The Conference of Champions?
These days, it’s been more like the Conference of Mediocrity for the Pac-12 this season.
As a whole, the league has struggled mightily during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Heading into Pac-12 play, the league has no teams ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since the 2011-12 season.
If you remember, that’s the year Washington won the regular season title…and still didn’t qualify for the NCAA Tournament. In fact, only two Pac-12 teams went dancing in 2011-12, and the conference could be headed toward a similar fate this season.
Arizona State, who had been ranked for most of the season, seemed to be the clear-cut favorite heading into last weekend. And then they promptly lost to Princeton – at home.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it -- the Pac-12 has been awful the first two months of the season. However, there is a silver lining in all of this mediocrity: the league will be wide open this year, and that should make it very interesting.
Let’s take a look at each team and see where they stand at the midway point of the season.
(Teams are listed in order of the grade they received):
Arizona State (9-3 record) | Midseason Grade: B
Top Performer: Zylan Cheatham – Other teammates (like Luguentz Dort or Remy Martin) may get the headlines, but you can make a strong case for Cheatham being ASU’s most valuable player. The athletic 6-8 forward recorded a triple-double—only the second one in program history—earlier this season in a win against Texas Southern. His rebounding and defense have set the tone for ASU on the court, while his leadership and experience has been a stabilizing force for a young Sun Devil squad.
Good News: Unlike last season’s team, which relied on a guard-heavy attack and 3-point shooting, this year’s group is built to win games in a variety of ways. They are less predictable on offense and have multiple players making big contributions (six average at least 9 points per game). Perhaps even more important, ASU has become one of the best rebounding and defensive teams in the Pac-12, and that should translate to long-term success.
Reason for Concern: Saturday’s stunning loss to Princeton—who came into the game with a NET ranking of 273—is cause for concern. All of ASU’s good wins in non-conference play (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Utah State) were quickly forgotten after the team’s poor showing on Saturday. How will the Sun Devils respond? Remember, they struggled in Pac-12 play (8-10 record) last season. Could ASU experience a late-season collapse for a second consecutive year?
Arizona (9-4 record) | Midseason Grade: B-
Top Performer: Brandon Randolph – The sophomore wing has emerged as one of the top players in the Pac-12 this season. He is among the league leaders in scoring (16.8 per game), three-point field goals (21), and free throw percentage (88.7). He can be a bit streaky at times, but when he has it going, the 6-6 guard is capable of single-handedly taking over a game. The Wildcats have a good shot of making the NCAA Tournament but will need Randolph to continue his stellar play the rest of the way.
Good News: Aside from ASU, the Wildcats have the most impressive résumé heading into Pac-12 play. They have a neutral-site win against Iowa State (in the Maui Invitational) and beat UConn in a true road game. Even Arizona’s losses, all of which came against high-major opponents (yes, I’m counting Gonzaga as a high-major program) are not terrible. Another thing to consider: Sean Miller is a master at developing personnel; so don’t be surprised to see this group make a late-season push.
Reason for Concern: This is not the typical Arizona team that we’ve been accustomed to watching in recent years. They lack star power, and unlike most Sean Miller-led teams, they have struggled on defense at times. This group is still searching for its identity as it heads into conference play, but if they want to go dancing in March, they better figure it out quickly.
Washington (8-4 record, with one last non-conference game to be played) | Midseason Grade: C+
Top Performer: Jaylen Nowell – The sophomore guard is one of the best pure scorers in the conference. Earlier this season, he tallied a career-high 32 points in a win against Santa Clara and had 26 points in a loss at Gonzaga. Nowell has always been able to get into the lane and create scoring opportunities, but this season he’s also added a consistent jumper. That has translated to better-shooting numbers—53.1 percent from the field and 40.5 from beyond the arc—and even more confidence in his game.
