Oregon State Preview
Oregon State may have not accomplished the rare last to first turnaround this year in the Pac-12 North, but there’s little doubt that the 2019 Beavers have been quite impressive in this campaign. Therefore, a road game against such an opponent may not be the ideal setting for the Sun Devils to half a three-game losing streak. Let’s examine the challenges and opportunities Oregon State will present ASU Saturday in Corvallis.
Oregon State Offense
After battling issues that limited him to nine starts across the 2017-18 seasons despite being Oregon State’s primary quarterback, former JUCO transfer Jake Luton was granted a sixth year to play in 2019 and has enjoyed his healthiest and most successful season at the FBS level.
A starter in all nine games for Oregon State, Luton has completed 174-of-283 passes for 2,018 yards with 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions on the year. The Brock Osweiler sized passer (6-7, 229) has a pair of 300-yard games including a 328-yard, three-touchdown outing in OSU’s win over Arizona two weeks ago.
One of the faster players in the league, Artavis Pierce is enjoying a solid senior season that could scratch the surface of a 1,000-yard output, as he has 727 rushing yards on 119, carries with six touchdowns. A versatile player in the Beaver offense, Pierce ranks fourth on the team with 21 receptions totaling 142 yards and a touchdown.
Pierce has three 100-yard games on the year and among runners in the Pac-12 with at least 100 carries (11 players), he ranks second with his average of 6.1 yards per carry.
The 2018 Pac-12 Conference Freshman Offensive Player of the Year, Jermar Jefferson has been limited in year two as he has started four games and has appeared in just six of nine. After rushing 239 times for 1,380 yards with 12 rushing touchdowns and catching 25 passes last year, Jefferson, still definitely a threat when at full strength, has just 87 carries for 440 yards with four touchdowns and only three receptions this year.
One of the most talented receivers in the nation, Isaiah Hodgins ranks third in the nation and leads the league in touchdown catches (12), ranks fifth nationally and leads the conference in receptions per game (7.4, 67 total catches) and ranks ninth nationally and second in the Pac-12 in receiving yards (928).
Presumably an early entrant to the 2020 NFL Draft, the junior has four games on the year with at least 100 receiving yards – three of which topped 150 yards – has caught at least seven passes in seven of nine games and has four games with multiple receiving touchdowns.
Hodgins enters Saturday with 157 career receptions for 2,079 yards and 19 touchdowns and stands a very good chance of gaining the 72 receiving yards against ASU that he needs to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career.
Aside from Hodgins, Champ Flemings has 22 catches for 284 yards and two scores while Chandler native Kolby Taylor has 20 receptions for 205 yards with one touchdown.
Noah Togiai is one of the more talented pass-catching tight ends in the Pac-12 and on the year he has 27 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown.
The starting line for Oregon State figures to include tackle Blake Brendel and guard Gus Lavaka on the left side, guard Clay Cordasco and tackle Brandon Kipper on the right side with Arizona native and former Arizona Wildcat Nathan Eldridge or Nous Keobounnam at center.
Brandel, Cordasco, and Kipper have started all nine games, while Keobounnam has eight starts and Lavaka seven. In total, the Beavers have had the same starting five in seven of nine games this year.
Oregon State Offense Summary
Though the obvious game plan for the Beavers is to get the ball to Hodgins as much as possible, ASU can’t target him as the only player to stop as the pair of Oregon State runners are an incredibly potent and proven one-two punch.
The Beaver offense has been hit-or-miss this year to a general degree in recent weeks, as OSU has scored just seven points in two of the past four games – albeit against Utah and Washington – though Oregon State has scored at least 28 points in all but one of the seven other games this season.
At this moment, ASU has the fifth-ranked scoring defense in the Pac-12 (22.2). Oregon State has played three of the four teams ahead of ASU and has scored seven points against top-ranked Utah, 21 versus number three California and seven versus fourth-ranked Washington – an average of just 11.7 points per game against that trio.
If ASU can keep the Beavers within the range of the Devils’ per-game average on the year, odds very likely favor the visiting team quite nicely.
Oregon State Defense
Operating primarily out of a 3-4 base defense, the Beavers feature ends Isaac Hodgins and Simon Sandberg with tackle Elu Aydon up front.
Aydon has registered 26 tackles including 3.0 for loss, Hodgins has 12 tackles including 3.5 for loss and Sandberg has six tackles.
At linebacker, potential All-American outside ‘backer Hamilcar Rashed, Jr., a Chandler native, will be joined on the outside by either John McCartan or Matthew Tago with Avery Roberts and Shermar Smith inside.
Rashed remains a qualified candidate to be the Pac-12 Conference Pat Tillman Defensive Player of the Year as he ranks third in the country and leads the conference in sacks (12.0) and is the national leader in tackles for loss (18.5). Far from a one-trick pony, Rashed has 53 total tackles with 6.5 of his TFLs coming outside sacks, three pass breakups, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery.
On the year, Rashed has four multi-sack games including 2.0 sacks against both Cal Poly and Stanford and 3.0 versus California and Arizona. Ten of his 12.0 sacks on the year game across that four-game span.
Roberts leads Oregon State in tackles (61) with 5.0 for loss with 2.0 sacks. Smith has 40 tackles including 3.5 for loss with one sack, while McCartan has 32 tackles including 4.5 for loss with 2.5 sacks and Tago has 13 tackles on the year.
Omar Speights, listed as the backup to Smith at one inside linebacker position ranks third on the team with 51 tackles and is tied for second with 5.5 for loss despite starting just three of nine games on the year.
