The Ducks are the class of the Pac-12 with legitimate aspirations for a College Football Playoff berth. Arizona State is one of the last few obstacles standing between them and that impressive feat. What challenges and opportunities will they present the Sun Devils? Let’s examine ASU’s homecoming opponent.
Oregon Offense
A bit of a surprise to have returned for his senior season, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert was believed to be a high first-round NFL Draft pick this past spring but opted to complete his full college career.
Still likely to be one of the first handful of names called in the 2020 NFL Draft, Herbert has thus far generally fulfilled his destiny as the Ducks have already won the Pac-12 north division, remain in the equation for the College Football Playoff and Herbert himself is the odds-on favorite to be the Pac-12 Conference Offensive Player of the Year and, with a strong enough close to the season, could be among the invitees to the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony.
A starter since midway through his true freshman season, the Eugene native combines outstanding size (6-6, 237) and outstanding accuracy (91 career touchdown passes to 20 career interceptions) to be one of the most talked-about players on the west coast this season.
Herbert ranks third in the Pac-12 in passing yards per game (266.2), ranks third in the league among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts in completion percentage (69.6%) and fourth nationally among passers with at least that many attempts. Also, his 9.3 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio on a national scale is the best among the 39 FBS quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts ranks and second only to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa (11 to 1; 33 to 3) among the 66 FBS quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts.
Through 10 games, Herbert has three 300-yard games and enters Saturday on the heels of his top outing of the year, a 333-yard performance against Arizona. He has two games with three touchdown passes, two with four and two with five.
Herbert could very well top the 10,000-yard passing mark for his career against ASU as he ranks fifth among active FBS quarterbacks in career passing yards (9,732) and ranks second among active FBS players in career touchdown passes (91).
Running back CJ Verdell likely will surpass the 1,000-yard rushing mark by the time the season is over as he enters Saturday with 814 yards on 129 carries with five touchdowns, adding 13 receptions for 122 yards. Verdell’s game-by-game numbers are scattered all over the chart this year, as he has five games with fewer than 50 rushing yards along with a 171-yard outing on just 14 carries against Colorado and a 23-carry, 257-yard, three-touchdown explosion against Washington State.
Travis Dye is a more than formidable backup as he has 493 yards on 85 carries along with 13 receptions for 129 yards and a score.
Cyrus Habibi-Likio, a goal-line guru and champion tackler of unruly fans wandering onto the field, has seven touchdowns across his 69 carries this year and 266 yards. In just 87 career carries through nearly two seasons, Habibi-Likio has 14 total rushing touchdowns.
In the passing game, Oregon has no one true standout and has suffered some injuries to key players but embraces the “next man up” type of mentality to allow for plenty of offensive success through the air.
Tight end Jacob Breeland was the recipient of several Midseason All-America accolades and trending toward heavy contention for the 2019 Mackey Award after catching 26 passes for 405 yards and six scores in six games, but his season ended there due to injury. Though he has missed the last four games – and of course will miss the rest – Breeland still ranks second on the team in receiving yards and touchdown catches and third in receptions.
In Breeland’s place, one-time ASU verbal commit Hunter Kampmoyer is listed as the team’s starting tight end and he has two receptions for 30 yards including one touchdown this year.
Receiver Mycah Pittman also has suffered major injury issues and has appeared in six games with 14 receptions for 197 yards and two touchdowns.
Jaylon Redd is the team leader in receptions (42) and touchdown catches (seven) and ranks fourth in receiving yards (396), while Chandler product Johnny Johnson III leads the team with 485 receiving yards and ranks second with 35 catches, adding three touchdowns.
Perhaps the most intriguing athlete in the passing game of late – and sadly for the Devils a player hitting a major stride right in time for this week’s game – is Penn State grad transfer Juwan Johnson.
A big-bodied receiver (6-4, 231) that physically resembles former Duck Jaison Williams of last decade, Johnson was very limited out of the gates due to injury missed the first four games of the season and didn’t register a catch until his second game of the year.
However, the past two games Johnson has been a major factor as he had seven receptions for 106 yards and three touchdown catches against USC and five catches for 93 yards and a score last week against Arizona. In total, Johnson has 18 receptions for 299 yards and four touchdowns but should be frequently targeted by Herbert on Saturday.
An incredible strength of the Oregon team as a whole is its offensive line, the best in the Pac-12 and one of the most talented and experienced units in the nation.
The typical Duck starting five consists of sophomore Penei Sewell, one of six semifinalists for the 2019 Outland Trophy, at left tackle along with four seniors in left guard Shane Lemieux, center Jake Hanson, guard Dallas Warmack and tackle Calvin Throckmorton.
The statistics behind the experience of Oregon’s line are truly staggering as Lemieux has started 48 straight games at left guard, Throckmorton has made 48 consecutive starts, Hanson has 46 career starts, Warmack has 22 career starts, while Sewell has 17 career starts. According to math, that adds up to 181 total career starts among Oregon’s typical first-team offensive line entering Saturday’s game – and the least experienced of the group is generally considered the top offensive lineman in college football.
Must be nice.