Good News: This is a veteran-laden lineup—five of the players in Washington’s eight-man rotation are upperclassmen—which should pay dividends as the season progresses. Additionally, the Huskies’ 2-3 zone has continued to be effective in year two of the Mike Hopkins era. Washington limits opponents to 39 percent shooting from the field, and according to statistician Ken Pomeroy, their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks best among all Pac-12 teams.
Reason for Concern: As good as Washington’s defense has been, their offense is marginal, at best. They shoot only 44.2 percent from the field, while their scoring (70.1 per game) and 3-point shooting (30.7 percent) rank dead last in the Pac-12. If the Huskies have any aspirations of making the NCAA Tournament, they’ll need to improve on the offensive end of the floor.
Oregon (9-4 record) | Midseason Grade: C+
Top Performer: Bol Bol – The freshman sensation has missed the last four games due to a foot injury, but prior to that, he was a one-man wrecking crew for the Ducks. He is among the league leaders in scoring (21 PPG), rebounds (9.6 RPG) and blocked shots (2.7 BPG). Standing 7-foot-2 with remarkable agility and an uncanny inside/out game, he’s often been described as a “unicorn” on the basketball court. With his size and versatile skill set, it’s not surprising he’s rising up various NBA mock drafts.
Good News: With multiple NBA prospects on its roster, the Ducks have as much talent as any team in the conference. With a nice blend of experienced upperclassmen and gifted freshmen, Oregon has managed to stay afloat with a 9-4 record despite battling numerous injuries. If they can stay healthy—and that’s a big if—the Ducks can rely on its stingy defense to win close games. They have held opponents to a league-low 62.5 points per game on 37.4 percent shooting from the field.
Reason for Concern: Oregon has resembled a M.A.S.H. unit more than a basketball team this season. And unfortunately for Dana Altman and his crew, the injuries continue to pile up. Freshman forward Louis King is back after missing the first six games of the season, but the Ducks will begin conference play without three key players: Bol (foot), Abu Kigab (foot) and Kenny Wooten. It is unknown when Bol and Kigab will return to action, but Wooten is expected to miss four-to-six weeks.
Colorado (9-3 record) | Midseason Grade: C
Top Performer: McKinley Wright IV – Everything in Boulder still runs through its star point guard, who leads the team in scoring (13.8 per game), assists (5.8) and steals (1.4). He has not made the big jump in his sophomore year as many expected, however, he is still widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, point guards in the conference.
Good News: Wright may be the catalyst for Colorado, but they’ve also gotten significant contributions from frontcourt players Lucas Siewert, Tyler Bey and Evan Battey. Along with Wright, they have formed a strong nucleus and guided the Buffs to a 9-3 mark in non-conference play, which is tied for the league’s best record heading into January. A young team that is still trying to allocate roles and firm up its rotation, Colorado has relied on a solid defense, which ranks 58th nationally (according to KenPom).
Reason for Concern: Colorado’s record is somewhat deceiving considering its strength of schedule. Only one of their wins came against an opponent ranked in the top-150 of the NET, which was Drake (NET of 97). As a result, it’s hard to truly gauge how good this team is. Colorado could be fool’s gold, and at a minimum, will need to capture some résumé-boosting wins in Pac-12 play in order to qualify for the postseason.
Oregon State (8-4 record) | Midseason Grade: C
Top Performer: Tres Tinkle – One of the most versatile players in the conference, the redshirt junior has propelled the Beavers to a solid start. Tinkle is the pulse of this Oregon State team and affects the game in a myriad of ways. The 6-8 forward leads the team in scoring, rebounds, assists, and steals. An All-Pac-12 first team selection last season, he is well on his way to earning that distinction once again.
Good News: Oregon State has literally been competitive in every game this season. Their four losses are by a combined 16 points, with the largest defeat coming by a six-point margin. Not surprisingly the Beavers have relied on Tinkle and the Thompson brothers—Stephen and Ethan—to lead the way. However, they’ve also gotten significant contributions from JUCO transfer Kylor Kelley. The 7-foot center has emerged as a dominant rim protector for the Beavers and leads the nation in blocks (4.1 per game).
