My 2019 Pac-12 Preseason Predictions
A 2018 Déjà vu? When it comes to the North and South champions, I do believe that to be the case but the pecking order to follow in both divisions will be in my opinion somewhat different.
South
1. Utah – to their credit they got the South championship monkey off of their back last year, although truth be told they got help from an ASU squad that dominated them head to head and finished just one game behind in the Pac-12 standings. Their schedule sets up nicely seven home games, and only Washington and perhaps USC presenting the biggest road challenges and that’s beneficial for a team that usually doesn’t do all that well away from the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. I’m not a big Tyler Huntley fan at quarterback and losing three starters from their offensive line could result in not so smooth sailing. Yet, with Zack Moss at running back and literally the entire two-deep at defensive line coming back, seeing the Utes repeat as division champs is hardly a daring forecast.
2. USC – there may truly be just one Pac-12 coach on the hot seat in 2019, and he will try and help the Trojans bounce back from one of their worst season marks in recent history. Clay Helton’s task at hand is anything but a promising proposition. Nonetheless, I feel that he may benefit from having a squad that just may have a little more talent than its division foes. Hosting Stanford, Utah and Oregon should help to avoid a second consecutive losing season. If quarterback J.T. Daniels make the jump he’s expected to make as a second-year player he will have
A ridiculous arsenal of aerial targets in Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Vaughns, and Amon-Ra St. Brown which works quite nicely with new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s philosophy and negates the question marks at offensive line and running back. On defense USC will be replacing nine starters/significant contributors from 2018, so they better hope this offense will be the expected high-volume producer.
3. ASU – with a loaded offensive squad full of veterans the Sun Devils may have just one question to answer on this side of the ball, and as we all know it’s a huge one. Whether it’s Dillon Sterling-Cole or Jayden Daniels lining up behind center, the degree of effectiveness in which either can run the offense remains a mystery for now. It’s a given that star running back Eno Benjamin will be prominently featured in the game plan, and if his workload can be managed better and if the Sun Devils’ passing game can keep defenses honest then this a team that could defy the somewhat low expectations we’ve seen and will see from pundits. On the other side of the ball, the defensive line has to rely on several newcomers/seldom-used players to create a formidable unit that can help a truly talented linebacker and defensive back groups shine. ASU is another team that can, and certainly has to, capitalize on a seven-home game schedule to overcome the aforementioned potential shortcomings.
4. UCLA – Granted, we expected Chip Kelley’s first year in Westwood to be a rough one but 3-9 probably caught a lot of us by surprise. Thus, there’s nowhere for the Bruins to go but up and I believe we’ll see some improvement here even though the 2019 schedule isn’t doing this program any favors. I think Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the better signal-callers in this division, and the same goes for Joshua Kelly at running back. It’s going be hard to replace the receiving game production of tight end, Caleb Wilson, but don’t put it past Chip Kelley to work his magic even with a roster seemingly devoid of proven playmakers. The burden of proof on defense lies with UCLA’s front seven and improvement from last year will have to take place if the Bruins can make even a modest step in the right direction this year.
5. Arizona – Looking at their schedule, I think that unlike last year the Wildcats can be off to fast start but the second half of the schedule is plenty challenging. Khalil Tate at quarterback and running back JJ Taylor are some of the better skill players in the South, but with unproven receivers and an offensive line full of question marks, I can’t see this offense improving all that much from 2018. I think their defense can be a pleasant surprise, but the lack of support they will probably encounter from the offense may be too much to overcome in order to show significant progress.
6. Colorado – quarterback Steven Montez and wide receiver Laviska Shenault were a nightmare to deal with when healthy (namely Shenault), and with a suspect ground attack, even more, will be expected from this duo in 2019. Don’t know if that is a recipe to get out of the South’s cellar and I don’t know if they have the defense, especially pass defense, to truly mount any kind of turnaround from last year. Lastly, a change in the coaching staff usually doesn’t significantly propel a last-place team to being the middle of the pack, if not better.
