Arizona State cannot afford to get too comfortable as it gears up for the season opener on Thursday against Northern Arizona.
Last year, NAU closed out a 21-19 upset over Arizona in Tucson. The Wildcats started the game hot but grew overconfident and lost their footing as the matchup surged into its final hours, an aspect that the visitors from Flagstaff took full advantage of. The Sun Devils will ensure that the same result is not repeated on their home turf this week.
The Rundown
The Lumberjacks and head coach Chris Ball are fresh off a 5-6 season, highlighted by Arizona’s collapse in Week 3. In this segment, we will take a look at a few plays that contributed to that surprising result.
The moment that changed the game was a pick-six toward the end of the first half. It was the drive's first play, and the Wildcats were trying to drive for points. Quarterback Will Plummer saw the linebacker scrambling into coverage with his head turned away from the throw and thought he had an easy completion to his left slot target on a flat out. Instead, it opened Pandora’s Box.
Luckily for ASU, this coverage is something the team is well-accustomed to. It’s base defense and Cover-2. All three linebackers having coverage dropback responsibilities, and both safeties having firm reads on the quarterback.
Even though ASU is expected to blitz more this season, this defensive philosophy remains its wetting stone. The offense still practices a ton against it. Kyle Soelle and Merlin Robertson both had interceptions last season where they read the eyes of the quarterback and stepped in front of throws. Emory Jones will have a ton of reps under his belt where linebackers are covering his arsenal of targets and won’t fall victim to overlooking the lurking defender.
Plummer actually would have been better off throwing to his bigger tight end, who runs an identical route and has a shorter throw distance from passer to target. In addition, Messiah Swinson would be a much more physically imposing threat than Arizona’s product. Emory Jones should feel comfortable enough in his progression to realize the comfortable dump-off throws to his Redwood tree of a tight end are a safer and more reliable option than opposite hash tosses that have more hangtime and undercut potential.
Things went from bad to worse in the third quarter when Arizona was straight outmuscled in the red zone on a critical 3rd-and-1 opportunity. The Lumberjacks put their tight end in at H-back, substituted a receiver for an extra offensive lineman, and pulled the left tackle to strengthen the convoy to the right side.
The blocks fell into place: the right edge rusher gets too far upfield while his fellow 3-technique gets rotated out of the play. The one linebacker who had a chance to fill the wide-open gap got stood up by the H-back, acting as the point man. To top it all off, both safeties took poor tackling angles and failed to save the touchdown. This gave NAU a one-point lead.
Despite their opponent having the advantage, Arizona remained arrogant. The Wildcats tried a misdirection bootleg that saw Plummer roll to his right with no blockers in front to search for a completion. With nobody open, Plummer held onto the ball for as long as possible.
Plummer ended up whipping the ball downfield a half-second before he was clocked by the linebacker in pursuit. The pressure from the defender, combined with the extra torque required to deliver an accurate missile, caused the ball to flutter off its release. It took longer to get to the target than it should have, and NAU’s defensive back made an easy interception.
Zak Hill tried a similar play design with Jayden Daniels against Oregon State last season. The same problem emerged – there were simply too many defenders in the field of play, which becomes essentially sliced in half. Glenn Thomas does not give off the vibe of an ambitious coordinator. If Jones is running at all outside the pocket on Thursday, it will only be on designed runs or when scrambling to buy time for the play structure to develop.
Finally, here is the touchdown that ultimately gave NAU the win. It’s another H-back look but in 21 personnel this time around. Due to the heavy presence upfront and the fact that they were gashed by the run the last time the Lumberjacks strolled within scoring distance, Arizona’s linebackers flood toward the line. Their movement creates natural space for the crossing receiver to navigate.
It’s almost too easy for NAU: the press cornerback is late on his press strike and doesn’t reroute effectively. The middle linebacker has poor coverage depth and loses track of exactly how vertical the receiver is behind him. Finally, the safety is too late on the sprint across the end zone to even have a chance at disrupting the throw.
Offense Spotlight: RB Kevin Daniels
Daniels had 27 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown against Arizona. He continued to parley his success in the upset win to a strong season. Daniels finished with 1,164 yards and seven touchdowns at an impressive 6.3 yards per clip. He’s a strong, powerful runner whose short area burst and lateral agility stand out on tape.
On this touchdown romp against Cal Poly, Daniels gets to the second level off strong blocking by the NAU offensive line. However, he is able to set up his run with a swift plant to change directions. He takes out two converging defenders with the move and then does a great job angling away from the rest of the defense with his speed.
When he has a crease, it’s scary hours for the defense trying to tackle a 6-2, 225 running back in space. Daniels is able to generate a ton of acceleration through the handoff and zooms through the middle of the linebackers with ease. He is able to step through tackles with ease and navigate through traffic without much loss of momentum. Making the trenches competitive is a must to stop Daniels from taking off.
Defense Spotlight: DB Morgan Vest
Vest pops out when scouting the box score. The NAU defense had 12 interceptions last season, and Vest had five of them. He’s an opportunistic and athletic safety who puts himself in great positions to make plays on the ball.
On this deep play versus Montana, Vest patrols his half of the secondary and picks up the long post route. He trails the receiver’s inside hip and lunges across the catch point, showcasing a solid sense of timing and confidence in his abilities. He can really be a quarterback heartbreaker if the rhythm in the offense is off.
Bottom Line
This should be a comfortable win for the Sun Devils. A strong ground game presence can exhaust the Lumberjacks, which should lend itself to a few explosive plays through the air and give Emory Jones and the passing attack a foundation to build off for Oklahoma State the next week. A dominant win from a scoreboard perspective would be great. However, a strong showing from the receiving corps that displays a solid, real-time execution of the playbook would be even more fantastic.
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