Know Your Foe: TCU
Few would argue that the Big 12 was the best conference in college basketball this year, placing five teams in this week’s AP Top-25 poll, including ASU’s upcoming NCAA Tournament opponent, No. 23 TCU. What are the challenges and opportunities the Horned Frogs, the No. 6 seed in the West region, present the No. 11 seed Sun Devils? Steven Johnson, the TCU beat writer for Fort Worth Star-Telegram, offers his insight.
DevilsDigest: When you look at TCU’s current record of 21-12, 9-9 in conference play, did that match your preseason expectations, or what is possibly a surprise one way or another?
Steven Johnson: “TCU has been through so much this year. They’re a top-25 team, and I think they met expectations. They’ve dealt with some injuries; Damion Baugh was suspended for the first six games of the season. Mike Miles had a stretch where he missed five games and missed a chunk of another one. So, they’ve had so many rotating lineups I believe they’ve had the fourth most starting lineups in the NCAA this year. So that paints a picture of how much guys have been in and out of the lineups. But they’ve beaten some really good teams. And overall, I would say pretty much match the expectation in the preseason of them being one of the better teams in the country.”
DevilsDigest: I know it isn’t a written rule that if you go .500 in conference play, you won’t be an NCAA tournament team. But it’s probably more on the rare side than the common one. Nonetheless, I assume when you play in such a challenging conference, like the Big 12, there’s no shame in finishing 9-9…
Steven Johnson: “None at all. And I will say four of those nine losses came when Mike Miles wasn’t available. So, you have to include that as well. They were one of the top teams in the Big 12. They smoked Kansas, beat Texas, and smoked Kansas State twice. They honestly probably should have beaten Texas twice, they were up in Austin by 18, and Texas came all the way back. They beat Baylor as well. So overall, I think the Big 12 just had one of those years where parity-wise, there were really no bad teams in the conference. Even Oklahoma, they blew up Alabama in Norman. So I don’t think the record of going .500 in says more positives about TCU instead of negatives.”
DevilsDigest: If you take TCU’s record in March in a vacuum going into the NCAA Tournament, we see a win against Texas, a loss against Texas, losing to Oklahoma, which is not one of the better teams in the Big 12, but also an impressive win against Kansas State. Looking at all that, do you feel that TCU is going into the NCAA tournament with some momentum or maybe not having as much momentum as they would want to have right now?
Steven Johnson: “Jamie Dixon, the head coach of TCU coach said that right now he believes TCU is playing some of their better basketball. Over the last five games, they’ve made 38 percent of their three-point attempts. So honestly, I think that creates a whole new dynamic for this team. They do just about everything well except shoot it well from three. So, if they’re almost 40 percent from three-point range, they’re gonna be really tough to beat. Even that game against Texas, and Dixon was talking about it today (Thursday), they had so many opportunities to win that game that I think he came away with it more encouraged than discouraged.
“TCU is the healthiest they’ve been since probably early January. When they play Arizona State, that will be the fifth straight game where they will have the same starting lineup, which has been a rarity. Mike Miles is healthy, and he’s been balling out. So, coming into this position, they feel pretty good. They feel confident, they made the tournament last year, and they’ve leaned on that experience in terms of preparation.”
DevilsDigest: When I look at their stats, it’s very interesting to see a team shooting very well at 45 percent overall but on the downside in three-point shooting with 30 percent and struggling from the free-throw line at 30 percent. How would you define this offense in terms of what it usually does well and the shortcomings that have been there all season long?
Steven Johnson: “Well, when TCU was rolling, it normally starts with their transition offense. They have the No. 1 fast-break offense in the country, averaging 18 points. They share the ball, and they’re not a high turnover team. Obviously, they have Mike Miles, who I think he’s one of the best scorers in the country. Damian Baugh is probably one of the better passers, third in the Big 12 in assists. So, when Miles is scoring, and Baugh is feeding everybody, TCU can look like a well-oiled machine on offense. They struggle is at the free throw, and that’s allowed teams to come back. I will say most of the season at the three-point line; they were always going into games knowing that this team is gonna be plus nine or plus 12 at the three-point line just because they couldn’t shoot it really well. But that seems to be changing because TCU creates a lot of good looks on offense, especially from the three-point line, and they just weren’t executing. So, I would say that if they can knock down their shots, just be average 75 percent from the free throw, 35 percent from three-point range, they have a pretty good offense.”
