Colorado who beat Top-25 Nebraska two weeks ago, experienced a letdown last Saturday suffering a surprise loss to Air Force. Can the Buffaloes cross to the other side of the fence and now act as the spoilers traveling to no. 24 ASU? Here's our thorough examination of the Sun Devils' upcoming opponent.
Colorado Offense
You know those college football players that seem to be cut from a Van Wilder type of mold and have been at their schools for what seems like a decade? Steven Montez falls under that category for me.
A fifth-year senior in 2019, Montez redshirted in 2015 and was thrust into significant action with three starts in place of the injured Sefo Liufao during the 2016 season that ultimately resulted in Colorado claiming the Pac-12 South title.
The past two seasons, Montez has started all 24 games but has not guided Colorado to a postseason bowl game – undoubtedly a college bucket list item for his final season with the Buffaloes.
Montez brings size (6-5, 230), experience (30 career starts entering Saturday) and above average mobility (813 career net rush yards) along with a talented stable of veteran receivers to the field and though he hasn’t often been mentioned among the league’s elite quarterbacks during his tenure in Boulder, he has the tools to make any defense pay.
Among active FBS players, Montez currently ranks seventh in career passing yards among (7,729) and is within range of overtaking his predecessor Sefo Liufao as Colorado’s all-time passing leader by the end of the season.
On the year, he has thrown for 827 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions with six net rush yards on 15 carries. Entering the season, Montez had more than 800 career net rush yards, so his lack of production on the ground so far is at least a little bit puzzling.
To start the season, Montez completed 13-of-20 passes (65.0%) for 232 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against Colorado State, then completed 28-of-41 passes (68.3%) for 375 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against Nebraska and most recently completed 26-of-43 passes (60.5%) for 220 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against Air Force.
Montez rushed for a net of 39 yards against Colorado State in the opener and was not sacked that game, but in the two games since he was sacked three times against Nebraska and finished with -17 rush yards and last week was sacked twice against Air Force and ended with -16 net rush yards.
In all, Montez has 11 career games with at least 300 passing yards and the 375 he tallied against Nebraska two weeks ago fell one yard short of matching his career-high.
In place of departed 1,000-yard rusher Travon McMillian, Colorado is essentially using a two-man attack with Alex Fontenot and Jaren Mangham.
Through three games, Fontenot has received the greater share of touches, having totaled 42 carries for 209 yards with three touchdowns, though his numbers are skewed by an incredible effort in the season opener.
After carrying just 11 times in 12 games as a redshirt freshman last year, Fontenot exploded with 125 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 19 carries against Colorado State, then as a very ASU friendly total of 42 rush yards in each of the past two games on 10 carries against Nebraska and 13 carries versus Air Force. He has not scored a touchdown since week one.
One of the prize jewels of Colorado’s 2019 signing class as one of only two four-star signees for the Buffaloes, Detroit native Mangham, the No. 14 running back according to Rivals, selected Colorado over offers from historically prominent programs such as Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Oregon, Texas, Texas A&M and several others.
Mangham brings excellent size (6-2, 215) and has shown flashes of future brilliance as he has 140 yards on 32 carries with three touchdowns. His contributions have been consistent each game, as he has two games with 11 carries and one game with 10, while he has increased his rushing yardage each week starting with 40 yards week one, 44 in week two and 56 last week.
In the passing game, Montez has a trio of tenured, talented receiving targets at his disposal this season in the form of All-America candidate Laviska Shenault along with speedster K.D. Nixon and steady receiver Tony Brown.
Last season, Shenault exploded as one of the most dynamic and dominant receivers at the FBS level as in only nine games he caught 86 passes for 1,011 yards with six touchdowns and rushed 17 times for 115 and five scores. The diverse way in which Shenault is used is additionally impressive considering his size (6-2, 220).
In 2018, Shenault had five games with at least 10 receptions, each of which resulted in at least 100 receiving yards. He had a season-high 13 catches against ASU and posted a season-best 211 receiving yards in the 2018 season opener against Colorado State.
Sun Devil fans know all too well how talented Shenault is, as in addition to those career-high 13 receptions, he accounted for all four touchdowns scored by Colorado last year (two receiving, two rushing) in the 28-21 win by the Buffaloes over ASU in Boulder.
