Coming into this year, an Arizona team with a slew of newcomers on its roster was perhaps one of the biggest unknowns in the Pac-12. The picture may become a bit clearer now concerning the Wildcats and GOAZCATS.com Senior Editor Matt Moreno offers his outlook of what the Sun Devils can expect in Thursday night’s rivalry game.
DevilsDigest: Siting at 10-3, 4-3 in Pac-12 play has the Wildcats’ season reflected your preseason expectations?
Matt Moreno: “I’d probably say it's gone a little bit better. I think there was a lot of uncertainty about what to expect with this team. For most programs, in our position in covering them, you get to see a lot of their recruits in-person for a couple of years, a few years sometimes, and so you get a better feel for kind of what to expect when they're coming to college. The difference with this class, obviously, a lot of the guys are players that I have not seen (in-person) before, really only could see them on film. And so, you don't really know what to expect. But most of the class, the freshmen class at least, was coming from overseas as international players, and you don’t really know what to expect when they make that move to the college game. So, there was some uncertainty.
“I didn't really have an issue with where Arizona was picked to finish in the conference by the media (in fifth place). I think we looked at this team and said that at their worst, they're kind of a middle of the pack type of team, based on what we knew about the incoming players. At their best, I think people thought they could at least compete for a chance to win the conference. So, that is how it’s looked this season. I think they're appropriately reflected in their talent level right now and their experience level, and for me, this is kind of what I expected.
“I don't think they would be the team that's dominating the conference. I thought there were some holes on this roster and obviously a lot of turnover, a lot of pieces that had to come together, and you're throwing in some different kind of elements into this. You have the postseason ban now. You have a guy like Kerr Kriisa; a freshman point guard is expected to come in and compete right away and contribute right away. And he hasn't been able to play because he's been ineligible because of a contract issue that he had overseas and isn’t going to be available until Feb. 6. So, they just have different things kind of thrown their way and add a couple of injuries along the way. I think this record is appropriate for where they're at and the team they have this season.”
DevilsDigest: Are you surprised the University of Arizona did enact that self-imposed postseason ban?
Matt Moreno: “I think it was a little bit surprising. The way Arizona has approached this whole thing is that they have their stance, the NCAA has had their stance, and Arizona has really been dedicated to fighting these accusations and showing that, ‘hey, this is kind of a rogue assistant coach who went on his own path and did his own thing. It's not really tied to anything that Sean Miller had any knowledge of and is involved with, and the program is involved with.’ It's been interesting to see it play out when they say we're going to self-impose the ban. I think they saw some other programs and what was going on there. Oklahoma State got their punishment, a one-year postseason ban. You see, Auburn, do a self-imposed postseason ban.
“They looked at the circumstances, they looked at this team, and yes, they're probably a tournament team, but they could possibly also be on the cusp of not making it. You look at this season, the uncertainty that they've had, and just overall the uncertainty that everyone has had with COVID-19. Just getting to the postseason feels like it's going to be a big task. When you step back and take a look at everything, it all makes sense. If you're going to take the time to self-impose that ban, I think this is the year to do it. When you look at their stance and what it has been this entire time, I think it is a little bit surprising to at least acknowledge, ‘there was wrongdoing on our part. And, we're acknowledging that, and we agree with that part of what you're saying we did.’”
DevilsDigest: What in your opinion happens from here on out regarding potential future sanctions?
Matt Moreno: “Oh, I would be surprised if this is the end of it. I think this (self-imposed postseason ban) just is part of it. To me, Arizona doing this is acknowledging that they did something wrong and saying ‘we understood that something was coming down the line.’ I don't think Arizona would do a self-imposed ban like I said, based on their stance that they've taken for the last three years, almost four years, that they did nothing wrong. The self-imposed ban, to me that says they knew something was going to eventually come down to that anyway. And so, this is their way of kind of trying to get out of the way now, as opposed to later, if everyone stays together, are going to have a very good team in the next couple years.
