Now that the conference's preseason media poll is out, here is the ballot I had turned in. My view of the (now old) South division is apparently different than the general media’s perception of that group of reporters.
First, I list the raw rankings, and later, I provide the reasoning for my selections.
1. Utah
2. USC
3. Oregon
4. UCLA
5. Oregon State
6. Washington
7. Washington State
8. ASU
9. Arizona
10. Cal
11. Stanford
12. Colorado
1. Utah
Not only do I think this team shouldn't have too much difficulty with the now old-school South Division, but there's really no reason to think why the Utes cannot be the back-to-back Pac-12 champions after winning their first conference crown ever last year. If there ever was a vote for the best returning quarterback this season, then Cameron Rising should win that honor walking away. And Tavion Thomas should probably do the same in the running back category. Don't be fooled by this team having only five returning starters on defense because playing in formidable fashion on this side of the ball is simply woven into the DNA of this team. This team may not go undefeated in conference play, but they are still the one team everybody else in the league will look up to. The only mystery now may be whether their overall record will be enough for an appearance in the college football playoff?
2. USC
No team in this conference has made more noise in the offseason than the Trojans. And I think there may be some bite behind that bark but again, probably not enough to overcome Utah, let alone win the Pac-12 championship. Lincoln Riley is an easy upgrade at the head coaching position, and Oklahoma quarterback transfer Caleb Williams who followed Riley to L.A., is certainly capable of running a highly explosive passing game headed by the mega transfer portal addition of Jordan Addison from Pitt. Travis Dye and Austin Jones should be a massive shot in the arm for the ground attack. Nonetheless, the defense can be very much a work in progress, and it's hard to see this group overnight transform from one of the worst in the conference in 2021 to now one of the best. That's what prevents them from topping Utah and may just prevent them also from winning double-digit games. Yet unlike last year, they certainly won't be a team that conference foes will be looking forward to facing.
3. Oregon
Almost a carbon copy situation to that of USC with new head coach Dan Lanning and an impressive quarterback transfer from Auburn in Bo Nix has also created quite a bit of buzz this calendar year. Hard to see any of their (now defunct) North division opponents topping them record-wise, but on the other hand, I don't know if they have the type of offense to light up the scoreboard on any given Saturday and boat race many of their opponents, and that can be a cause for concern. Furthermore, when you look at their defense which ultimately is Lanning's expertise, there is some work to be done there to improve on a group that gave up 27 points on average and now needs to replace three of its four starters in the secondary while dealing with pass-happy offenses in the Pac-12. Seeing the Ducks perhaps struggle some and not win too many style points as they did in the past should not come as a surprise, but overall having them as the third-best team in the Pac-12 is hardly an outlandish prediction when judging the overall caliber of the conference.
4. UCLA
This is where coming up with my predictions begins to be more difficult. The long wait for a turnaround under Chip Kelly in Westwood has finally taken place, and there's no reason why this team cannot build on that 8-4 record, especially when having one of the better quarterback/running back combinations with Dorian Thompson Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. But the question marks at wide receiver and offensive line, as well as a defense that, while seemingly turning the corner last season, now has a lot of pieces to replace, probably dampens some of the excitement for the upcoming year. All in all, I don't think the Bruins come back down to earth and once again be the team that has struggled quite a bit under Kelly, but I could also see my high opinion of them prove to be wrong come November.
5. Oregon State
The Beavers are undoubtedly a program that can observe what happened at UCLA and feel as if they are looking into a mirror. Several years of struggle have finally resulted in a winning season, and aside from Oregon, no one really in the old North division returns enough firepower or talent to contend with them. Under the radar perhaps, but quarterback Chance Nolan is one of the better returning signal callers in the league, and most of his main aerial targets are back to this year as well. Nonetheless, replacing running back B.J. Baylor is a monumental task, if not impossible, and can be proven to be a significant shortcoming. And while their offense was pretty impressive, the Oregon State defense, even during a much better campaign in recent years, did have some less than impressive outings, and you wonder if this unit is strong enough to fend off their opponents that would be considered mid-tier in the league.
