With a five-point victory over the No. 14 Oregon Ducks on Thursday night, the Arizona State Sun Devils (18-8, 9-4 Pac-12) took full advantage of what was, in all likelihood, their final chance to defeat a ranked team this regular season.
As a result, they are riding a six-game win streak in conference play for the first time in 39 years. Furthermore, they have won eight of their last nine, and that now includes two victories over ranked teams. This proved enough to propel the Sun Devil into practically every major NCAA tournament bracket projection, as anywhere from a sixth to 11th seed.
At this point, it seems ASU just has to avoid completely falling off a cliff in these last five games of the season, as wins in even two or three of those games would seem to punch their ticket to the big dance regardless of their result in the Pac-12 tournament.
However, senior guard Rob Edwards made it clear after Thursday night’s victory that the Sun Devils don’t just want to get into the First Four for a third consecutive season, but rather “take care of business now” so they don’t have to spend selection Sunday watching a tv screen hoping their name will get called.
Saturday night’s tilt with the Oregon State Beavers (15-11, 5-9) presents an opportunity to take one step closer to doing just that—taking care of business. It will become even harder to envision a scenario where ASU doesn’t skip the First Four and clinch their first birth straight into the Round of 64 since 2014 if they are to extend that win streak to seven.
In recent years, the Sun Devils have become known for struggling with these type of follow-up games. They fell at home to Princeton after last year’s monumental upset over No. 1 Kansas. They fell on the road to a Colorado team they had previously beaten by 22 to follow a double-digit victory over Pac-12 regular-season champions in Washington (who are on the polar opposite end of those standings this season). Most recently, a last-second loss on the road to Washington State—one of two teams in the conference with a worse than .500 record—ensured the thrilling, last-second comeback victory in the Territorial Cup.
That defeat at the hands of WSU was actually ASU’s most recent loss, on January 29, and ever since then it feels like they’ve become a completely different team. A golden opportunity presents itself here to not only keep their footing in the top three of the conference standings, but to prove to even the most cynical of Sun Devil nation that they can be a team that will continue to push the program to new heights, as it has done the past two seasons.
Why Arizona State Can Win: Since February began, making the case for why ASU can defeat their opponent in any given game has just gotten easier and easier. Their six-game win streak, the start of which coincides with the beginning of the year’s shortest month, has come as a result of elite guard play and strong contributions from the forwards, led by junior Romello White. At this point, it feels safe to say the guard trio of juniors Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr, plus senior guard Rob Edwards has revived “Guard U” in Tempe, as this group deserves a huge chunk of the credit for turning the Sun Devils season on its head, in the best way that could’ve happened. As the Pac-12’s second-leading scorer (19.2 points per game), Martin has certainly proven to be the leader of that trio, as he is also the team leader at four assists per game, 1.5 clear of any of his teammates.
But with Martin setting a conference-play low with only 11 points Thursday night—even if it took a couple of elbows to his face that caused a nosebleed and loose tooth to even somewhat contain him—Verge proved he is practically option 1B. He tied his scoring-high in a Pac-12 game in leading both teams with 26 points, which means he has averaged 21.2 points per game on 46-for-87 shooting (52.9 percent), including 6-for-13 on threes (46.2 percent), during the win streak. Edwards also showed that home is where the shots fall, as his 24-point showing against the Ducks increased his scoring average to 17.4 points per game over the last five at home. All that considered, at least two if not all three guys should be expected to continue their respective scoring trends, in which case it’s proven extremely hard to stop ASU. Not to mention, the Sun Devils own an 11-2 record at home.
In addition to that homecourt confidence, the Sun Devils seem to be at a point where the chemistry is strong enough between the guards that they’ll have confidence in their play just from being able to live up to their potential as a trio over this win streak. As Edwards detailed Thursday night, they push each other in practice in such a way that it seems to make games almost less challenging for them when opponents aren’t talking as much trash or getting up as tight in their space when they have the ball.
This has seemingly trickled down to the forwards too, as White came one basket shy of earning a second consecutive double-double, now with 21 rebounds in the last two games. In addition to calling White a warrior every game, even if it doesn’t always show up in the box score, coach Bobby Hurley credited senior forward Mickey Mitchell for the hustle and effort plays he makes down low. Sometimes it results in a bucket, others it’s just saving possession for ASU, or deflecting a pass or diving after a loose ball to break up an opponent’s offensive flow.
This in addition to the return of junior forward Khalid Thomas, who was starting to contribute nicely off the bench prior to his suspension in last week’s road trip, should give ASU the assurance they can hold up in all phases of the game. Because when your team has just about every player who sees the floor, up and down the lineup, contributing in some way or another to the team’s overall level of play, it becomes extremely difficult to stop.
