Another year, another proverbial white-knuckle Selection Sunday awaits the Sun Devils. Last season ASU backed into the NCAA tournament losers of five of their last six games and was able to squeeze into the field of 68 despite finishing ninth in the Pac-12. This year ASU has won three of their last five contests following a second-place league finish, yet the feeling this morning isn’t a whole lot different.

The prevailing notion this morning among the bracket prognosticators is that Arizona State will make a return trip to Dayton, Ohio as the last Four In team, with the only question is whether they will play on Tuesday or Wednesday?

Let’s first look at the numbers that are expected to guide to committee members, ahead of the selection show which will air on CBS 3 pm PT (same as Arizona time):

NET: no. 63

KenPom: no. 61

Sagarin: no. 52

BPI: no. 6o

KPI: no. 34

Strength of Record: no. 55

Strength of Schedule: no. 75

Even though the SEC, AAC and Big Ten championship games will be played prior to the announcement of the field of 68, the results of that contest aren’t expected to change much of those ASU numbers, if at all.

Therefore, looking at these figures it’s would hard to see why and how ASU would miss a back to back trip to the NCAA tournament, a rare achievement for this program who last recorded this feat in the 1979-80 and 1980-81 seasons.

The Bracketmatrix website has ASU in just 98 of the 120 bracket projections they track but also have ASU fourth to last on the no. 11 seed line, another indicator that they should hear their name called this afternoon.

Myself and others believe that the first-year quadrant game system instituted by the NCAA this year to serve as a foundation for each team’s NCAA tournament résumé is one that should have ASU safely into the NCAA tournament and not playing an extra game this week.

Here is how the Sun Devils fare in this aspect:

Quadrant 1 (Home Games vs. RPI Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Away vs. 1-75)

Record: 3-3

Quadrant 2 (Home vs. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Away vs. 76-135)

Record: 8-3

Quadrant 3 (Home vs. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240)

Record: 5-2

Quadrant 4 Home vs. 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 240+)

Record: 6-2

The quadrant 1 and 2 win-loss record of ASU versus last four teams that seemingly are ahead of them and who will skip that midweek trip to Dayton is as follows:

ASU 11-5

VCU 5-5

Oklahoma 10-12

Florida 8-12

Ohio State 9-13

Did ASU get punished, if you will, for an extremely weak Pac-12 showing out of conference? Absolutely and there’s no way to overstate that fact, nor the fact that losing to bid stealer Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals only enhanced the anxiety level in Tempe.

So, assuming that ASU will play in familiar surroundings in March, what appears to be the likely setup for this?

The Sun Devils could face St. John's on Tuesday or Wednesday in a battle of 11 seeds. This Red Storm team is erringly similar to the 2017-18 ASU squad, backing into the NCAA tournament having lost four of their last five. Both teams last played each other on December 8, 2017, in the Hall of Fame Classic in Los Angeles where ASU prevailed 82-70.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Sun Devils projected in the South region with the winner of the Sun Devils and Red Storm contest on Wednesday advancing to face no. 6 Maryland in Tulsa on Friday.

If this indeed is ASU’s fate, then the Sun Devils will be the first squad to qualify as a Last Four In in consecutive years.

Now, ten of those brackets in the aforementioned 120 bracket projections, including Andy Katz’s on NCAA.com (which is NOT reflective of the committee’s thinking, etc.) have ASU as a no. 10 seed, clearly putting more emphasis on the quadrant 1 and 2 win-loss record rather than overall conference performance of ASU’s foes.

Presumably, that would be a shocking result, to say the least, and borderline in the “don’t get your hopes up” category.

Then again, did we mention that Selection Sunday falls on St. Patrick’s day? If there’s any day to enjoy some good luck…

In my opinion, ASU is locked into a no. 11 seed with the only question on whether it’s qualifying as a Last Four In team or being placed directly into one of two regions that will have a “traditional” no. 6 versus no. 11 matchup.

I believe the Sun Devils will reacquaint themselves with this Ohio town.