A bizarre 2020 season is thankfully behind us, yet it was still a campaign that showed the vast potential level this Sun Devil team has. Will 2021 be the year where Arizona State can fully realize its capabilities, and how do I see them fairing in relationship to the rest of the conference? Here are my projections for the two division races and the Pac-12 champion.
South
1. ASU – I don’t know if anyone benefitted from the eligibility freeze and the super senior phenomenal as much as the Sun Devils. A loaded and proven defense returns all 11 starters. On the other side of the ball, arguably the best quarterback in the league, Jayden Daniels will have virtually have his entire offensive line back, as well as the best 1-2 ground attack punch in Rachaad White and Chip Trayanum. The one thing ASU will miss (in the schedule rotation) is Oregon and Cal, and that’s still positive, especially in a seven-home game slate. True, the passing game has to show significant improvement from last year in order to capture the division, and Arizona State may have to be flawless ahead of a challenging November schedule. Nonetheless, I feel that this is the year where there are simply no more excuses or reasons as to why this team cannot top its Pac-12 foes in the standings.
2. USC – this isn’t based on the ASU game and its dramatic loss to the Trojans nor any assertion that Kedon Slovis isn’t one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12. But they still have questions marks up and down the offense, and the defense, which wasn't all that impressive in 2020, will have some significant holes to fill. USC did hit the jackpot missing both Oregon and Washington this year, but back-to-back November road games at ASU and Cal are anything but catching a break late in the season. If they do lose the South championship, it may just be by a hair and the head-to-head matchup with the Sun Devils.
3. Utah – Head coach Kyle Whittingham and the Utes have achieved a status where pundits every season may give them the benefit of the doubt and list them as a South contender even though their talent level may suggest otherwise. True, there are more than a handful of teams who would love to trade places with Utah. Nonetheless, uncertainties that have yet to establish a clear depth chart at quarterback and running back, and really an offense that overall is far from being the sure thing, is likely not to complement the trademark stingy Utah defense. It will still be a dog fight facing this team on any given Saturday, but I just don’t see them having enough bullets in the chamber to challenge for the South’s crown.
4. UCLA – This is a team that may end up making my selection look bad. The Bruins’ offense could be one of the higher scoring units in the conference, even though I don’t know what to fully make yet of their wide receiver group. But I just don’t see this defense being one that wins many games for UCLA and rather being a unit that will try to survive shootouts. A cruel backloaded schedule that sees them face Washington, Oregon, Utah, USC, and Cal in five of their last six games may be too much to overcome and prevent the Bruins from asserting themselves as a division powerhouse.
5. Colorado – this is a team that started last season catching a lot of us by surprise but came down to earth later and really with no momentum coming into 2021. Another program breaking in a new quarterback, although their skill positions could surprise and offset that some. But on defense, it’s a unit that gave up 32 points or more to any program that had an offensive pulse last year. And there are plenty such opponents in weeks 2-5 facing Texas A&M, Minnesota, ASU, and USC. That is shaping up to be a hole that the Buffs may not be able to dig out of, and they play all the top teams in the North later on.
6. Arizona – there is a lot to fix in Tucson on virtually every position on this team, and objectively speaking, the gap in talent between the Wildcats and the rest of the South is sizeable. Another team with an absolute unforgiving backloaded slate facing Washington, USC, Cal, Utah, and ASU in five of their last six games. Not what the doctor ordered for a squad in major rebuild mode.
North
1. Oregon – Even with breaking in a new quarterback (yes, I think Ty Thompson will beat Anthony Brown), this Ducks squad is still better than its division opponents and may not even be that close. Now that offensive aspect can still present the team some challenges along the way, and a defense that gave up over 28 points on average (in a seven-game schedule) certainly has to show that they have improved from last year. But schedule rotation misses usually have an impact, and no facing both ASU and USC should immensely help Oregon chances to top the North.
2. Cal – Much like ASU, the Bears have been greatly impacted by the pandemic last year, which is why I don’t put too much stock in the 1-3 record, nor am I overstating their lone win in 2020 over Oregon. I believe this is a team that can and will sneak up on a lot of opponents (and ASU fans should feel fortunate that this is a rotation miss). Quarterback Chase Garbers is somewhat underrated and has some experience around him. And with Justin Wilcox as their head coach, I feel comfortable predicting that Cal’s defense will be more of the more formidable units in the league.
3. Washington – I know I’m in the minority here among Pac-12 beat writers, but I don’t see this Husky team as one that can contend for a division championship. The starting quarterback situation seems still unsettled, and this is an offense that, even in a 3-1 season, wasn't lighting up the scoreboard every weekend. But this is still a team that has a defense that will keep offensive coordinators up late at night game planning, albeit also a group that in 202 let ground attack run roughshod to the tune of 161 rushing yards on average. Yes, still the most challenging road game for ASU this year, but still a team that due to its question marks on offense, shouldn't be receiving the level of preseason accolades that they are.
4. Stanford – This team is tough to figure out, and I won’t be surprised if this fourth place prediction comes back to bite me. And this could be a landmine game for ASU. True, another muddy quarterback depth chart picture as we speak doesn't exactly bode well for a successful season, but I wouldn’t sleep on the overall talent they have on offense. Much like the Washington defense, they do a hell of a better job defending the pass versus the run, and if health is on their side for a change, they won’t be fun to face this year. In 2020 they showed a lot of grit, finishing the season on a four-game winning streak with all victories by five points or less. A prelude for 2021 or just a COVID year anomaly? As I said, this team doesn’t make it easy on you when forecasting their prospects.
5. Oregon State – Another North prediction of mine that won’t be streamlined with others, but I think the Beavers may just avoid the division cellar in 2021. Granted, a 2-5 record doesn't have this team enter the season with any measure of swagger, especially with…you guessed it, a blurred quarterback depth chart and the impossible task of replacing running back Jermar Jefferson. And Oregon State’s defense has been disappointing for a while. So while avoiding a last place finish is nothing to gloat about, it’s still something that folks in Corvallis believe is possible as head coach Jonathan Smith patiently tries to turn this program around, and some feel that this may be the best squad in his four-year tenure.
6. Washington State – The you know what situation behind center is plaguing the Cougars as well, and that could negate an underrated group of skill players on offense and with head coach Nick Rolovich, you know that he will get this unit humming again as they feel more comfortable with his system. But with a defense that gave up over 40 points on average in a 1-3 season, I just don’t see the chances of a significant turnaround this year all that great, and that may be the biggest factor that prevents this team from avoiding a last place finish. And this is a program that in recent years played poorly away from Pullman, so having three of their last four contests on the road won’t help.
Pac-12 Champion: ASU.
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