Why Oregon State Can Win: There certainly is a narrative of let-down games by the Sun Devils that have followed big, key wins in recent years that makes its own case for why OSU can legitimately win this game, but they will certainly bring their own fire to the arena regardless of anything to do with ASU. That’s because, as Hurley alluded to Thursday night, the Beavers are an experienced team with strong, veteran players who are coming off an embarrassing 26-point loss in Tucson on Thursday themselves.
They are already at a point where it’s going to take not only winning out in the regular season to even get consideration as an NCAA tournament bubble team, but would probably also have to make a run to at least the final four of the conference tournament, which based on where they’ll finish in the Pac-12 standings will mean winning at least two games there. So, calling this game Saturday a desperate, must-win game for OSU may be putting things lightly.
They certainly have the players to match up with ASU as well, with senior forward Tres Tinkle leading the team with 18 points per game (4th in Pac-12), 6.9 rebounds per game and 1.9 steals per game. Junior guard Ethan Thompson is also a consistent double-digit scoring threat at 14.9 points per game and adds 4.3 assists (team-high) and 4.2 rebounds per contest. Not to forget senior seven-footer Kylor Kelley, who is their last player averaging double-figure scoring at 11.2 points per game, plus 5.3 rebounds and a conference-leading 3.6 blocks (his 93 total blocks are 23 more than the next closest guy in the Pac-12). There’s no doubt there’s plenty of matchups in the Pac-12 on paper that look like they have the potential to expose the Sun Devils lack of size down low—and ASU’s stepped up to many of those challenges during the past nine games—but this one has to be at the top with the lethal duo of Kelley and Tinkle.
And while the Beavers haven’t been the most formidable team since they lost to ASU 82-76 on their home floor in the second game of conference season, going 4-7 since then, they have beaten both Arizona and Oregon by double digits in that span. So, with the Beavers coming off a pair of 20+ point losses, there’s no reason for ASU not to fear a team that will be playing with its hair on fire as a result, and putting every ounce of their effort into spoiling ASU’s high from a big win, as lesser-talented teams have done in the recent past.
Key Figure: 7- This is an interesting one that may be a bit of a reach, but please indulge me. On four of the six games during this win streak, including the last three, Edwards and Verge have combined to grab at least seven rebounds. I’m aware it’s a bit of a head-scratcher to fixate on the ability of ASU’s backcourt to rebound in a game against a team with such size, but Verge (3.6) and Edwards (3.5) are the number two and three, respectively, rebounders on the team by per game averages, behind White’s 9.3. Furthermore, it’s fair to expect a lot of loose-ball rebounds with White and some combination of Mitchell, Thomas, freshman forward Jalen Graham and junior forward Kimani Lawrence (all guys 6’9’’ or shorter) all trying their best to battle Tinkle and Kelley on the glass, but likely having a tough time fully securing rebounds. Given how big of a role excessive offensive rebounds played in Oregon’s comeback effort Thursday night, this is something to keep an eye on.
The good news for ASU is OSU averages the second-fewest rebounds in the Pac-12 with 33.3, and fewest defensive rebounds at 24.5. But if the guards, which includes Martin too (3.3 rebounds per game, fourth on the team), can not stay on their toes watching for those tipped rebound opportunities, the Beavers will gladly raise their averages in that category.
X-Factor: Rob Edwards – We’ve already touched on Edwards’s scoring tear over his last five home games. Well, he could play a huge role in a potential seventh consecutive victory if he can even come close to repeating his 5-for-9 shooting effort from three Thursday night, which helped him tie his season-high with 24 points.
He is the team’s top three-point shooting threat at 35.4 percent, and has helped the Sun Devils dig out of the conference’s gutter of three-point shooting teams. ASU is 13-2 the past two seasons when Edwards scores 15 or more points.
OSU can not say the same, as their 31.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc ranks dead last in the Pac-12, and if that’s what they bring to Saturday night, Edwards can lead a three-point shooting effort that will counter OSU’s prowess down low. After all, an improvement from beyond the arc has helped power a good portion of this win streak, as the Sun Devils have shot at least 38 percent from three in three of their last five games. As is often the case in that department, especially at home, Edwards must lead the charge.
Final Score Prediction: Arizona State- 70, Oregon State- 64
Game Info:
When: 6:00 P.M. MST
Where: Desert Financial Arena (Tempe)
TV/Radio: ESPNU / KMVP 98.7 (Tim Healey/Kyle Dodd)
