Contests in mid to late November often offer a sharp contrast to what teams are playing for and the result’s implications, and ASU’s road game at Oregon is no different. It’s impossible the overstate the need for the Sun Devils to win this game which at a minimum will keep their Pac-12 South championship aspirations alive, and at best could capture the division crown on Saturday night. For the Ducks, there really isn’t much on the line aside from bettering their bowl game position. Let’s examine Arizona State’s upcoming opponent and see what challenges and opportunities it can present.
Oregon Offense
Quite possibly playing the final home game of his college career, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert has the attention of all NFL Draft prognosticators as perhaps the top prospect at his position for next spring’s draft.
Though the lofty expectations have not panned out in terms of an ability to claim a division or conference championship, Herbert has a well-rounded skill set that is ready for the next level.
An athlete with tremendous size (6-6, 237) and the ability to move out of the pocket as well as make an array of throws, Herbert represents the most physically gifted quarterback has seen to date in 2018.
Statistically, Herbert has completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 2,621 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions with 174 net rush yards and two scores as a starter in all 10 of Oregon’s games.
Herbert has a pair of 300-yard games this season, capped by a season-best 346 in a loss to Stanford. Though he is not necessarily a running quarterback, he is able to move when necessary as evidenced by his five games with at least 24 net rush yards. Two years ago in what was just his fourth collegiate game appearance, Herbert threw for 489 yards in an Oregon victory over ASU – still by far his career single-game passing high.
In place of rushing sensation Royce Freeman, Oregon has featured something new and something old in the form of redshirt freshman C.J. Verdell and fifth-year senior Tony Brooks-James.
In total, Verdell leads Oregon with 151 carries for 744 yards with five touchdowns. On the year, Verdell has four 100-yard games including a high of 115 against Stanford, but in the last four games – three of which have been Oregon losses – the freshman has averaged about 13 carries for about 47 yards with one total touchdown. Verdell’s health status has been monitored all week and though he appears to be prepared to play, it is unknown if he will be at full strength.
Verdell also has been frequently used in the passing game as he is tied for third on the team with 20 receptions, totaling 251 yards.
Brooks-James brought more than 1,500 career rushing yards into his senior season but has been used less than what one would have imagined from the outside looking in as he has just 53 carries for 294 yards with four touchdowns in 10 games. However, Sun Devil fans are well aware of Brooks-James’ abilities as in 2016 he rushed for what remains a career-high 132 yards in Oregon’s win over the Sun Devils that year in Eugene.
True freshman Travis Dye has earned substantial playing time this year as he has 83 carries for 417 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Another name to keep in mind is redshirt freshman Cyrus Habibi-Likio, whose touchdown-to-carry ratio is off the charts as he has seven rushing touchdowns on just 18 total carries this year.
Though the distribution of carries greatly tilts toward Verdell, Brooks-James has started six games while Verdell has earned four starts.
Saturday night will feature a battle of two of the nation’s premier wide receivers in ASU’s N’Keal Harry and Dillon Mitchell of Oregon, one of the most underrated players at his position on a national scale.
Though he was not named one of the 11 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award, Mitchell has better numbers than the two Pac-12 receivers who were – Harry and Stanford’s J.J. Arcega-Whiteside – as Mitchell leads the Pac-12 in both receptions (64) and receiving yards (1,002) and has eight touchdown catches.
Mitchell ranks seventh nationally in total receiving yards and is one of just seven players to have already surpassed the 1,000-yard mark. He has five 100-yard games this year, including a 14-catch, 239-yard explosion against Stanford. Mitchell enters Saturday on a roll as he had eight catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns last week against Utah and eight receptions for 156 yards and two scores the week before versus UCLA.
A substantial gap in productivity exists between Mitchell and the team’s next leading pass catchers as receiver Jaylon Red ranks second on the squad with 23 receptions for 275 yards and five scores while tight end Jacob Breeland places second on the team with 311 yards on 20 receptions with two scores.
Chandler native Johnny Johnson has just 12 catches on the year but four have gone for touchdowns and is listed as a starter along with Mitchell and Redd.
The offensive line depth chart lists tackle Calvin Throckmorton and guard Shane Lemieux on the left side, with Jake Hanson at center and either Dallas Warmack or Jacob Capra at right guard and Brady Aiello at right tackle.
The interior line has been consistent all year in terms of starting personnel as Lemieux, Hanson, and Warmack have started all 10 games together.
Throckmorton has started nine of 10 games in a combination of starts at left and right tackle but did not start last week. Aiello has started the past four games. When Throckmorton moved from right tackle to left.