Lemieux has started all 10 games, while Hanson, Warmack and Throckmorton have each started nine of 10. Sewell, very likely the top lineman of the group despite his comparative youth and considered by many to be the best offensive lineman in college football started the first nine games of the year before missing last week’s start.
Senior utility lineman Brady Aiello also is listed as a possible starter at either right guard or right tackle and he has started three games (one at left tackle, one at right guard, one at right tackle) this season.
Oregon Offense Summary
Statistically, Oregon ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring offense (37.8) and total offense (460.4), third in rush offense (179.8) and rushing touchdowns (17), fourth in pass offense (280.6), second in passing touchdowns (31) and has the second-most red zone touchdowns (34) and second best red zone touchdown percentage (72%) in the conference.
Herbert is easily the most talented quarterback ASU will have seen through the entirety of the 2019 season and with the north division already claimed, his sights are on a conference title, potential College Football Playoff berth and possible invitation to the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony. He also has to be considered the heavy favorite at this point to be named the 2019 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year.
Oregon Defense
The three-man starting defensive line for the Ducks figures to feature Jordon Scott at nose, Austin Faoliu at tackle and elite recruit Kayvon Thibodeaux at end.
Thibodeaux, the top weak side defensive end prospect in the nation, the number six overall prospect and the highest rated prospect to sign with a Pac-12 program for the 2019 class, recorded his second multi-sack performance of his freshman season last week with 2.0 against Arizona.
In total, Thibodeaux has team-highs of 5.5 sacks and 8.0 total tackles for loss among his 19 total tackles and looks to make his fourth consecutive start and the fifth total start of the year against ASU on Saturday.
Scott has 20 tackles including 2.5 for loss while Faoliu has 17 tackles including 1.5 for loss with 0.5 sacks.
At linebacker, accomplished veteran ‘backer Troy Dye starts at Will, Isaac Slade-Matautia at Mike and Bryson Young at Stud.
Dye once again leads Oregon in tackles (50) and is tied for second on the team in tackles for loss (7.5), adding 2.0 sacks and an interception. Dye ranks fourth among active FBS players in career tackles (363) entering Saturday’s game.
Slade-Matautia is tied for third on the team with 41 tackles with 6.0 for loss with 1.0 sack and a team-high nine pass breakups. Young has 34 tackles including 3.5 for loss with a team-high five quarterback hurries.
Depending on the formation, La’Mar Winston may start at Sam linebacker or ballhawk Jevon Holland could start at nickel defensive back.
One of the nation’s top playmaking defensive backs, Holland ties for the team lead and is tied for fifth nationally with four interceptions, giving the sophomore nine career interceptions in just 23 career games. He also ties for third on the team with 41 tackles including 2.5 for loss with four pass deflections.
Winston has 13 tackles including 2.5 for loss with 2.0 sacks.
In the secondary, cornerbacks Thomas Graham, Jr. and Deommodore Lenoir are joined by safeties Verone McKinley III and Nick Pickett
One of the peskiest cornerbacks in the Pac-12, Graham ranks second on the team in both tackles (42) and pass breakups (eight) and has one interception to his credit this year. Lenoir has 33 tackles with an interception and ranks third on the team with seven pass breakups.
McKinley is tied with Holland for the team lead with four interceptions, adding 34 tackles, while Pickett has 34 tackles with one interception and five pass breakups.
Oregon Defense Summary
Though the Ducks do not have an individual defender ranking among the conference’s top-25 in tackles per game, the team effort has paid off tremendously as Oregon has one of the most effective defenses in the conference with a host of game-altering playmakers.
Thibodeaux, making a late surge for contention for the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year ranks fifth in the conference in sacks and has bumped ahead of USC’s Drake Jackson (4.5).
Oregon is also the only FBS team in the nation with two players with at least four interceptions in Holland and McKinley. Also, the Ducks and California are the only teams in the Pac-12 Conference with three players with at least 7.0 tackles for loss as Funa (7.5), Dye (7.5) and Thibodeaux (8.0) have all exceeded that total.
Statistically, Oregon ranks second 10th nationally in scoring defense (14.8), 11th nationally in rush defense (100.9), 14th nationally in total defense (306.1) and 37th nationally in pass defense (205.2), while ranking second to Utah in each aforementioned category. The Ducks lead the nation in total interceptions (17) and lead the Pac-12 and tie for 15th nationally in sacks (32).
In six of 10 games, this season Oregon has allowed seven or fewer points and only twice has yielded more than 27 points to an opponent.
Oregon Special Teams
In true Oregon fashion, the Ducks have attempted relatively few field goals this year and have had mediocre results in doing so as Camden Lewis is just 5-of-9 on the season with three of the misses coming from 20 yards (twice) and 27 yards.
Punter Blake Maimone averages 43.6 yards on 38 punts to rank fourth in the conference and 33rd nationally in punting average.
Jevon Holland’s big play impact is not limited to his play in the secondary as he averages 18.6 yards on 11 punt returns. If his total of returns allowed him to be listed in the national rankings, he would rank second in the nation in the category.