DevilsDigest: You mentioned the name Mike Miles a lot, and for a very good reason. What in your opinion, makes him such a special player?
Steven Johnson: “Well, I think his natural confidence, and he’s just a scorer. When he wasn’t in the lineup, you could tell how much TCU struggled in the half-court. Miles is one of those guys who can score from all three levels. He can attack the rim and has a good mid-range game. He’s one of the team’s best shooters great dribbler as well, too. When he’s on the court, he attracts so much attention from a defense that he creates so many openings for the others. When he’s on the floor, guys like Emanuel Miller play more confidently and looser. Whenever Miles is on the floor TCU feels like they’re going into every game knowing they have the best player on the court.”
DevilsDigest: As crazy as the transfer portal has been, it’s still uncommon to see a player on a team that qualifies for the NCAA Tournament leave before play begins. And that’s what happened with TCU center Eddie Lampkin. Were you surprised by that, and what kind of impact, if any, will that have on the Horned Frogs?
Steven Johnson: “He left before the Big 12 tournament, and he caused a stir because there were some allegations from his family about how he thought he was being mistreated. And later, he deleted those comments from his Instagram. So, it wasn’t a big surprise for him to go into the portal. As far as his impact, he’s a big body, and I know Arizona State has a seven-footer (Warren Washington). So, I think TCU could certainly use him in this game. But despite how much fans love him and what he did last year against Arizona (in a win), Lampkin was never really their best big. Honestly, by the time he left, guys like JaKobe Coles and Xavier Cork have been more productive. So, I don’t consider it a big loss. Now, if some of those big men get into foul trouble, it could be a problem. But overall, you look at his numbers; he averaged six points and six rebounds, so he’s a solid player. But with him leaving, I don’t think it changes TCU.”
DevilsDigest: In a place like TCU, where the football team had an absolutely outstanding season, is it challenging for basketball to really get recognized? Early in the season, when the basketball was playing very well, the football team was heading to the playoffs, and the national championship game, was basketball still getting its deserved due?
Steven Johnson: “I think basketball is starting getting their due. Some of those games at the end of the year, they were all sold out with 6000, 7000 people, and I want to say that they broke numerous attendance records this year. It’s hard to compare to a team that’s making a run to the national championship game. But if TCU makes a run in the NCAA Tournament, I think Fort Worth is going to embrace them, just like they did the football team.”
DevilsDigest: When you look at this matchup with Arizona State, what do you see as some of the keys for TCU to accomplish in this contest?
Steven Johnson: “After every TCU game, and this is almost like a revolving joke around the beat, Dixon always been talking about rebounding. I believe that 80 to 85 percent of the time when TCU wins the rebounding battle, they’re most likely going to win the game. So that’s going to be their biggest emphasis. They want to get in transition and be able to score. If I’m Arizona State, I have to find a way to keep TCU out of those situations. I was looking at Arizona State’s three-point defense; it hasn’t been great, which might not be a weakness because of TCU’s own struggles. If TCU is able to knock down shots from outside and be able to exploit that, that will determine the game if it’s close. I like this matchup for TCU just because they have Mike Miles, and when he’s on the floor, like I said, they’ve pretty much shown they can beat anybody in the country. But TCU has to clean up on the glass, and they have to keep up their hot shooting to advance to the next round.”
DevilsDigest: How do you see this game ultimately unfolding, and what is your score prediction?
Steven Johnson: “I think it would be a fairly close game that probably will come down to the final minutes. I just think TCU has a little bit more depth because when Mike Miles was out, they had a lot of guys that had to step up had to grow. And those guys, Shahada Wells and JaKobe Coles, continued to play. I think Mike Miles will be be the best player on the floor.
“I would say it’d be somewhere around TCU 75 Arizona State 70.”
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