Despite the three games missed due to injury, he was named a First-Team All-Pac-10 selection at wide receiver along with ASU’s N’Keal Harry and entered the 2019 season with All-America and eventual NFL Draft first-round expectations.
Shenault brings 16 receptions for 203 yards and two touchdowns to Saturday’s game along with nine carries for 66 yards and a touchdown on the ground. His offensive touches have increased over the three games, starting with six total touches against Colorado State (three receptions, three rushes), eight against Nebraska (five receptions, three rushes) and 11 against Air Force (eight receptions, three rushes). Though Colorado dropped its first loss of the year, Shenault enters Saturday on the heels of his best game of the season so far as he had 124 receiving yards on eight receptions with two total touchdowns (one receiving, one rushing).
The deep speed, big play threat of the Colorado offense, Nixon so far has 197 receiving yards on 11 catches with a touchdown with nearly half his yards coming on one record breaking play.
Nixon ranks second in the Pac-12 behind ASU’s Brandon Aiyuk in yards per catch, averaging 17.9 yards on his 11 receptions. That average is tilted mightily by Nixon’s 96-yard flea flicker catch and run for a touchdown against Nebraska, the longest pass play in Colorado history and the longest such play at the FBS level thus far in 2019.
Brown has provided a reliable presence to complement Shenault’s all-world talent and Nixon’s longball capabilities as he has totaled at least 60 receiving yards in each of the past two games. Overall, Brown has posted 10 receptions for 151 yards with one touchdown.
A position of potential concern for the Sun Devil defense is Colorado’s tight ends, especially Brady Russell and Auburn grad transfer Jalen Harris. Russell and Harris have combined for 13 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown in three games at a position that at times has given the Arizona State defense fits.
As it has in each of the first three games of the 2019 season, the Buffalo line figures to start tackle Arlington Hambright, an Oklahoma State grad transfer, at left tackle, Kary Kutsch at left guard, Tim Lynott at center, Colby Pursell at right guard and William Sherman at right tackle.
Lynott brought 33 career starts into the 2019 season while Sherman was an Honorable Mention All-Pac-10 selection as a freshman in 2018. Kutsch is the only true first-year starter of the group.
Colorado Offense Summary
Though not an out-of-this-world quarterback, Montez is talented and experienced and has enough tools around him to make a multitude of dynamic offensive plays.
By far, Shenault is the most talented player on the entire Colorado roster and his productivity have ramped up each week as the Buffaloes now begin their Pac-12 schedule. He is one of few non-quarterbacks in the league that has the athletic ceiling to take over a game, evidenced last year when he almost single-handedly claimed a Buffalo victory over Arizona State.
The Buffaloes this week, of course, face a Sun Devil defense that currently ranks second nationally in points allowed (21) with nothing permitted in the first three quarters of each game this year. That said, Colorado represents the most skilled offense ASU will have faced through the first four games of 2019, so we will see if the Sun Devils can remain as potent defensively this weekend as they have in games one through three.
Colorado Defense
(Note: Several defensive statistics listed in Colorado’s game notes conflict with those listed by the Pac-12 Conference and NCAA)
Colorado’s 3-4 base defense figures to start potential all-conference end Mustafa Johnson opposite Terrance Lang with Jalen Sami at nose tackle. This trio has served as the starting defensive line for all three games thus far in 2019 for Colorado.
One of the more underrated defensive linemen on a national scale, Johnson ranks fourth among eligible active FBS players (minimum 15 career games played) in career tackles for loss per game (1.23 per game) and career sacks per game (0.70). A junior college transfer prior to the 2018 season that came to Boulder with three years of playing eligibility, Johnson has 10.5 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss in 15 career games.
This year, according to the Pac-12, Johnson has 12 tackles including three sacks – all three notched against Nebraska – though Colorado’s team statistics credit him with 17 total tackles. He also has a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
According to Colorado’s statistics, Lang has 11 tackles with a sack, while Sami has three tackles. The Pac-12 credits Lang with eight tackles including the sack.
At inside linebacker, Nate Landman is one of the league’s most productive defenders and is joined at the position by Jonathan Van Diest with Alex Tchangam at outside linebacker and Davion Taylor at the “Star Back” safety/linebacker hybrid. Landman and Van Diest have started all three games with Tchangam and Taylor having started the past two.