Travis Dye averages 21.4 yards on 12 kick returns, while true freshman Mykael Wright only has returned four kickoffs but has a 100-yard touchdown run back to his credit.
Overall Summary
Owners of the longest active winning streak in the the conference, Oregon has now won nine consecutive games in 2019, nine straight Pac-12 games dating back to last November and 13 of its last 14 overall games played. On a national scale, only Clemson (11 straight wins in 2019), LSU (10) and Ohio State (10) have longer active winning streaks within the 2019 season.
Should Oregon win Saturday, it will become just the second team since the conference expanded to 12 teams in 2011 to win eight consecutive regular-season games (so, not including the Pac-12 Championship Game) within a single season. The only one as of right now? ASU in 2013. Utah also has the opportunity to win eight straight if it closes out the 2019 season with two regular-season conference wins. The last time a conference team won all nine league games was Oregon in 2010.
Since – and including – ASU’s unforgettable upset of top-ranked Nebraska on Sept. 21, 1996, the Sun Devils have played 35 games against teams ranked at the time in the top-10 of the Associated Press (AP) poll and have a 6-29 record against those teams. Three of those wins have come within the past five years when ASU beat No. 5 Washington in Tempe in 2017, No. 7 UCLA on the road in 2015 and No. 8 Notre Dame at home in 2014. The Sun Devils also defeated No. 6 Oregon in 2002, No. 10 Washington State in 1997 and, of course, No. 1 Nebraska in 1996. Of these six wins, only Washington State (Nov. 1, 1997) and Notre Dame (Nov. 8, 2014) came in the month of November.
The majority of the 21st century has been unkind for the Devils in their matchups with the Ducks, as ASU has only won once (2017) since a victory in 2004 in Eugene. In total, Oregon has won 11 of the last 12 against the Sun Devils.
Though it seems to oddly be a lowkey popular move for some fans and analysts to pick ASU to upset Oregon on Saturday, the Sun Devils will have to overcome myriad odds to turn that thought into reality.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
For Reals. Seriously. No Kidding. Start Strong: At this point, it’s a broken record request and a disappointingly predictable component regarding the hopes that ASU will begin the game in anything other than lackluster fashion. This is a potentially fatal flaw in any game, much less against a top-10 team such as Oregon. Last week, Oregon scored 14 first quarter points against Arizona – the season-high for the Ducks in the first quarter of Pac-12 games.
In seven Pac-12 games, on only two other occasions has Oregon scored more than seven points in the first quarter of a league game this year (10 against Colorado and Washington State). Overall, Oregon has scored 79 total points in the first quarter of its games this year – the team’s lowest scoring output of the four quarters (109-second quarter points, 108 third quarter points, 82 fourth quarter points). By comparison, in the past three games, ASU has allowed 56 first quarter points with a minimum of 14 in each.
Have the Best Game of 2019: Basic yet improbable, a simple element of this matchup is that ASU likely will have to have its best showing on virtually all sides in order to win Saturday. The offensive line will have to keep the sack-happy Oregon defense at bay, the Sun Devil defense will have to rattle the heavily experience Herbert into bad decisions and uncharacteristic turnovers and the Sun Devils will have to practice stellar ball control against a Duck team that leads the conference and is tied for second in the FBS in turnover margin (+13) and leads the league and ranks 12th nationally in turnovers forced (20)
Familiar Faces
· ASU OL Cody Shear transferred from Oregon prior to the 2019 season
· Oregon WR Johnny Johnson III (Chandler High School) and QB Tyler Shough (Chandler Hamilton High School) are Arizona natives. Oregon LB Nate Heaukulani attended Arizona Western College but went to high school in Oregon. Oregon CB Haki Woods, an Illinois native, attended Pima Community College in Tucson.
· Oregon WR Bryan Addison and attended Gardena (Calif.) Serra High School, as did ASU LB Merlin Robertson
· Oregon RB Sean Dollars, DT Austin Faoliu, LB Mase Funa, RB CJ Verdell and DT Keyon Ware-Hudson attended Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei High School, as did ASU OL Alex Losoya
· Oregon RB Travis Dye and LB Troy Dye attended Norco (Calif.) High School, as did ASU OL Jarrett Bell
· Oregon OL Alex Forsyth attended West Linn (Ore.) High School, as did ASU’s Ethan Long
· Oregon QB Justin Herbert, TE Patrick Herbert and OL Ryan Walk attended Eugene (Ore.) Sheldon High School, as did ASU OL Cody Shear
· Oregon TE Matt Mariota, LB Isaac Slade-Matautia and LS Peyton Yanagi attended Honolulu (Hawaii) St. Louis High School, as did ASU OL Ben Scott
· Oregon DT Sua’ava Poti attended Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco High School, as did ASU RB Demetrious Flowers, LB Jacob Jornadal and OL Zach Robertson
· Oregon OL Jonah Tauanu’u attended Harbor City (Calif.) Narbonne High School, as did ASU LB Darien Butler
Join us on our premium message board, the Devils’ Huddle, to discuss this article and other ASU football and recruiting topics. Not a member yet? Sign up today here and join your fellow Sun Devil fans!
