At this point, Bobby Hurley is making no definitives. His preseason predictions and assumptions have been as accurate as a Magic 8 Ball -- and he’s just as baffled as everyone else.
For one, he’s had to deal with unexpected absences. Romello White and Taeshon Cherry were suspended for the China opener. Guard Alonzo Verge missed the Devils’ three-game, East-Coast road trip with a wrist injury. In nearly every game, Hurley’s been without a key piece.
On Monday, he said he expects to have his full arsenal for Tuesday’s road game at San Francisco (A make-up game after Northern California fires canceled last year’s game). Then he paused. That was too conclusive.
“We still have some hoops to jump through,” he joked. “We still have to go through airport security and get to San Francisco … A lot could happen in 36 hours until the game.”
Indeed. And in six games this year, a lot has happened for ASU. The Devils lost to Colorado in China, nearly took down Virginia then needed a last-second shot to beat Princeton. Overall, they’ve been good -- just not in the way Hurley expected.
He figured his 2019-2020 group would be reliant on its offense. Remy Martin would take the next step as one of the Pac-12’s best point guards (He was correct on that one). Rob Edwards and Cherry would be deadly 3-point weapons. White would prove to be a consistent, versatile presence down low.
Instead, ASU has won games because of its defense.
“And I thought it would be the other way around, so that’s how much I know,” Hurley quipped.
The Sun Devils are just inside the Top 100 in opposing field goal percentage (39.5 percent). They rank 42nd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just under 70 points a game. They force over 18 turnovers (27th in the country) and tally almost 10 steals a game (T-23 in the nation).
In KenPom’s adjusted defense statistic, ASU ranks 62nd -- it finished 64th last season and 123rd two years ago. Concurrently, in adjusted offense, the Sun Devils rank 79th -- they finished 73rd last season and 18th in 2017-2018.
Plot those points on a graph and it would become an ‘X,’ ASU’s defense trending upward, it’s offense simultaneously falling.
“I just think overall, our offense has to improve,” Hurley said. “We can’t continue to rely on our defense. We have some great numbers nationally in some very important defensive categories that have given us a chance early, but our offense has struggled.
“We’re shooting 42 percent from the field right now, and we’re in the low-30s from 3. And those are not anywhere near the type of numbers I thought we’d have right now.”
Because of the personnel at his disposal, Hurley expects ASU to play fast. The Sun Devils are at their best when they press opposing point guards for 94 feet, when they consistently pressure the ball and when they can operate a transition offense.
Problem is, every team wants to slow them down.
That’s why Hurley seemed so content with ASU’s recent road trip, knowing matchups with Virginia and Princeton will pay dividends down the road. Especially Virginia, because, well, it slows everyone down.
The defending national champions top the country in nearly every defensive category. Their stalled pace garners as much collective infuriation as lines at the DMV. Unsurprisingly, others across the country are trying to replicate the Cavaliers’ style. ASU, however, is going in the exact opposite direction.
“I liked that we were able to do what we do well. We were able to pressure them some and just force them to have to deal with that through the whole game,” Hurley said of the Virginia game.
“And again, they still would not shoot quick, so they did drag your possessions on defense. And I thought we again, we held up pretty well against a really good opponent.”
At least in the two previous seasons, ASU’s kryptonite was evident. Two seasons ago, ASU navigated an opposing 2-3 zone with about as much success as most trying to solve a crossword puzzle -- there are some small victories but a whole lot of blanks. Last year, it was clear Arizona State’s main deficiencies were free-throw shooting and rebounding.
And game after game, as you would expect, teams went at the Sun Devils’ weaknesses. This season, expect opponents to try and counter ASU’s pace.
Perhaps the only difference between this season and the previous two is the date in which the Devils’ shortcomings have been really tested. In 2017, ASU ran through its non-conference slate rarely seeing a zone look. Last year, ASU wasn’t initially bullied down low like it was in Pac-12 play.
“There’s going to be teams that are going to try and slow us down, and they’re going to play disciplined and shoot late in the clock. And we got to figure out if we can play that style,” Hurley said.
“So that was good for me to see because I know what our potential is in a free-flowing, open-court game. I think that’s our best scenario. But we, I thought, accounted pretty well for ourselves in those other games, even though it was a more deliberate pace.”
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