As told by the Pac-12 Conference and NCAA, Landman has 34 total tackles, the third-highest overall total so far at the FBS level and 11th nationally in per-game average (second in the Pac-12). Colorado lists Landman as having totaled 40 tackles.
Like Johnson at defensive end, Landman was an Honorable Mention All-Pac-12 pick in 2018.
According to Colorado’s statistics, Taylor has 17 tackles, Van Diest has 12 and Tchangam has 11 including two sacks (both sacks claimed against Nebraska). The Pac-12 lists Taylor as having posted 15 total tackles, Van Diest with nine and Tchangam with six.
In the secondary, cornerbacks Chris Miller and Delrick Abrams, Jr. are joined by free safety Mikail Onu and strong safety Derrion Rakestraw starting in place of the injured Aaron Maddox. Abrams has started all three games while Miller made his 2019 starting debut last week. Onu and Maddox started the first three games together, but Maddox is expected to miss several weeks due to injury.
A grad transfer from SMU, the early returns from Onu are All-Pac-12 caliber stuff, as he ties for the national lead with three interceptions and ties for second nationally with two forced fumbles. In 36 games at SMU, Onu notched just three total interceptions.
The Pac-12 Conference lists Onu as having collected 20 total tackles, tied for 14th in the league. Colorado credits Onu with 22 tackles but agrees on his three interceptions.
The loss of Maddox, injured last week against Air Force, is substantial, as he is tied for 10th in the Pac-12 with 22 total tackles and ties for second nationally with two forced fumbles. Both Colorado and the conference agree on those numbers.
According to Colorado’s statistics, Abrams has 18 tackles and Miller has six with an interception (totals undisputed by the Pac-12), while Rakestraw has three tackles. Oddly, in this case, Colorado has sold Abrams short as the Pac-12 lists him as having collected 20 total tackles.
Colorado Defense Summary
Though Colorado has enjoyed standout individual efforts from the likes of Landman, Johnson, Onu and Maddox, the unit as a whole statistically struggles and ranks among the poorer Power Five programs in several key defensive categories.
Through three games, Colorado ranks 11th in the Pac-12 in total defense (471.0 yards per game) and rush defense (198.0), ninth in pass defense (273.0) and scoring defense (30.7)
Nationally, Colorado ranks 117th in total defense and 112th in rush defense, both fifth worst among Power Five teams.
Colorado has been opportunistic in that it ranks second nationally and ties for the conference lead with 10 defensive takeaways (four interceptions, six fumble recoveries) and the Buffaloes have eight sacks on the year to rank third in the Pac-12 so far with six coming against Nebraska.
Strategically for ASU, this appears to be a very good opportunity for Eno Benjamin to have the biggest ground game of the 2019 season and help boost the continuity and confidence of the revamped Sun Devil offensive line.
Despite some of Colorado’s statistical shortcomings, Jayden Daniels and the Sun Devils should not tempt fate too much – or at least not in a haphazard fashion – as the Buffaloes force turnovers at a rate only bested so far this year by one team at the FBS level.
Colorado Special Teams
The elder statesman of the Colorado roster – literally, dude is 32 years old – kicker James Stefanou is a perfect 4-for-4 this year with a long field goal of 41 yards.
Fans may be treated to a punting showdown on Saturday, as Colorado’s Alex Kinney averages 47.6 yards on 14 punts to rank sixth nationally and second in the Pac-12 behind ASU’s Michael Turk.
K.D. Nixon is the primary return man, averaging 5.0 yards on two punt returns and 24.5 yards on two kickoff returns. Laviska Shenault returned one kickoff an impressive 54 yards against Nebraska but lost a fumble on the play.
Overall Summary
Through the first five years of membership to the Pac-12 Conference, Colorado consistently was the league’s doormat as the Buffaloes had a 5-40 combined record in conference play from 2011-2015. After reaching the pinnacle of the division in 2016 by claiming the Pac-12 South title, the Buffaloes regressed to a subpar level by missing the postseason the next year with a 5-7 record and then doing the same in 2018 by losing seven straight after a 5-0 start to end the 2018 season with a 5-7 record.