6. Washington
Stop me if you heard this before, but here's yet another Pac-12 team that will feature a new head coach (Kalen DeBoer) and a new starting quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.). And let's face it, an offensive-orientated head coach is exactly what the Huskies needed to jump start this side of the ball. Decent returning talent at wide receiver may have to overachieve with some lingering questions at running back. Much like Utah, for example, Washington is a team that can usually count on their stout defense every weekend, although this is also a squad that is going to have to make sure that they can adequately replace talent in the defensive backfield amid the effective aerial attacks it will face. Don't think that they are ready to challenge any of the Oregon schools this year in the effort to pass them in the W-L mark, but I'm curious to see what the next couple of seasons bring about in that department.
7. Washington State
This is a tough nut to crack when it comes to predictions. Interim turned full-time head coach Jake Dickert has quietly been impressive with the job that he's done since last year, and rightfully or not, Cameron Ward, who was one of the best FCS quarterbacks last year, is generating a significant level of buildup. Ward may have very competent wide receivers to throw to, but a shaky offensive line that may not only have issues in pass protection but also trying to support an above average ground attack could definitely make the 2022 season a challenging one up in Pullman. We rarely talk about a strong defense in regards to this program, but a continuation and performance from last year may be able to compensate for some expected offensive issues.
8. ASU
Not surprised if many Pac-12 writers in this poll have picked the Sun Devils as high as I did. But unlike many others, I don't see this team being a shoo-in for a losing season. It's not unreasonable to think that ASU will have an upgraded quarterback with Florida transfer Emory Jones and while the wide receiver group may still pose some uncertainties, the tight ends actually can (and probably will) carry more of a load in the passing game and do so effectively. Needless to say that the running game post-Rachaad White has quite the battle to be an offensive element that can even come close to causing the same headaches that opposing defenses dealt with last year. When it's all said and done, a Sun Devil defense, especially with a proven front seven, is one that is absolutely capable of keeping Arizona State in a lot of games, maybe even creating a key play here and there that can tilt the scales in their favor.
9. Arizona
While I'm not denying the fact that the Wildcats have made some improvements on their roster that should lead to a better season, no team that has won a lone contest in the last two years will experience such a dramatic turnaround to have a winning season and/or have a chance of being one of the better teams in the conference. Washington State quarterback transfer Jayden de Laura is an interesting team addition, as is UTEP wide receiver Jacob Cowing, who, along with blue chip wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan are poised to be an instant upgrade in UA’s offensive capabilities. Nevertheless, the running game cannot provide that requisite balance that can make the offense light years more effective than it has been in recent memory, and there is plenty to fix on defense to cool off some of the enthusiasm surrounding this program.
10. Cal
Still shaking my head that Oregon alumnus Justin Wilcox turned down an opportunity to become the head coach at his alma mater because this Bears team that was nothing to write home about last season may even gotten weaker for this upcoming year due to the significant transfer portal turnstile effect. Purdue transfer quarterback Jack Plummer isn't a proven signal caller compared to some of the other league newcomers at his position, and as it is, the talent level of the skill players around him leaves a lot to be desired. True, Cal still should have a good defense, but it's one that will have to play perfect football during each and every contest just to try to match a five-win 2021 record.
11. Stanford
QB Tanner McKee showed a lot of flashes last year that he can build on and does have some talented wide receivers at his disposal. Yet this is another team that will struggle to move the chains on the ground, and more importantly, the worst Pac-12 defense last year in average points is naturally facing an uphill battle and then some to even display a modest improvement this fall. This is in the Cardinal team that didn't exactly light up the world on fire, winning just 11 games in the last three seasons, and if we are to witness any reversal of fortunes up at The Farm, I cannot see it taking place in 2022.
12. Colorado
Very few Pac-12 teams have been adversely affected by the transfer portal as much as Colorado has. It's truly hard to find any aspects of optimism on either side of the ball. With non-conference games against TCU, Air Force, and Minnesota, this may be the only league team coming into Pac-12 play having a winless record, and it may have just as hard of a time squeaking out a victory or two against any of its conference foes.
Pac-12 Championship Game: Utah over USC
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