Know Your Foe: Arizona
At 11-2, ASU is enjoying one of its best season starts in recent history, and on Saturday, their rivalry game against no. 5 Arizona will mark their toughest opponent this season. GoAzCats.com’s staff writer Troy Hutchinson offers his perspective on ASU’s upcoming opponent.
DevilsDigest: Are you surprised by Arizona’s 12-1 record and its level of performance, or do you think they are outperforming expectations?
Troy Hutchinson: “I think the record was to be expected. I know there’s a lot of turnover from last year’s roster, but (had coach) Tommy Lloyd and his coaching staff have proven last year and so far this year that they know how to develop talent. You see that with guys like Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larson. So, it’s a well-oiled machine that knows how to get things done. Now, I did think that the one loss they would have been against either Tennessee or Indiana, and not Utah. And you can easily make the case that even though that Utah game was somewhat of a blowout, Kerr Kriisa mentioned that the team wasn’t up for that one, and they waltzed through it, and they got beat. Arizona should be 13-0 at this point, but they’ve had their ups and downs throughout the season.”
DevilsDigest: You mentioned the loss to Utah, who might be the most surprising Pac-12 so far, so it was a formidable opponent. But do you feel that game was a true wake-up call, a bump in the road, or a game that exposed some weaknesses for the Wildcats?
Troy Hutchinson: “In a loss, you always get exposed in some ways, and with Arizona, their gap defense wasn’t very good at that point. They allowed 42 points in the paint against Utah, and many of those points were not even post-up one-on-ones against Arizona’s bigs. It was more driving the lane and not filling those gaps properly. But I think mostly it’s that Arizona wasn’t interested in the game, and they caught Utah at a hot time. It was a reminder that anybody can beat any team at any time in the country, even those that you don’t expect to. Even though Utah has had a good season to this point, it wasn’t looked at as a team that could give Arizona any push. It was also the team’s first true road game of the season, and the Huntsman Center is one of those places where it’s pretty tough to play.”
DevilsDigest: Looking at Arizona statistically, it’s fascinating to see them as both the No. 1 Pac-12 offense, which makes perfect sense, but also last in team defense. Does it surprise you that this team is comfortable getting into a shootout every game because, ultimately, they will score an average of 90 points? Or is this a warning sign that can affect them down the road?
Troy Hutchinson: “I think it’s definitely something that Lloyd wants to fix. Even though he has an offensive-minded coach, if you look at last year’s team, I think they ranked in the 100s in terms of team defense total points. But they were good in other statistical categories, like three-point defense, steals, and field-goal percentage. And when you have so many possessions, teams are going to score on you. But going into the year, I felt like this team could be better defensively than last year’s team, and they haven’t gotten there.
“Two keys here are that one, it’s hard to replace Dalen Terry, who, in my opinion, was the best defensive player in the Pac-12 last season even though he didn’t win Defensive Player of the Year. He could lock down positions one through four for the Wildcats. Two, you need to find that other rim protector. Yes, you have Oumar Ballo, but last year you also had Christian Koloko. Arizona averaged around eight blocks per game last season. This year, they’re about four blocks per game. That’s something that’s hard to replace when you look at Arizona’s roster.
“I do think that the stats are a little skewed. A lot of those points are being given up when the game is basically over. I think Cincinnati went on a 10-0 run to close out the game to make it a ten-point loss. Creighton went on an 8-1 run to make that game a little bit more interesting. Those are situations where I feel like they got relaxed and gave up some easy buckets. But when this team needs to lock in defensively, they’ve shown the ability to do that against Indiana and Tennessee. It’s a matter of putting that effort in a full complete game.”
DevilsDigest: I wanted to get your take on a couple of players, first is Azuolas Tubelis, who, to no one’s surprise, is a prime candidate for Pac-12 Player of the Year, averaging over 20 points and over 8.5 rebounds. Did you expect him to elevate his game as much as he has following a 2021-22 season where he already showed he was one of the best in the conference?
Troy Hutchinson: “I think there were a lot of question marks concerning Tubelis, especially for the Arizona fan base, with how he ended the season, with poor play in the Pac 12 tournament, and then nonexistent during the NCAA tournament. This year the question was can you be that go-to guy for Arizona? And that has been a resounding ‘yes.’ One of the keys, in terms of his development, is his toughness and his play in the low post. He’s still trying to develop his three-point shot, and we saw that against Utah, where the Utes allowed him to take threes, and he wasn’t knocking them down. But then he hit some huge threes and some jump shots against Tennessee.