After the dismissal of Mike MacIntyre, head coach from 2013-17, Mel Tucker, most recently an assistant coach at Georgia and Alabama, was brought in to guide the program. There has been excitement, especially in the 2-0 start including a come-from-behind overtime win over longtime foe Nebraska, but the path to bowl eligibility includes some tough tasks for the Buffaloes.
In the all-time series between the two programs, ASU leads 8-2, with a 6-2 record since Colorado joined the Pac-12 Conference in 2011 (ASU won non-conference games against Colorado in 2006-07).
Though Colorado has claimed back-to-back victories over ASU in Boulder, the Buffaloes have never won in Tempe across five tries with the the closest margin being the 11-point loss suffered at the hands of the Sun Devils in 2017 – a game in which Colorado blew a 10-point lead it held to start the fourth quarter.
ASU’s swagger is undoubtedly riding high after a hard fought Big Ten style victory in Big Ten country, but the Sun Devils, now ranked No. 24 in both major polls, cannot get caught reading their own press clippings and patting themselves on the back as Colorado has the offensive firepower to erase the euphoria of last weekend.
This Saturday will be strength versus strength (Colorado’s offense against ASU’s defense) and weakness versus weakness (Colorado’s defense versus ASU’s offense). If ASU’s defense can remain focused in its execution as it has been for the vast majority of its play so far in 2019 and if the Sun Devil offense – especially on the ground – can show improvement over what is a porous Colorado rush defense, the momentum of the home team very well could continue.
Keys to a Sun Devil Victory
Let Eno Run: Nearly the polar opposite of last week’s opponent, national rush defense leader Michigan State, Colorado has the fifth worst Power Five run defense in the nation through three games. With that, ASU should be able to operate the offensive game plan it has wanted to all year – run Eno Benjamin early, often and effectively. If ASU is able to have better luck on the ground this week than the first three, look for that to open things up elsewhere in the offense and allow ASU to control the tempo of the game.
Don’t Forget the Tight Ends: Laviska Shenault is spectacular, the other Colorado receivers are very talented and the Buffalo running backs have been effective as Fontenot and Mangham have combined for six touchdown runs in three games. However, a key factor Saturday on offense for the visitors could be the tight ends, primarily the pair of Brady Russell and Jalen Harris. Last week, Michigan State tight ends Matt Seybert and Matt Dotson combined for six receptions for 92 yards, showing that tight ends can find holes in the otherwise stout Sun Devils.
No Comfort Zone: A momentous win over a top-20 team on the road can get in the heads of a team such as ASU with quite a bit of youth. That simply cannot happen, especially on defense, as ASU cannot rest on its laurels on that side of the ball with a potent Colorado offense heading to Tempe. Also, Colorado has very much been a second half – more specifically, a fourth quarter – team this year as of the 106 points scored in regulation so far this year by the Buffaloes, 51 have come in the fourth quarter. By comparison, Colorado only averages 11.3 points per game in the first half so far this year. ASU, of course, has not allowed a single point in the first three quarters of all three games, but with Colorado having a high power fourth quarter offense, the Devils cannot be complacent if they enter the fourth quarter with a scoreboard advantage as has been the case all three games thus far.
Familiar Faces
· Colorado TE Jared Poplawski (Scottsdale Saguaro High School) is an Arizona native and was verbally committed to ASU before signing with Colorado
· Colorado DB Aaron Maddox attended Pima Community College in Tucson
· ASU OL Alijah Bates (Colorado Springs Doherty High School) and Spencer Lovell (Fort Collins Rocky Mountain High School) are Colorado natives; Colorado WR Clayton Baca and P Alex Kinney also attended Rocky Mountain High
· Colorado LB Jacob Callier, LS Derek Bedell and DL Na’im Rodman attended Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco High School, as did ASU RB Demetrious Flowers, LB Jacob Jornadal and OL Zach Robertson
· Colorado LB Steele Dubar and WR Braedin Huffman-Dixon attended Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei High School, as did ASU OL Alex Losoya
· Colorado OL Frank Fillip attended Houston (Texas) Clear Lake High School, as did ASU DB Cam Phillips
· Colorado CB Dylan Thomas attended Los Angeles (Calif.) Cathedral High School, as did ASU DL Stephon Wright