In what could be the Sun Devils' last game of a shortened 2020 season, ASU drew a less than ideal contest traveling to Corvallis for a late Saturday night kickoff in typical cold and damp December conditions. Their opponent, though, is riding a two-game losing streak and have certainly showcased some deficiencies. Here's a detailed look at Oregon State.
Oregon State Offense
In what you’ll notice has become a major theme for this Oregon State team at this point in the 2020 season, injury issues appear to force backup quarterback Chance Nolan, into what this weekend will be his third straight start.
Tristan Gebbia started the first four games for Oregon State, suffering an injury in the waning moments of what ultimately was a chaotic upset win for the Beavers over Oregon. As a starter, he engineered a 2-2 record to begin the 2020 season.
In his place stepped Chance Nolan, the top JUCO quarterback in the country for the 2020 class. Nolan scored the game-winning touchdown against Oregon and has started the past two games, a pair of losses to Utah and Stanford.
Nolan has completed 54.4% of his passes in those two starts and averages 211.5 passing yards per game with four touchdowns and one interception. He has shown some mobility as well, with 86 net rushing yards on 21 carries in those two games.
Though the injury list for Oregon State includes several names this week, the most concerning one is the possibility that star running back Jermar Jefferson may at a minimum be limited against Arizona State.
Jefferson, who nearly ran for 1,400 yards as a true freshman in 2018 before a much lighter total as a sophomore last year, sprained an ankle against Stanford and reportedly practiced briefly early this week.
This year, Jefferson has bounced back with a vengeance as in five games, he’s already totaled more rushing yards (755) than he did all of last season (685). He currently ranks second in the conference in rushing yards behind Colorado’s Jarek Broussard and is tied for the Pac-12 lead with seven rushing touchdowns.
Though a Jermar Jefferson at partial strength is still better than many other tailbacks if he’s limited – and especially if he happens to miss Saturday – a massive chunk of Oregon State’s offensive firepower goes with him.
There is a substantial gap between Jefferson and the proverbial “next man up” as B.J. Baylor ranks second on the team with 23 carries for 111 yards and one touchdown.
The injury issues continue – in fact, they increase – at wide receiver, as it is possible that as many as three of Oregon State’s top four receivers could be limited or out on Saturday.
The one player known to be unavailable is Kolby Taylor, brother of former ASU receiver Kerry Taylor, who medically retired at the beginning of this week. On the season, Taylor ranked second on the team in receptions (20) and receiving yards (224). He had a breakout game in OSU’s dramatic win over Oregon with seven receptions for 114 yards.
Trevon Bradford’s status is not certain for Saturday, as though his name is listed as a starter on the weekly depth chart, practice reports indicate that his availability is at least a bit of an unknown after he missed last week’s game against Stanford.
For the year, Bradford is the team’s leader in receptions (24) and receiving yards (239).
Also missing last week’s game – and potentially this week’s – is Champ Flemings, who ranks fourth among Beaver receivers in receptions (10) and receiving yards (107).
Bradford is also OSU’s top punt returner, while Flemings is the team’s primary kickoff returner.
Aside from Taylor, Bradford, and Flemings' trio, the team’s top wide receiver is true freshman Zeriah Beason, who has notched 13 catches for 121 yards and a team-high two touchdown receptions in six games.
Behind Beason, former Nebraska transfer Tyjohn Lindsey (7-113-2) and Tre’Shaun Harrison (5-91) are the only other wide receivers on the Oregon State roster to have caught a pass this season.
As has generally been the case in recent history, Oregon State effectively uses its tight ends as pass-catchers, with Luke Musgrave (11-129) and Teagan Quitoriano (11-117-1) leading the way. If the Beavers are depleted at wide receiver and/or running back for this game, the logical expectation is that Nolan will frequently target the tight ends.
Joshua Gray starts at left tackle on the offensive line, Jake Levengood at left guard, former University of Arizona transfer Nathan Eldridge at center, Nous Keobounnam at right guard, and Brandon Kipper at right tackle.