“So, they are sitting out (the postseason) this year, and hopefully that appeases the NCAA. But I think this is the beginning, and there's going to be more punishment, just based on how things had gone so far. Obviously, we don't know how this independent (body) route is going to work. None of the teams that have gone this with their cases have learned what their punishments will be. There is some kind of mystery to this whole thing, and the punishments could be worse than what the NCAA would hand out if you went through the normal path. Arizona, when you look at what's kind of being accused in the notice of allegations, it's a lot more than most of the programs. Kansas is up there as well, in terms of kind of the accusations and allegations against them. But with Arizona, these are severe allegations.”
DevilsDigest: Has there been a shift in play or just in the mindset that you have noticed ore heard of with the players since the postseason ban took place?
Matt Moreno: “I don't think so. I think that's actually one of the commendable things about this team that this really didn't impact them very much. I think the issues against USC and UCLA (both losses) are things that have been there all season. They just haven't played teams such as USC and UCLA. They had some issues against Eastern Washington early in the season and played some opponents from lesser conferences a little bit closer. Those issues ended up showing up more when they played these better teams. That's just a byproduct of that, and I don't think it's necessarily the team giving up because they have this postseason ban. The players have done a good job of working through and keeping their mindset focused on trying to win the regular season and trying to win the regular-season title and have that on their side.
“A lot of these players are just excited to be at Arizona. A lot of them didn't have necessarily other options or options as big as Arizona. They’re excited about the opportunity to play on a high profile team and a high-major program and go about their business that way. But yeah, I think that's actually one of the things that maybe surprised me a little bit, and I don't think their losses have been because of a lack of effort or anything like that. I think it's just they're playing better opponents, and you're kind of seeing some of the issues that were there at the beginning of the season show up a little bit more now.”
DevilsDigest: How would you describe the identity of this team? Does it surprise you to see the Wildcats having a 12.4 point margin average with an explosive offense and a stingy defense?
Matt Moreno: “I’m still trying to figure out what the identity of this team is. I think there's a toughness about them that Sean Miller really likes. Miller will always welcome a team that plays with a bit of an edge, and I think they have that. There are different elements, starting with James Akinjo. He reminds a lot of people in Tucson of Mark Lyons, who was with the team several years ago, who came from Xavier, an East Coast guy that had a lot of toughness and brought an edge. James Akinjo’s not an East Coast guy. He’s from the Oakland area, but he brings that same kind of mindset, and I think the team’s toughness starts with him, and that is a positive and something that Sean Miller likes.
“But I think for them, it's really still trying to make all the pieces fit. They just had a recent lineup change once everyone learned that Jemarl Baker was going to be out for the season, they decided to shift a lot of things with the starting lineup, brought in three different starters, and moved things around. It had some success against Oregon State last week, but I think they're still trying to find their identity.
“It's been an interesting season to watch them go through the ebbs and flows and through some issues and solve those issues and come back. If there is any kind of starting to establish an identity, it’s that they’re a resilient group. There's been a lot thrown at them. They’ve kind of pushed through it, and when you realize how many new pieces they are trying to fit together, that's a positive for them.”
DevilsDigest: Has there been a positive surprise and a negative surprise in terms of players’ performances?
Matt Moreno: “Yeah, I think if you look at two freshmen, Bennedict Mathurin and Ąžuolas Tubelis, they’ve been pretty impressive. For someone like Tubelis, there were expectations that he would eventually be a starter and be an NBA type of player coming over from Lithuania. He did have other options to play in college. He could have stayed pro. There was a lot of talk about how his team over in Lithuania was trying to get him to stay there and have him sign a full contract and just become a full-time pro. But he came to Arizona, and he's been a little bit better than expected. He's someone that can really light it up and score, moves very well down the floor, and plays well in transition. So, I think he's been a minor surprise at power forward.