In the secondary, Isaiah Dunn and either Nashon Wright or Jojo Forest figure to start at cornerback with David Morris and Jalen Moore at safety. Jaydon Grant is listed as the team’s top nickel defensive back.
Dunn has 30 tackles and a team-high seven pass breakups, while Wright and Forest both have 24 tackles. Wright and Grant share the team lead with two interceptions, while Grant also has 27 tackles on the year. Moore has 27 tackles and Morris has 24.
Oregon State Defense Summary
As a team, OSU shows several defensive deficiencies as the Beavers rank ninth in the Pac-12 in scoring defense (30.9) and total defense (437.1) and 11th in rush defense (192.7).
That said, few individual defenders on a nationwide scale have been as impactful as has Rashed through nine games – and one would have to imagine that he’ll play with the proverbial chip on his shoulder Saturday against his hometown team that did not extend a scholarship offer to him in 2016. According to Rivals, Rashed only had offers from Nebraska, Oregon State, and San Diego State out of Chandler High.
Aside from Rashed, Avery Roberts ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in tackles per game (7.6), while Shermar Smith and Omar Speights also rank in the league’s top-25.
Without a doubt, ASU’s offense must account for Rashed each time he is on the field and not allow the pass rush dynamo to have a field day against the Devils.
As good as Rashed is in pass rush, no one will soon forget Eno Benjamin’s school-record 312-yard rushing effort last year versus the Beavers and OSU’s near 200-yard per game allowance on the ground this year should captivate the attention of Benjamin and the Sun Devil offense.
Oregon State Special Teams
With the team total at a ghastly 2-of-7 on field goals for the year, the Beavers have gotten to the point that they rarely even try any longer. OSU has not attempted a field goal in three straight and in four of the last five games and no Beaver kicker has successfully converted a field goal attempt since Sept. 14 against Cal Poly.
Punter Daniel Rodriguez averages 43.8 yards on 43 punts with 12 downed inside the 20-yard line.
On returns, Champ Flemings averages 23.8 yards on 20 kickoff returns and Jesiah Irish averages 5.9 yards on nine punt returns.
Overall Summary
The Oregon State Curse of 2014 still very much resonates with Sun Devil fans as any time a November road game in Corvallis appears on the schedule, the ASU faithful traumatically recall the gut-wrenching upset loss to the Beavers five years ago when Arizona State was in the thick of the conversation for the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings.
Similar to ASU’s matchup with UCLA a couple of weeks ago, this is a game that in the preseason, despite concerns of witchcraft and voodoo, presents a tougher opponent than initially imagined as the Beavers are two wins away from bowl eligibility for the first time in six years.
With road games at Washington State and Oregon left after ASU, Saturday’s matchup with the Sun Devils – OSU’s Senior Day – has to have a “must-win” feel to it for the Beavers in their quest for a bowl appearance.
That said, ASU certainly has to approach the game with a similar do-or-die mentality, as a fourth consecutive loss heading into games against playoff contender, Oregon and rival Arizona is a reality no Sun Devil fan wants to face.
The name of the game here for ASU is execution – specifically out of the gates in the first quarter. Though the Beavers have played better this year than the past five or so and have two bona fide stars in Hodgins and Rashed, overall the Devils have a clear talent advantage. However, that edge can be nullified quickly with another sluggish start by the Sun Devils.
The difference between a win and a loss in this game for ASU is massive. A victory gets ASU back on track to host a high-ranked Oregon team in a Tempe environment that always seems to give the Devils a minimum of a fighting chance as Arizona State has not lost at home by more than seven points since October 2017.
A loss, however, stamps a four-game losing streak and creates the very real possibility of a five-game skid prior to the Territorial Cup game against Arizona – and an eerily similar situation to 2016 when the Sun Devils entered the rivalry game needing a win for bowl eligibility on the heels of a five-game losing streak and were trounced by a terrible Wildcat team.
The Devils are no doubt severely frustrated by their recent fall from grace and cannonball dive from the nation’s top-25 and no better time for those frustrations to be channeled into composed aggression and a comfortable road win to regain some momentum and attain bowl eligibility.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Again, I Say, Start Strong: In every Sun Devil loss this season, ASU’s opponent scored first – including an abysmal first quarter last week against USC. It is not a very far stretch to say that if not for nightmarish (to varying degrees) first quarters against Colorado and USC, Arizona State could very, very feasibly have two more ticks in the win column and two fewer in the loss column this year. Oregon State has a great deal on the line and a lot to play for Saturday, so to allow a solid Beaver offense an early momentum advantage would surely not benefit the Devils.
Run ENO: Recent injuries at quarterback plus a rush defense that allows nearly 200 yards per game plus a flashback to last year when Benjamin topped 300 yards equals a good opportunity for Eno to reassert himself as one of the premier backs in the conference and allow ASU to dictate the pace of the game.
All Eyes on Rashed: The most impactful defender for either team in this game, Hamilcar Rashed can disrupt the backfield unlike any player in the conference – and very few on a national scale – have been able to do in 2019. He is a known, proven commodity and ASU’s game plan on offense should greatly focus on trying to limit his effectiveness in blocking schemes and perhaps use his aggressiveness against him via screens and other strategies.
Familiar Faces
· Oregon State linebackers coach Trent Bray coached at ASU from 2009-11
· Oregon State OL Nathan Eldridge (Anthem Boulder Creek High School), DB Moran Mason (Chandler High School), OLB Hamilcar Rashed (Chandler High School) and WR Kolby Taylor (Chandler High School) are Arizona natives
· Kolby Taylor is the younger brother of former ASU WR Kerry Taylor (2007-10)
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