Gray, Levengood, Eldridge, and Kipper have each started all six games this year at their aforementioned positions. Keobounnam has started four games at right guard, while Keli’i Montibon has started two.
Oregon State Offense Summary
In general, the Beavers surely would like to lean on the rushing prowess to Jefferson and spread passes between receivers and tight ends.
In this game, in particular, options may be limited, as the best-case scenario for Jefferson appears to be that he’ll be much less than 100%, while one, two, or even three of OSU’s top wide receivers could be either out or limited.
If ASU can keep its strong momentum alive of harassing quarterbacks and generating turnovers, the Beaver offense can be put into a mode of urgency that is greater than the home team can handle.
Oregon State Defense
In OSU’s three-man defensive front, ends Isaac Hodgins and Simon Sandberg are expected to start with Alexander Skelton at tackle.
On the year, Hodgins is the most statistically productive of the three as he has 22 tackles, including 1.5 sacks. Sandberg has posted four tackles and three pass deflections, while Skelton has two tackles in four games.
Oregon State suffered a major blow at linebacker in the past week, as Avery Roberts, the leading tackler in the entire Pac-12 Conference (69), is going to miss this last game due to a broken arm. Roberts has registered double-digit tackles in four of six games played this year, including an incredible 21 total tackles against Utah. He also ranks third on the team with 3.0 tackles-for-loss.
Omar Speights is the team’s top tackler in Roberts’ absence, having collected 51 total stops on the year. He also ties for the team-lead with 4.0 tackles for loss and is slated to start at inside linebacker along with Doug Taumoleau, who has 10 tackles this season.
At outside linebacker, Hamilcar Rashed, Jr., a Chandler native who was an absolute terror last season on his way to numerous All-America accolades both for last season and the 2020 preseason, has statistically been a non-factor, at least in his typical expertise area of rushing the passer.
Last season, Rashed set Oregon State single-season records with 14.5 sacks and 22.5 total tackles-for-loss, on his way to multiple First-Team All-America awards. Though he has started all six games in 2020, Rashed has yet to register a sack and has just 2.0 TFLs on the year, though he does have 22 total tackles to his credit.
At the other outside linebacker spot, either Andrzej Hughes-Murray or John McCartan will start. Hughes-Murray ties for the team lead with 4.0 TFLs while having 19 total tackles and one sack, while McCartan has four tackles and an interception this year.
The Beavers suffered yet another injury hit midweek, as cornerback Nahshon Wright, who ranks third on the team in tackles (30) and has two of the team’s five interceptions on the year, was ruled out due to a knee injury suffered against Stanford.
Also ruled out of Saturday’s game is Wright’s brother, Rejzhon, listed as Nashon’s backup at cornerback. Rejzhon Wright has appeared in all six games with three tackles on the year.
The two Wrights were listed as one and two at one cornerback position on the weekly depth chart before the injury news was announced, with Isaiah Dunn or Alex Austin listed as possible starters at the other cornerback position. The logical guess here is that Dunn and Austin form the starting pair against Arizona State.
For the season, Austin has 24 tackles and two pass breakups, while Dunn has nine tackles and one pass breakup.
Elsewhere in the secondary, Jaydon Grant and Akili Arnold are listed as the starting safeties. Arnold ranks fourth overall on the team with 27 tackles, while Grant isn’t far behind, tied for fifth with 24.
Oregon State Defense Summary
With Roberts and Wright out, OSU loses two of its top three tacklers as well as the team leader in interceptions in pass deflections. By losing these two, the Beavers lose a combined average of more than 16 tackles per game.
Across the six games this year, in each game, Oregon State has either allowed above average days from the opposing rush or pass offenses – OSU has allowed 180 or more rushing yards in four games and 275 or more passing yards in three games. In every game this season, the Beavers have either allowed 225 or more rushing yards or 275 or more passing yards.
The end result is that Oregon State ranks 10th in the conference allowing 430.3 total yards per game and also 10th in the league by allowing 191.3 rushing yards per game – and that was with Roberts and Wright in the lineup all six games.
