 63rd nationally; 6th in conference
Good News: After a strong non-conference performance—which included wins over Memphis, Houston, Seton Hall, and Michigan—the Ducks are the frontrunner to win this season’s Pac-12 crown. Despite incorporating a slew of newcomers into the mix, coach Dana Altman has Oregon rolling as they head into league play. The Duck’s offensive efficiency, which ranks best in the conference according to KenPom, has been superb. Led by All-American candidate Payton Pritchard (18.5 ppg, 6.2 apg), Oregon’s offense has looked like a well-oiled machine.
Reason for Concern: Let’s be honest, there’s not much to worry about. Oregon’s offense has looked great, and the defense has been solid as well. If there’s one area to monitor, however, it might be free throw shooting. As a team, the Ducks shoot only 67 percent from the charity stripe, which is second-worst in the league. Oregon’s free throw struggles played a direct role in the team’s only two losses—to Gonzaga and North Carolina.
OREGON STATE | Midseason Grade: C+
Record: 10-2
SOS: 345
NET: 78
KenPom offense: 41st nationally; 3rd in conference
KenPom defense: 109th nationally; 8th in conference
Good News: Oregon State’s 10-2 start is the best since the 2015-16 season, which also marks the last time the program made the NCAA Tournament. Led by two-time All-Conference selection Tres Tinkle (20.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), the Beavers’ offense has been better than expected, averaging nearly 80 points per game, while shooting 49 percent from the field. On the other end of the floor, the team has leaned heavily on center Kylor Kelley, who ranks second in the nation with 4.3 blocks per game.
Reason for Concern: Oregon State’s strength of schedule ranks 345th nationally (out of 353 Division-1 teams), so it’s fair to question the legitimacy of their 10-2 record. We’ll find out soon enough if the Beavers have prepared themselves (or not) for the rigors of conference play. One thing is certain: there is a considerable drop-off when Oregon State turns to its bench. Perhaps no team in the Pac-12 is more reliant on its starters than the Beavers, who get over 80 percent of its scoring from their starting five.
STANFORD | Midseason Grade: B
Record: 11-2
SOS: 263
NET: 21
KenPom offense: 142nd nationally; 10th in conference
KenPom defense: 22nd nationally; 2nd in conference
Good News: It’s safe to say that Stanford, who was picked by media member to finish 10th in the Pac-12 preseason poll, has exceeded expectations thus far with its 11-2 start. Behind a surprisingly stout defense, which has allowed only 58.8 points per game, the Cardinal have grinded out victories this season. On the offensive end, Stanford has received significant contributions from junior forward Oscar da Silva (17.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and freshman guard Tyrell Terry (15.2 ppg, 3.3 apg).
Reason for Concern: The Cardinal’s hot start must be taken with a grain of salt. Stanford had a relatively easy non-conference slate, which allowed the team to mask its offensive shortcomings by slowing down the game and limiting possessions against less-talented opponents. The Cardinal, however, may not be able to dictate the tempo as easily against Pac-12 competition. Taking care of the ball is also a concern for Stanford, who averages a league-worst 15.5 turnovers per game.
UCLA | Midseason Grade: D-
Record: 7-6
SOS: 165
NET: 171
KenPom offense: 79th nationally; 8th in conference
KenPom defense: 200th nationally; 12th in conference
Good News: First-year coach Mick Cronin is one of the best in the business, so it’s safe to assume there will eventually be a resurrection in Westwood. Until then, the Bruins will need to find small victories this season. For example, eight of UCLA’s top-ten scorers are underclassmen, so there is reason to be optimistic for the future of the program. The Bruins have some nice building blocks in freshman Tyger Campbell (8.6 ppg, 4.2 apg), and sophomores Cody Riley (10.6 ppg) and Jalen Hill (9.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg).
Reason for Concern: Perhaps no team in the Pac-12 has been a bigger disappointment than UCLA, who wrapped up non-conference play with a loss at home against Cal State-Fullerton. A big reason for the Bruins’ struggles: the team is entirely made up of players that were recruited by former coach Steve Alford. As a result, this unit lacks qualities that are synonymous with Cronin-led teams: toughness, discipline and a commitment to defense. If the current group of players doesn’t buy into Cronin’s philosophy quickly, it could be a long season ahead for UCLA.