In all, the Oregon line has played well ranking the Ducks 32nd nationally in tackles for loss allowed (5.1 per game) and 34th in sacks allowed (1.6 per game).
Offense Summary
The clear focal point of the Oregon offense is Herbert and Sun Devil fans are likely to have jitters entering this week after a rare return to putrid pass defense by allowing UCLA’s Wilton Speight to throw for well over 300 yards last week. Banged up and limited by the first half suspension of Merlin Robertson, Danny Gonzales and company will need outstanding preparation to limit Herbert, Mitchell and the Oregon pass game.
Different from what fans are used to from the Oregon Ducks of five to 10 years ago, this year’s Oregon team is a middle-tier rushing squad as the Ducks rank 62nd nationally with an average of 171.6 yards per game on the ground. That said, Oregon’s three-man attack has breakout capabilities – especially if the Sun Devils are excessively keyed in on limiting Herbert.
Oregon Defense
In the 3-4 alignment employed by coordinator Jim Leavitt, the Oregon defensive front figures to consist of nose guard Jordon Scott surrounded by ends Austin Faoliu and Phoenix area native Jalen Jelks.
Jelks was a Second-Team All-Pac-12 pick a year ago and this season ranks third on the team with 50 total tackles and places second on the Ducks with 7.0 tackles for loss with 3.5 sacks. The 329-pound Scott has 26 tackles including 3.5 for loss, while Faoliu has 33 tackles in eight games.
Playmaker Justin Hollins is joined by La’Mar Winston, Jr. at outside linebacker with highly productive Troy Dye and either Sampson Niu or Keith Simms at the team’s other linebacker positions.
Hollins and Dye have started all 10 games, but Niu or Simms replaces injured Kaulana Apelu, who started eight of the first nine games of the year.
Dye, a Second-Team All-Pac-12 selection last year, continues to be one of the more productive linebackers in the league as he has a team-high 89 tackles including 4.5 for loss through 10 games. So far, Dye is tied with Utah’s Chase Hansen for sixth in the Pac-12 in total tackles.
Hollins has done a little bit of everything posting 47 total tackles including 11.0 for loss with 5.0 sacks – both team highs – as well as seven pass deflections, five quarterback hurries, four forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and an interception. Only two players in the nation have more forced fumbles than Hollins and he is tied for sixth in the Pac-12 in tackles for loss.
Simms has 22 tackles in 10 games, Winston has 21 tackles in nine games, while Niu has 16 tackles in 10 games.
The loss of Apelu is no small matter as he ranks second on the team in tackles (58) and third in tackles for loss (5.0).
In the secondary, sophomore cornerbacks Thomas Graham, Jr. and Deommodore Lenoir are joined by Uguchukwu Amadi at free safety and likely Nick Pickett at strong safety.
Graham and Lenoir have started all 10 games together, while Amadi has also started all 10 and Pickett has nine starts.
Pickett leads all Oregon defensive backs with 45 tackles, while both Amadi and Lenoir have three interceptions apiece. Amadi also has 40 tackles to his credit including 3.0 for loss, while Lenoir has 36. Graham has recorded 43 tackles including 4.0 for loss with one interception and 10 pass breakups, a total good enough for fourth in the Pac-12 in total passes defended.
Though primarily a reserve, freshman free safety Jevon Holland leads the Pac-12 with four interceptions and also has 31 total tackles.
Defense Summary
Statistically, Oregon ranks in the middle of the national rankings in most defensive categories by placing 73rd nationally in scoring defense (28.0) and 67th in total defense (402.6). Thanks to perhaps the easiest non-conference schedule among any Power Five team, Oregon’s overall scoring defense is better than its average in conference games as the Ducks allow 31.4 points per game in league play.
However, ASU – especially Manny Wilkins – must avoid sloppy mistakes, because Oregon is fully capable of capitalizing as the Ducks are tied for 10th nationally with three defensive touchdowns and are tied for 13th in the nation with 13 team interceptions. The Ducks appear to be a bit of a boom-or-bust team against the pass, as the turnovers are impressive but Oregon ranks just 95th nationally in total pass defense (250.5).
An area of opportunity for ASU is in that over the past three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 235.7 rushing yards per game, with standout individual efforts in those games by Utah backup Armand Shyne (174 yards), UCLA’s Joshua Kelley (161 yards) and Arizona’s J.J. Taylor (212 yards). Without a doubt, ASU and Doak Walker Award semifinalist Eno Benjamin should attack the Ducks on the ground with all they have.