Reason for Concern: The Beavers have been extremely competitive but they haven’t figured out how to win the tight ones. In games decided by six points or less, they have a 2-4 record. If Oregon State hopes to emerge as a dark horse in the Pac-12 race, they will need to do a better job of closing out games.
Stanford (7-5 record) | Midseason Grade: C-
Top Performer: KZ Okpala – A multidimensional player with athleticism and skill, Okpala has as much upside as any player in the conference. As a result of his breakout sophomore season, the 6-9 forward is skyrocketing up NBA draft boards. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding, but perhaps more impressively, he has become a knockdown shooter from beyond the arc. After shooting only 22.6 percent from 3-point range as a freshman, Okpala is connecting on nearly 47 percent of his 3’s this season.
Good News: Stanford has played one of the most grueling non-conference schedules in the country. All five of their losses have come against teams that are currently ranked in the NET’s top-50. The Cardinal are certainly battle-tested, and that should bode well for them once the Pac-12 season begins. A few other things working in Stanford’s favor: its length, athleticism, and a deep bench.
Reason for Concern: This is a young and inexperienced group. Eight players in Stanford’s 10-man rotation are underclassmen, which might explain why they commit a league-worst 15.6 turnovers per game. Another area of concern: the Cardinal’s struggles from the free throw line. They shoot 66.9 percent from the charity stripe—the only Pac-12 team with a lower percentage is UCLA.
Utah (6-6 record) | Midseason Grade: D+
Top Performer: Sedrick Barefield – The senior guard has been a steadying force the Utes this season. Barefield, who has come off the bench in recent weeks, has excelled in his new role as “super sub”. In a loss against sixth-ranked Nevada on Saturday, he erupted for a season-high 33 points on 10-of-15 shooting. On a team that lacks consistent scoring, look for Barefield to put up big numbers in Pac-12 play.
Good News: It appears to be a transitional year for Utah, but the future looks bright for the program. Four of the team’s top five scorers are underclassmen: Donnie Tillman, Timmy Allen, Riley Battin and Both Gach. So while the Utes may take their lumps this season, they are gaining valuable experience that should pay dividends down the road. You can bet that coach Larry Krystowiak, who is widely considered one of the best in the business, will have things rolling again in no time.
Reason for Concern: Unlike most Krystowiak-led teams, Utah has struggled on the defensive end this season. According to KenPom, their defensive efficiency, which ranks 266th nationally, is among the worst in the conference. Opponents have shot 46.1 percent from the field against the Utes—the only Pac-12 team that has allowed a higher percentage this season is Cal.
UCLA (7-6 record) | Midseason Grade: D
Top Performer: Kris Wilkes – The smooth 6-8 forward has been a bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season for the Bruins. He is among the league leaders in scoring (17.5 per game), and has taken on more of a leadership role this year. Once he figures out how to impact the game in other areas—not just scoring—he’ll be unstoppable.
Good News: Monday’s big announcement that Steve Alford was relieved of his duties as UCLA’s head coach might be the necessary catalyst to turn this season around. It couldn’t get any worse, right? This roster is littered with former 4- and 5-star prospects, so having enough talent is not the issue. If interim coach Murry Bartow can get this group to play together, it’s not of the question to suggest UCLA could turn things around in time for the Pac-12 Tournament, which should be up for grabs this season.
Reason for Concern: The presence of an interim coach is always the proverbial crapshoot. Sometimes an interim coach can galvanize the troops and propel them to fulfill untapped potential. However, it often goes the other way. Alford is gone but his staff is still in place, and you have to wonder if the players have thrown in the towel for the 2018-19 season.
USC (7-6 record) | Midseason Grade: D
Top Performer: Nick Rakocevic – After playing behind Chimezie Metu his first two seasons, the junior center has embraced a bigger role this year. Rakocevic is averaging 14.3 points, 1.9 blocks and a league-best 10.3 rebounds per game. Although his team has not lived up to preseason expectations, the athletic big man has emerged as one of the best frontcourt players in the Pac-12.