“I think the biggest surprise is Mathurin. I didn’t really know a ton about him. I heard a lot about his athleticism and the type of player he could be eventually down the line. But he's definitely surpassed the expectations that people had for him. I think even for the coaching staff, they didn't anticipate him being this good this early. He just scored 31 points in the last game, and he was just moved into the starting lineup. It feels like he should have been there several games ago. He started to play a lot better in the last few weeks and provides them with a scoring punch and someone who can really fill the stat sheet and do a lot of different things. He's someone that has some good size; they use him at the power forward spot when they had some foul issues with their frontcourt in recent games. Now, if he can continue playing like he’s been playing recently, there's going to be some talk about him making that jump after one season to the NBA. He has enough size; he has the skillset to make that leap. There might be that (one-and-done) conversation that was not even a thought coming into the season. We thought that he's going to be someone who’s around for three years and maybe four years.
“On the negative side, is Jordan Brown the transfer from Nevada. He is a former five star who redshirted here last year after he transferred from Nevada. He didn’t get to play very much at Nevada, and now that he got a bigger role, he's had a lot of issues fouling and staying out of foul trouble. That's something that Sean Miller just can’t have, and especially defensively, he's had some issues as well. Brown got moved out of the starting lineup. When you looked at what UCLA and what USC did to have success, they were really able to get to the basket and create some issues down low with their interior defense. So Jordan Brown, who started off the season looking impressive and was strong on both ends of the floor, has taken a dip as the season has gone along. They brought him off the bench, and then he scores 25 points against Oregon State. So, it could be one of those things where he embraces his new role, it’s a better fit, and he turns things around. But for a while there, it was definitely getting interesting just because he had that regression, and the coaches were expecting him to be a guy that contributes every night and stay on the floor for most of the game. You expect him to be this double-double machine and bringing you production every night, and that just hasn't been the case consistently enough.”
DevilsDigest: What is your perception of ASU, which currently, is one of the bigger disappointments in the Pac-12?
Matt Moreno: “Yeah, I would agree with that. I think you look at this team; they have all the pieces, they have the experience, then bringing in someone like Josh Christopher, who has that type of talent…you felt like this was one of those teams that every program was striving for. You have the depth, you have the experience, the players who have been through the battles, who understand what it's like to go through a Pac-12 season, to play in the postseason. It has been interesting to see ASU go on the path that they have, and if you're looking on the outside and you're just a basketball fan, it's definitely disappointing to see how the season has gone for them.
“But, I think they always have that talent where they can flip the switch. When Sean Miller speaks this week, and when you hear the players talk about ASU this week, I'm sure that's going to be a topic of conversation. They still have the talent. The guys are still there. There's always a concern if you're an opponent, looking at ASU and saying, ‘they have that talent to get the job done,’ and you have to be aware of that.”
DevilsDigest: What are the keys to the game Thursday and who do you see coming away with the victory?
Matt Moreno: “It’s going to be an interesting one for sure. I think for Arizona, it's going to be about defense. Sean Miller has really harped on that. They did a good job against Oregon State. You're going to have to keep ASU off the three-point line and make sure that they don't get hot shooting here because that has been an issue at times for Arizona. As I said, the interior defense is something they're going to have to be aware of. It's been an issue at points, especially when they've lost games this year. When they lost to Stanford, it was an issue with Oscar Da Silva. They moved Christian Koloko back into the starting lineup; he's their seven-footer, defensive specialist, someone who could change shots at the basket. But I think defensively is where he’s really going to have to step things up and make sure that he can keep players away from the basket, alter shots at the basket, block shots, and keep ASU honest inside the paint.
“Arizona knows that they can score, and I don't think that's as big of a concern for them right now. For this game, it’s making sure that they can contain ASU’s offense and then work things from there because they have enough confidence in their own offense that they can score enough points even when players are having off nights, and they've shown that they can win games if that's the case. But, without Jemarl Baker, that offense takes a, and they do lose something there.
“I think it's always going to be a close game, and it does bring the best out of both teams. I see it maybe being 67-63 Arizona.”
(Jesse Morrison contributed to this article)