Oregon Special Teams
Common for Oregon football, the Ducks this year do not kick many field goals as kicker Adam Stack has connected on 5-of-9 field goals but has missed both attempts from 40 and beyond. Punter Blake Maimone averages 46.1 yards on 28 punts and Tom Snee averages 34.6 on 18 punts.
Oregon has two of the league’s best return men as Tony Brooks-James averages 25.9 yards on 16 kick returns while Ugochukwu Amadi averages a blistering 24.1 yards on eight punt returns with a touchdown. Five others have returned at least one punt as well for Oregon.
Brooks-James ranks 17th nationally and third in the Pac-12 in kick return average, however, Amadi does not have enough returns to qualify for rankings within the league. As a team, Oregon ranks 18th nationally and first in the Pac-12 averaging 14.56 yards on 16 punt returns.
Overall Summary
To take the next step toward the Pac-12 South crown, ASU heads to a venue that has more unwelcoming than any other in the league as the Sun Devils have not won in Autzen Stadium since 2004 – the longest losing streak for Arizona State at any conference opponent’s home venue.
Not only has ASU struggled mightily in Eugene, despite the Devils’ recent winning ways and a victory a few weeks back at the Coliseum, but we also cannot disregard a multi-year string of losses for the Sun Devils away from Tempe.
Mitigating the impact of Herbert – especially in the first half – will be of ultimate importance so that ASU can keep the ball away from Oregon’s playmakers and control the clock by way of star running back Eno Benjamin and the Arizona State rush game.
It cannot be repeated enough how important it will be for Manny Wilkins to have an efficient game for the Sun Devil offense and how vital it will be for Arizona State’s defense to attack and limit Justin Herbert for the Ducks.
This game carries incredible magnitude as a victory can not only further improve ASU’s win-loss record for the year, but a scenario exists in which a win over Oregon – combined with certain outcomes elsewhere in the league – can lock in the Pac-12 South division title this week. Even if those other outcomes do not work in favor of ASU, a win over the Ducks keeps the Sun Devils in charge of their own destiny in the division.
A defeat, however, not only could remove Arizona State from contention for the divisional title but also reverse the course of the program’s recent momentum as the rivalry game with Arizona approaches next week.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Manny Under Control: Though he generally has exhibited above average ball control for most of the season, during ASU’s current three-game win streak Manny Wilkins has had a turnover each game including a pick-six last week against UCLA and a fumble at USC that resulted in a touchdown for the Trojans on their next snap. Oregon is among the very best teams in the country in interceptions and defensive touchdowns, so it will be crucial that Wilkins controls the ball with discipline.
Steady First Half on Defense: Due to the “targeting” penalty assessed to linebacker Merlin Robertson against UCLA, the star freshman will be on the sidelines for the first two quarters against Oregon. One of the Sun Devil defense’s most consistent performers all year long despite his youth, his absence could be substantial against an NFL bound quarterback like Herbert and athletic running backs such as those fielded by the Ducks. Until Robertson can return in the third quarter, ASU’s defense must compensate for the loss and cannot allow his absence to get the defense into a major hole.
Keep Keeping it on the Ground: ASU has had incredible success with Eno Benjamin in the run game and has seen steady contributions of late from backup Isaiah Floyd as well as quarterback Manny Wilkins in the run game. Oregon has allowed some big time efforts of late from opposing running backs and Benjamin has had a better season than them all. Additionally, it would be a major asset for ASU to be able to own the clock by way of a steady run game.
Familiar Faces
· ASU QB Ryan Kelley was originally verbally committed to Oregon before signing with ASU
· Oregon TE Hunter Kampmoyer was originally verbally committed to ASU before signing with Oregon
· Oregon WR Johnny Johnson (Chandler High School), DL Jalen Jelks (Phoenix Desert Vista High School) and QB Tyler Shough (Chandler Hamilton High School) are all Arizona natives
· Oregon LB Nate Heaukulani attended Arizona Western College in Yuma
· Oregon CB Jordan Adeyemi-John attended Valencia (Calif.) High School, as did ASU LB Jay Jay Wilson
· Oregon WR Justin Collins attended Long Beach (Calif.) City College, as did ASU S Demonte King and CB Kobe Williams
· Oregon RB Travis Dye and LB Troy Dye attended Norco (Calif.) High School, as did ASU OL Jarrett Bell
· Oregon DL Andrew Faoliu, DL Austin Faoliu, and RB C.J. Verdell attended Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei High School, as did ASU OL Alex Losoya
· Oregon OL Steven Jones attended Temecula (Calif.) Chaparral High School, as did ASU LB Malik Lawal
· Oregon WR J.J. Tucker attended Harbor City (Calif.) Narbonne High School, as did ASU LB Darien Butler
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