North
1. Washington – a very comfortable schedule with seven homes games and only one true, at last on paper, significant Pac-12 road test at Stanford, the Huskies should truly cruise through 2019 and perhaps return to the college playoff for the first time since 2016. I feel as if Georgia transfer Jacob Eason will be an upgrade at quarterback, and having four returning starters on the offensive line can only help with the transition. Salvon Ahmed can prevent the huge drop-off at running back that could happen with the loss of Myles Gaskin the school's all-time leading rusher. Returning two starters on defense will test your depth chart in earnest as well as your recruiting class, and a secondary that the most part tormented Pac-12 passing offense in the last few years may come down to earth a bit. All in all, though, UDub is still the team to beat in the North, if not in the entire conference.
2. Stanford – usually when I bet against a David Shawled Cardinal team I pay dearly for my grim prediction. They get Oregon and Washington at home, and five of their last seven games will be played on The Farm (the last contest being versus Notre Dame). Quarterback KJ Costello is surely an upper-tier signal-caller in this division and tight end Colby Parkinson will be a handful for secondaries to deal with. A disappointing 2018 by outgoing senior running back Bryce Love could quickly become a distant memory if Cameron Scarlett plays as well as I think he can. Having just five starters on a defense that struggled quite a bit last season, is the one factor that could put my prediction in serious jeopardy. But once again, I’ll default to David Shaw and his staff to have his players overachieve and ultimately be the biggest surprise in the North.
3. Oregon – Yes, Justin Herbert is bonafide Top-3 quarterback prospect in the 2020 NFL draft and the offense returns ten starters. But I don’t have much faith in a Mario Cristobal-led staff especially when he virtually pushed out stud defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt. Yes, it’s a defense that returns eight players and now have an intriguing newcomer in five-star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux. But I just can’t shake this feeling that the talk regarding Ducks’ return to Pac-12 dominance may be misplaced. Visiting Stanford, Washington and USC doesn’t make for a comfortable schedule and I’d like to think that their visit to Tempe in late November won’t be a picnic either. I don’t expect Oregon to take a major step at all, but matching their nine wins from last year is a reasonable outcome.
4. Washington State – quarterback Gardner Minshew caught me and the rest of the conference by surprise as he led the Cougars to their best mark ever at 11-2. With Minshew gone, another grad transfer Gage Gubrud will try to be another one-year wonder for Wazzu, and this team will endure the “normal” trials and tribulations of a first-year quarterback in the Pac-12. But I doubt Mike Leach can pull such a significant rabbit out of his hat two years in a row and that could hurt when you return seven of your top receivers. Max Borghi did well at running back as James Williams’s backup and running behind four returning offensive line starters could bode very well for a balanced Cougar attack. While Leach and Tracy Claeys, the defensive coordinator, both insist that their defense is probably going to be better this year, but I have my doubts after losing star linebacker Peyton Pelluer and All-Pac 12 safety Jalen Thompson (late loss in the NFL supplemental draft).
5. Cal – not going to make the mistake I did last year proclaiming the Bears as the surprise team in this division. Just too much talent ahead of them here. By the first week of October, they would have played on the road at Washington, Ole Miss and Oregon and that can set the stage for a long season. With mediocre play at quarterback coupled with the fact that the top three wideouts and five of the top six receivers are gone, along with star running back Patrick Laird, the Cal offense could very well struggle early and often. Ironically, their defense is in sharp contrast in its abilities. This group led the Pac-12 in pass defense and takeaways, was 11th in the nation in total defense, and returns eight of its top ten tacklers. Don’t know if that will be enough to duplicate a 7-6 record from last year, but this is a team that will probably make some games a whole lot more interesting than they should be.
6. Oregon State – I know this will sound like the proverbial copy and paste from last year but the rebuilding stage in Corvallis is nowhere close to being done and being in the more talented Pac-12 division to boot doesn’t bode well for the Beavers.
Pac-12 Football Champion: Washington. I don’t know if their talent is head and shoulders above Utah like it was last year, but they should repeat as league champs this year.