There have been plenty of signs that the Trojans who won just 13 games in the last two years were poised to dominate the Pac-12 in 2020. COVID-19 though may have chilled that optimism, but does the future still look bright? TrojanSports.com Publisher Ryan Young discusses the implications the Pac-12’s season delay may have on the program.
DevilsDigest: What are your thoughts on the Pac-12’s resolution?
Ryan Young: “I’m surprised that the reaction has been, at least from fans and the subscribers we hear from, so one-sided against it. There really doesn’t seem to be much understanding of the factors that went into it. Certainly, when it happened, I thought that it was only a matter of time before the SEC, Big-12, and ACC followed suit. But given the way they’re marching on without hesitation, I’m starting to question that. I wonder if we really are going to have this crazy divide in college football, and that makes you consider the ramifications.
“It’s not for me to say what the right decision or wrong decision was. I wasn’t in those meetings with medical experts. I know the message that’s been put out there, but I’m not privy to all the minutiae data that went into it. So, I try to stay in the middle of that. But, if those leagues go forward and play and get through a season, then it’s just going to really amplify the angst and frustration about this. And if they don’t, then I think the Pac-12 and Big Ten come out looking prudent and prioritized in the well-being of their student-athletes.
“Either way, there’s going to be some kind of ‘I told you so’ reckoning at the end, and it’s just a very fascinating time for college football just in terms of the response that I get from our subscribers and our community, which is mostly frustration.”
DevilsDigest: How does this decision impact USC football in specific?
Ryan Young: “I think it really does. I think for the first time in several years, there was tangible momentum and reasons that this season could be a turning point. I’ll just quickly enumerate a few of those. Obviously, last year the recruiting class for USC finished tied for 65th nationally. But they had totally rendered that as an outlier and turned everything around. They’ve been in the top-five of the rankings for most of the last few months. There are no. 7 now, and they’ve been as high as no. 3. And there was a nice stretch there in the early spring where it seemed like every week, they were getting another big commitment.
“They jumped out to 18 commitments and have a lot of staff connections in Texas, a D-Line coach from the East Coast. They put a lot of emphasis into out-of-state prospects. And that gets really cloudy now as it’s becoming clearer and clearer that there will not be on-campus recruiting visits for a while. And now you have to wait and see if all this great rejuvenation on the recruiting trail is going to be done by some of those out-of-state prospects that can’t get here to even visit. So that’s one factor.
“Two, their new administration. AD Mike Bohn and his deputy Brandon Sosna have really committed to increasing resources for to the program, and more than doubling the recruiting staff from about five to effectively 11 people. There are still positions there that were earmarked and have not yet been filled. And that’s all kind of put in flux with the financial implications of all this.
“And finally, on the field, there weren’t many questions about this USC team at any spot. A couple of questions on the offensive line and maybe some questions at linebacker. Otherwise, fans here felt really good about every other spot, and they were really equipped to at least talent-wise compete. Obviously, the fan sentiment for (head coach) Clay Helton has not really turned, so it’s not that there was no overwhelming belief that he was going to take them to the promised land this year. But if you evaluated the roster, you would say, well, the pieces are really in place. We’ve already seen Jay Tufele, their first-team all-Pac-12 defensive tackle, announced that he’s not going to wait around for a spring season. He’s ready for the NFL. That’s the first domino. You wonder about a guy like (wide receivers) Amon-Ra St. Brown or Tyler Vaughns. You can go right down the list and slowly see these pieces fall away.
“It just felt like everything was coming together and that this could be a year where USC football gets back on the trajectory everyone hopes it’s going to be on. And now you can point to several factors that are offshoots of this decision that make you question that.”
DevilsDigest: What were you some of the storylines you were looking forward to covering in 2020?
Ryan Young: “The complete overhaul of the defensive staff that had brought so much energy and excitement into the team, with Todd Orlando coming in as the new defensive coordinator and changing up that entire staff. We saw last season with the overhaul on the offensive side that they improved dramatically there and that was really the difference and then going from 5-7 to 8-5 and there was fair reason to think all of the defensive changes can have the same impact.
“Would that (the defense) be what boosts USC’s record from 8-5 to 10-2 or 11-1? Obviously, we’re going to see that eventually whenever they play again. But I think just going back to spring practice that there was so much buzz about what that was going to look like and manifest in spring. But we didn’t get to see it, and now we’re not going to get to see it this fall. I don’t know that that is irreplaceable. I think when they play, we’ll still be able to reclaim that part of the narrative and see what happens there. But that was what I was most looking forward to this fall, and then now it’s on hold again.”
DevilsDigest: How do you think this decision affects their 2021 and 2022 recruiting classes?