Good News: There is a reason to believe the Trojans’ best basketball is ahead of them. The team has been without three key players—Kevin Porter Jr., Elijah Weaver, and Charles O’Bannon Jr.—for most of the season. Porter, who is currently sidelined with a right quadriceps injury, is a game-changer. USC is patiently waiting for the return of their star freshman, and they hope the surrounding talent and experience—all five starters are upperclassmen—will be enough to make a late-season push.
Reason for Concern: Even with the numerous injuries, there is no reason this USC squad is only a game above .500 heading into conference play. They are simply too talented to be in this position, which raises concerns about the team’s chemistry. It also doesn’t help that key reserve Jordan Usher announced on Monday that he is planning to transfer out of the program. Losing Usher, a valuable glue guy is a major blow for USC.
Washington State (7-6 record) | Midseason Grade: D
Top Performer: Robert Franks – The senior forward continues to get better each season in Pullman. As a freshman, he averaged only 2.2 points per game. Since then, however, his scoring has improved each season – to 6.3 as a sophomore, 17.4 as a junior and up to a league-best 22.1 this season. Franks, who is now considered a legit NBA prospect, has also become more efficient this year. He is shooting a respectable 52.4 percent from the field.
Good News: Franks was expected to have a big season, however, freshman C.J. Elleby has snuck up on everyone. The 6-8 forward is quietly having a monster year, averaging 15.6 points per game, which ranks second best among all Pac-12 freshmen. Franks and Elleby, the highest scoring duo in the conference, give coach Ernie Kent a potent 1-2 punch. As a team, Washington State will always have a “shooter’s chance” to pull out a win -- they convert a league-best 9.8 three-pointers per game.
Reason for Concern: Since arriving in Pullman, Kent has failed to land big-time recruits, and the annual results in his tenure have reflected the lack of talent in the program. If this trend continues, it’s only a matter of time before the veteran coach is placed on the proverbial hot seat.
California (5-7 record) | Midseason Grade: D-
Top Performer: Paris Austin – The junior point guard is making a big splash in his first season at Cal. Austin, who sat out last season after transferring from Boise State, is averaging 14.2 points and 5.1 assists per game. As the only upperclassman in the team’s nine-man rotation, he’s been a calming presence on the floor for the Bears. His assist-to-turnover ratio (2.35) ranks among the conference leaders.
Good News: Cal’s program is clearly building toward the future. They have no delusions of contending for the conference crown this season. However, the young nucleus of Justice Sueing, Darius McNeil, Andre Kelly, and Matt Bradley should have Cal fans excited for future seasons. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see this program vault into the upper half of the Pac-12 in a year or two.
Reason for Concern: There’s no other way to say it – this is a terrible defensive team. According to KenPom, Cal’s defensive efficiency ranks dead last in the conference and 317th nationally. They give up a league-worst 77.9 points per game and allow opponents to shoot 48.9 percent from the field, which also ranks last in the conference. The Bears can’t expect to win too many games with this kind of defense.
***
This season more than ever it seems tougher to hand out midseason awards, but here our predictions. Keep in mind, these awards are a reflection of what has already unfolded, not predictions for the rest of the season.
Without further ado, here’s our version of the Pac-12 honor roll:
Pac-12 MVP: Bol Bol, Oregon
Pac-12 Freshman of the Year: Luguentz Dort, ASU
Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year: Matisse Thybulle, Washington
Pac-12 Newcomer (Transfer) of the Year: Zylan Cheatham, ASU
Pac-12 Coach of the Year: Bobby Hurley, ASU
All-Pac 12 Team (the conference names ten players in this category):
Bol Bol, Oregon
Zylan Cheatham, ASU
Jaylen Nowell, Washington
Brandon Randolph, Arizona
Tres Tinkle, Oregon State
Noah Dickerson, Washington
Luguentz Dort, ASU
Robert Franks, Washington State
KZ Okpala, Stanford
Kris Wilkes, UCLA