“During the offseason, assistant coach Riccardo Fois had him, and Ballo go through boxing classes to develop their footwork and their toughness. And I think you’re seeing that pay off for Arizona. And one of the keys to that, with that footwork, is his positioning which is probably the best in the Pac-12. When you look at how he’s able to get between his man and the basket, position his body correctly and give his guy an open passing lane… he’s one of the best in the country at doing that. And it’s what’s made him so effective this season.”
DevilsDigest: Another player I wanted to discuss is Kerr Kriisa. A very fiery player who I think a lot of us have already put the over/under of him trying to egg the ASU crowd on Saturday at a five, but truly one of those players who could get under your skin when you face him, but someone you would love to have on your team. Personality aside, he’s an excellent point guard averaging over six assists a game and effectively guiding this explosive. He is another player who showed well last year but has really taken his game to another level this season…
Troy Hutchinson: “Last year, he was on a roll in terms of assistant-to-turnover ratio at the end of the year, and then he got hurt. He couldn’t play much in the NCAA Tournament very much, and you saw that when he was out there, he wasn’t at full strength for Arizona., and that hurt them in the loss to Houston. Yes, he’s known as a shooter, but his passing ability is what makes this team click. He does have turnover issues at times, but he still keeps it at a high assist-to-turnover ratio. At one point in the season, he was at 7.7 assists to 1.2 turnovers. I think any coach in the country would take that. His shooting comes and goes, but his ability to lead the fast break is what makes him such a great player for the Wildcats.”
DevilsDigest: I don’t know if deficiency is the right word, but Arizona’s bench play hasn’t been a strength. Now, sure, when your five starters average over 70 points a game, which is probably more than half of the Pac-12 teams and their entire roster, maybe you don’t need to rely on your bench that much at all. But do you feel that it’s one area that can be acknowledged as being a shortcoming that, down the road, could be the difference between a very good and a very special season for Arizona?
Troy Hutchinson: “Consistency has been a problem for the bench, but I do think there is talent there. When you look at Cedric Henderson, for example, he is without a doubt the leader of the bench, a veteran who transferred from Campbell. He can get on some hot streaks and score in bunches, but he’s also good without the basketball, so I don’t question his ability. The coaches will go to him when they need him. So sometimes he doesn’t have the output that you would like. But with everybody else, it’s a very young group. Kylan Boswell is a freshman who’s only 17 years old. Adama Ball is 18 or 19 years old. And then you have a freshman in Henri Veesaar who’s never played in the US. So, it’s a very young bench. But it’s a very talented bench. As of late, even though the points haven’t been there every game, they scored well against Tennessee. They’re starting to do things other than score, which is what the team really needs them to do. Henri was not only completing for some assists, but he was grabbing some rebounds, causing some issues down in the paint for other teams defensively. Boswell has been playing lockdown defense, and then a guy like Adama has to be opportunistic for his shot.
“If they can get the bench to fill certain roles in their game, whether it’s rebounding, shooting, or defense, they don’t have to do everything. This bench doesn’t need to average 20-plus points a game, but if it just does something outside of scoring and gets some positive minutes, even if it’s on the defensive end, they’ll help out Arizona.”
DevilsDigest: I know some ASU fans might gloss over the 11-2 record and not think that highly of the team just because of the 37-point loss to San Francisco. But objectively speaking, this team is definitely playing better than they had the last couple of years. What’s your perception of Arizona State this year?
Troy Hutchinson: “My take is that it’s the same ASU we’ve seen. Bobby Hurley’s teams throughout his tenure there in Tempe have been that Jekyll and Hyde type of team. I do think that their 11-2 record is a little misleading. They beat Michigan, but that’s a team that has been an up and down as well. And San Francisco, yes, they’re a very good team, but they’re not a team that’s better than ASU by 30 points unless you completely give up in that game. So, there are a lot of question marks still with ASU. Can they make the NCAA tournament? Yes. But it’s going to be close.”
DevilsDigest: What are your keys for Saturday’s game and your final score prediction?
Troy Hutchinson: “For Arizona, it’s being focused on what you do. Don’t let the crowd and the pressure by the Sun Devils get to you because I expect them to press a little bit and see what Arizona’s guards can do against that. They can’t let that deviate you from your game plan. Arizona needs to go inside with Ballo and Tubelis and work inside out and get to the line because Arizona is one of the best teams in the country getting to the free throw line. In that Tennessee game, Rick Barnes talked about how Arizona got to the line 27 times while Tennessee got to the line 11 times in the second half. So, if you do that, and you make your free throws, I think you’ll be fine.
“I think Arizona wins this game 90-72. I think it’s close for a little bit than the first half, probably an eight-point game, but I think over the course of the game, too much low post presence for Arizona helps them get it done.”
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