USC | Midseason Grade: B
Record: 11-2
SOS: 110
NET: 65
KenPom offense: 64th nationally; 5th in conference
KenPom defense: 72nd nationally; 7th in conference
Good News: USC has one of the best frontcourts in the Pac-12, led by the big man duo of Onyeka Okongwu (17 ppg, 9 rpg) and Nick Rakocevic (12.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg). They set the tone on both ends of the floor for the Trojans, who quietly had a solid non-conference season, notching wins over LSU and TCU. With so much size on its front line, it is not surprising USC averages a league-best 39.8 rebounds per game.
Reason for Concern: USC’s current roster has only three players from last year’s squad, so the team’s cohesiveness is still a work in progress. Every now and then, it becomes evident especially on the offensive end, where the Trojans tend to get sloppy—they average nearly 15 turnovers per game. Another area of concern: USC shoots a league-worst 66.5 percent from the charity stripe. In order to have success in conference play, they’ll need to improve in these two statistical categories.
UTAH | Midseason Grade: B-
Record: 9-3
SOS: 98
NET: 62
KenPom offense: 66th nationally; 6th in conference
KenPom defense: 163rd nationally; 10th in conference
Good News: Utah has been one of the biggest surprises in the Pac-12 this season. Picked to finish ninth the conference’s preseason poll, the Utes have defied the prognosticators. Despite an overwhelming amount of youth—10 of Utah’s 12 scholarship players are underclassmen—coach Larry Krystowiak has once again found a way to make the Utes competitive. Led by sophomore wing Timmy Allen (21 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Utah owns two of the league’s best non-conference wins—against Kentucky (neutral site) and BYU (home).
Reason for Concern: Inconsistency has been the primary issue for this Utah team. Yes, they’ve secured some impressive wins in non-conference play, but they’ve also had some head-scratching losses against Coastal Carolina and Tulane. They’ve also been shaky on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank toward the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Utah undoubtedly has one of the best coaches in college basketball, but the team’s youth and inexperience could be a problem as the season unfolds.
WASHINGTON | Midseason Grade: B
Record: 10-3
SOS: 152
NET: 40
KenPom offense: 62nd nationally; 4thin conference
KenPom defense: 39th nationally; 3rd in conference
Good News: It’s a new cast of characters this season, but Washington continues to stifle opponents with its trademark 2-3 matchup zone. The Huskies have held opponents to 64 points per game on 38 percent shooting from the field. On the other end of the floor, Washington has used a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging over 11 points per game. The Huskies have been paced by the freshmen duo of Isaiah Stewart (19.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Jaden McDaniels (14.3 ppg), who are likely one-and-done talents.
Reason for Concern: Washington has a talented starting five, but their lack of depth is a real concern. Coach Mike Hopkins typically uses an eight-man rotation, with only one reserve (Jamal Bey) receiving more than 10 minutes per game. Furthermore, the Huskies get almost no production from their bench, which accounts for less than 15 percent of the team’s scoring and rebounding. Translation: Foul trouble—or even worse, injuries—could have a crippling effect on this season’s group.
WASHINGTON STATE | Midseason Grade: C-
Record: 9-4
SOS: 349
NET: 125
KenPom offense: 184th nationally; 11th in conference
KenPom defense: 123rd nationally; 9th in conference
Good News: Things are looking up in Pullman, where new coach Kyle Smith has Washington State heading in the right direction. Smith has utilized an analytics-driven approach to generate some early-season success for the Cougars. It also helps that the first-year coach can rely on sophomore wing CJ Elleby (20.1 ppg), who is one of the top scorers in the conference. Junior guard Isaac Bonton (13 ppg), a JUCO transfer has also provided some scoring punch.
Reason for Concern: Washington State’s non-conference schedule was filled with a bunch of cream puffs, so that 9-4 record is a bit deceiving. In fact, the Cougar’s strength of schedule ranks 349th (out of 351 D1 teams). Perhaps the bigger concern is the team’s lack of shooting. Washington State shoots a league-worst 40.7 percent from the field and 29.1 percent from 3-point range. Unless those numbers drastically improve, the Cougars could struggle against better competition in Pac-12 play.
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PAC-12 MIDSEASON HONOR ROLL
It’s always tough to hand out midseason awards because the “real” season hasn’t even begun, but we’ll try our best to do so. Keep in mind, these awards are a reflection of what has already unfolded, not predictions for the rest of the season.
Without further ado, here’s our version of the Pac-12 honor roll:
Best Team: Oregon
Biggest (Pleasant) Surprise: Stanford
Best Player: Payton Pritchard, Oregon
Top Freshman: Isaiah Stewart, Washington
Best Defender: Kylor Kelley, Oregon State
Top Newcomer (Transfer): Chris Duarte, Oregon
Best Coaching Performance: Jerrod Haase, Stanford