The Beavers have lacked tide-turning plays on defense, as players believed to be available for Saturday’s game have only combined for four total defensive takeaways and 5.5 total sacks on the year.
If ASU is able to prevent Rashed from resurrecting his 2020 season with a sack-filled Saturday against his home team, the Sun Devils should be able to pick what poison it administers to the Beavers.
One would think that between the cold Corvallis weather and ASU’s Pac-12 leading 227.3 rushing yards per game entering Saturday that the Devils will feed its ground attack as much as possible against the Beavers.
Oregon State Special Teams
Kicker Everett Hayes is 5-of-7 on the year, though he is 1-of-3 on his attempts beyond 35 yards.
Punter Caleb Lightbourn averages 40.2 yards on 13 punts, while Luke Loecher has punted nine times and averages 45.6 yards. Both Lightbourn and Loecher are options to punt on Saturday.
Bradford and Flemings are OSU’s top punt and kick returners, respectively, but if either or both are unavailable, Jesiah Irish is listed as the top reserve for both roles.
Bradford averages 13.4 yards on five punt returns, and Flemings averages 23.5 yards on 19 kickoff returns. Irish has one 26-yard punt return and averages 24.0 yards on three kickoff returns.
Overall Summary
Few conference venues – especially in cold weather night games – make Sun Devil fans groan with instant agony quite like Reser Stadium, and for good reason, as ASU is 1-6 in Corvallis dating back through the 2006 season. Even if ASU were 6-1 in that stretch, the horrific loss at Oregon State in 2014 would be enough for a lifetime worth of misery at the mere mention of the word Corvallis.
After a tail-kicking for the ages of rival Arizona last week, what’s really left to play for?
Well, ASU still could achieve bowl eligibility with a .500 record – though it is a different conversation altogether whether the Devils would (1) be invited to a bowl and (2) accept.
Odd as it is to play a regular-season game after the Territorial Cup showdown – much less a week before Christmas in Corvallis, Oregon – there undoubtedly is value in this game, and ASU should approach it as such.
Though I would imagine the majority of Sun Devil fans are content with any outcome from here because the thrashing in Tucson is more than enough sustenance to last all offseason long, to finish this 2020 season – assuming this is the final game – with a 2-2 record as opposed to a 1-3 finish helps create more momentum and fewer questions heading into 2021.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Play Like it Matters: A cold, late game in Corvallis in mid-December. A historic butt-whooping of Arizona already in the bag. A chaotic year and football season very near their respective ends. There are numerous reasons why any team traveling for this contest could be inclined to “go through the motions.” Between ASU’s immense potential showed last week and Oregon State’s struggles – and now, their rash of injuries – the Sun Devils have several “on paper” advantages. However, those can be quickly quashed if Arizona State lacks focus or motivation Saturday night.
Take What they Give You: Oregon State has been inconsistent on defense, to say the least, in some games allowing large rushing totals while in others permitting opponents to have their way through the air. ASU should be able to run the ball to highly successful outcomes against Oregon State, but if for any reason that effort stalls, the issue need not be forced as the Devils should adapt and take to the air – unless weather limits the logic in throwing the ball.
Force Nolan to Beat You, But Beat Him Up: If Jefferson plays and is anywhere near healthy enough to be a factor, the obvious objective for ASU is to stack the box against him and force Nolan to move the chains with his arm. In doing that, however, ASU should still make life as difficult as possible by pressuring Nolan when he does drop back to throw. A major positive in this strategy for ASU is that the Sun Devils have generated substantial pressure from their down linemen without sending linebackers or defensive backs on blitzes to generate a pass rush.
Familiar Faces
· Oregon State OL Cooper Darling (Gilbert Williams Field HS), OL Nathan Eldridge (Anthem Boulder Creek HS), DB Mason Moran (Chandler HS) and OLB Hamilcar Rashed, Jr. (Chandler HS) are Arizona natives
· Oregon State linebackers coach Trent Bray coached at ASU from 2009-11
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