Ryan Young: “Well, again, if you run down their coaching staff, there’s four or five guys with strong Texas ties. Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, running backs coach Mike Jinks, tight ends coach John David Baker, top analyst Seth Doege. And so all those guys spent years and really decades in Texas and they really lean on those connections they have there, which is great. We saw some payoff when they got four-star running back Brandon Campbell, four-star wide receiver Quay Davis to commit, Lake McRee, a tight end from Austin to commit. If they can’t keep those guys on campus, you’re not going to win recruiting battles. And looking at USC’s 2021 targets, when they jumped out to 15, 16, 17, 18 commits and looked at the remaining needs and the remaining targets, a lot of them were not local guys. And slowly all those non-local guys have kind of melted off and just aren’t viable anymore because they’re not going to be able to get them here. There’s maybe a couple of non-local guys that you’re still going for and hope to convince. But it’s really undermined because they are pretty well set up to have a chance at these guys that they already put a lot of time into.
“With the 2022 class, I think it’s still too early to know the impact because if things get back on track with visits, I think that it can all be reclaimed. But the 2021 class, I think they had the chance to have an exceptional recruiting class, and it likely still finishes as a very good class, probably top-10. I just think it’s too early to talk about the 2022 class. If we will have visits in five months, then I don’t think that really undermines 2022 pursuits that much, so you got to wait and see on that. They can certainly adjust their approach if they feel it’s going to be really hard to get guys from that class on the other side of the country or get guys from Texas. They can adjust their emphasis even more locally if need be, so I think the concern was really just with the 2021 guys right now.”
DevilsDigest: Do you think the other three Power 5 conferences can complete their seasons in the fall?
Ryan Young: “Personally, I have been pessimistic about this for a while. So, when the Pac-12 and Big Ten made the move, I wasn’t surprised. I was surprised by the sudden shift from ‘hey, we just released schedules to now we’re shutting things down.’ That was a surprise to me. But I thought all along this was going to be a long shot at getting a season played, and I still feel that way about those other leagues.
“I guess maybe it’s more likely that they’ll get to the starting line. But will they get to the finish line? I have a lot of doubts, especially when we’re seeing how many of those schools have brought students back to campus and already having adverse results from that. And that to me, makes it so much harder to get through the football season because every college football conference leader says it’s not realistic to have a bubble in college football. But you kind of have one if students aren’t back on campus for classes (and learning remotely). But once you’re bringing 30,000 students back to your campus, then you can’t have a bubble. No matter what protocols you have for your players, they’re now part of a much larger population base that you can’t control. And I just think that’s going to really be a major obstacle for those conferences.
“I try and stay in the middle on the decision and not say it was a good decision, or it was a bad decision. I wasn’t in those meetings. I wasn’t in those rooms. I understand the reasons that have been put forth as to why the Pac-12, the Big Ten got to this place. I understand that even though they didn’t emphasize liability and, in fact, they try to downplay liability, that the liability is the paramount concern. Having two leagues make this decision and be out in front and say ‘we’re going to put the health and safety of our student-athletes first’ only increases the liability exposure on the other conferences. If things go in a worst-case scenario and there are lawsuits and everything else, they can point to ‘well, your peers saw this as a risk and took action. You didn’t.’ I think that puts those three leagues in a tough position. And probably they might be frustrated with the Pac-12 and Big Ten being so out in front with this.
“But to answer your question, I’m not rooting for anything. I’m not rooting for this to all prove to be overblown or that it’s not a major risk, and we can eventually get back to the normal business of college football and that those leagues can get through the fall without issue. That’s great. It’s not great for the Pac-12 and Big Ten, but it’s great for college football as a whole and for getting things back on track in the future. I just remain pessimistic that that’s going to happen.”
DevilsDigest: How confident are you that the Pac-12 season can be played in the spring of 2021?
Ryan Young: “I initially had the question of what’s going to be different in a few months. But then the more I talked to people who are plugged into the process, the more I kind of saw why there is optimism and I think it stems largely from the expectation for much advanced testing capabilities and having rapid response testing where they could conceivably test every player and get results in 10 to 15 minutes and they can do that as often as they want.
“And then as the price point and cost will go down and what that allows you to do is instead of testing everyone withing 72 hours of the game, they can say, ‘no, we can test everyone the morning of the game.’ We’ll get immediate results, and if anyone is positive, we’ll immediately remove them. So, we know that going into kickoff, we have a high degree of confidence that nobody’s positive, and we can directly control the spread and not have to rely on some complex contact to see who might have been exposed.
“So, once I learned about the expectation that testing measures are going to be so different in a matter of months, that restored some optimism for me that a spring season might be viable. Then obviously, you have to answer the question about playing two seasons in one calendar year. I think if they start early enough, they can get the season going in January, some postseason in April; then I think it’s possible. But that would be the biggest question that I still don’t have enough direct intelligence on to say that a college athlete can recover in those four months between both seasons. I’d have to learn more about that, but I do still maintain optimism for a spring season based on the expectations for testing upgrades.”
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Jesse Morrison contributed to this article
