Congratulations, Arizona State. You did exactly what you were supposed to.
That sounds belittling, I know. That’s not intentional. But in reality, a combined 28-point sweep of Stanford and California was exactly what this weekend was supposed to be.
And the Sun Devils haven’t exactly been good at doing fulfilling expectations — both high and low — if you haven’t noticed.
So, with that in mind, you won’t be surprised to find ASU right where I left them a week ago in my bracket projections; in my Monday update, the Sun Devils are a No. 11 seed, which they’ve been for about three weeks.
Don’t trust me? The Bracket Matrix agrees.
Hint: You’re going to want to keep that last link open while you read this.
The theme of this week’s breakdown will be to answer the question, why?
ASU’s playing in what was accurately described as the “arid, Quad 1-scarce savanna known as the Pac-12” in ESPN’s Bubble Watch. It’s only 10-5 in that league and 19-8 overall — decent numbers, but not astounding — and recently lost another Quadrant 4 game to Washington State just two weeks ago.
And other than a Feb. 9 win against Washington, the Sun Devils haven’t really done anything to positively move their needle since, like, December.
Shouldn’t the Sun Devils have taken a serious hit by now? How are they still hanging on, not only to an at-large bid but to a bid within the field of 64, as opposed to a play-in game, in the eyes of most, if not all experts?
Those answers are ahead, but first, let’s check back in on the ever-changing team sheet.
ARIZONA STATE (19-8, 10-5 PAC-12)
NET: No. 63 (+5)
KenPom: No. 60 (+2)
Sagarin: No. 47 (--)
BPI: No. 59 (+4)
KPI: No. 38 (+1)
Strength of Record: No. 60 (+3)
Strength of Schedule: No. 84 (-14)
--Woah, ASU’s SOS took a serious hit this week. Yeah, that’ll happen when you play two teams, at home, with an average NET in the low 200’s. That should jump back up, though, with back-to-back-to-back road trips to Top 100 opponents to close the season.
QUADRANT 1 (Home vs. NET 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Away vs. 1-75)
WINS: No. 17 Kansas (H–Dec. 22) — No. 22 Mississippi State (N–Nov. 19) — No. 29 Washington (H–Feb. 9) — No. 33 Utah State (N–Nov. 21)
LOSSES: No. 19 Nevada (N–Dec. 7)
REMAINING GAMES: None
RECORD: 4-1
--Yeah, Oregon barely fell out of the Top 75, so, for now, there’s not a Q1 game left on the schedule. All three remaining teams are within 10 spots of the Top 75, though, so it’s not impossible for one of them to improve to Q1 territory.
QUADRANT 2 (Home vs. NET 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Away vs. 76-135)
WINS: No. 100 Utah (A–Feb. 16) — No. 108 UCLA (A-Jan. 24) — No. 111 Georgia (A–Dec. 15)
LOSSES: No. 77 Colorado (A–Feb. 13) — No. 86 USC (A–Jan. 26) — No. 102 Stanford (A–Jan. 12) — No. 129 Vanderbilt (A–Dec. 17)
REMAINING GAMES (3): No. 76 Oregon (A–Feb. 28) — No. 80 Oregon State (A–Mar. 3) — No. 82 Arizona (A–Mar. 9)
RECORD: 3-4
QUADRANT 3 (Home vs. NET 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240)
WINS: No. 76 Oregon (H–Jan. 19) — No. 77 Colorado (H–Jan. 5) — No. 80 Oregon State (H–Jan. 17) — No. 82 Arizona (Jan. 31) — No. 102 Stanford (H–Feb. 20)
LOSSES: No. 100 Utah (H–Jan. 3)
REMAINING GAMES: None
RECORD: 5-1
QUADRANT 4 (Home vs. NET 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 241+)
WINS: No. 164 Omaha (H–Nov. 28) — No. 171 Cal State Fullerton (Nov. 6) — No. 208 Texas Southern (H–Dec. 1) — No. 246 Long Beach State (H–Jan. 12) — No. 278 California (A–Feb. 24) — No. 325 McNeese (H–Nov. 9)
LOSSES: No. 170 Washington State (H–Feb. 7) — No. 175 Princeton (H–Dec. 29)
REMAINING GAMES: None
RECORD: 7-2
Okay, so let’s talk about this “bubble.”
For starters, this year’s is the perfect bubble for ASU to be on, especially when there are no more possibly detrimental losses left on the schedule.
I know it probably doesn’t feel like, on a week-to-week basis, the Sun Devils are “doing what they need to do” to keep a spot.
But that’s the thing — most of the tournament nods they’re getting, they earned back in December, and no one behind them is really doing much of anything to take that away from them, despite how much of a window ASU has opened up for just that.
I think the Bracket Matrix paints a perfect image of what I’m trying to say.
The latest update of the Matrix includes 118 sample projections. Of the 36 teams who have at-large bids, 23 appear in all 118 brackets. Another five appear in 116 or 117 brackets, and another six appear in at least 100 (84 percent).
You did the math right. There are just two teams in the Matrix’s consensus field of 68 that appear in less than 100 out of 118 brackets, and one of them, Seton Hall appears in 93 (78 percent), which is still a huge majority.
Utah State, the last team in, and Clemson, the first team out, appear in 68 and 61 respectively, and the next best contender, Butler, appears in 29, which is less than a quarter. After that, it’s all single digits.
Starting to see what’s going on here? ASU may be uncomfortably close to the cut-off as an average No. 11 seed and seventh-to-last team in (they’re my fifth-to-last), but no one is really within reasonable striking distance of pulling them all the way out of the field.
Those Bracket Matrix numbers basically mean there are 37 — maybe 38 — real, legitimate contenders, as of today, for 36 at-large spots.
And there are two reasons for that.
First off, a lot of the teams who sit in that outside-looking-in realm have no real chances to drastically improve their résumés, because they’re almost all the second-best teams in mid-major leagues — Davidson, UNC Greensboro, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, Murray State, Toledo, etc. — who really don’t have needle-moving opportunities left.
In theory, they can all make it, sure, but they’ll need help.
That’s the thing, and that’s the second reason. They’re getting that help. They’re getting it from power conference schools like Indiana, Georgetown, Creighton, Nebraska, Oregon State, and South Carolina, all of which simply can’t string wins together.
Yeah, those are the only power conference schools that literally any bracketologist has included that don’t qualify for the Matrix’s field of 68, first four out or next four out categories. That’s it. Those are the teams you’re supposed to be scared of, as an ASU fan.
The bubble is bad. The bubble is really, really bad.
So, that brings us to the weekend ahead — a couple of Quadrant 2 games. Sound familiar?
I think the outlook for this weekend — which features a Thursday game at Oregon and a Saturday game at Oregon State — is pretty simple when it comes to the big picture. Neither of these teams qualifies as a bad loss, neither qualifies as much of a great win, so nothing drastic is going to happen either way.
But you gotta win one. It’s not a do or die, but there would be so much pressure on a trip to Tucson — where ASU notoriously struggles — and a subsequent trip to Vegas — where, in March, ASU struggles even more — if neither of these decently challenging road games turn out as victories.
That’s what it boils down to, and you can look at this as a positive, or a negative, depending on how you feel about this team.
Just look around the country. If the Sun Devils are going to lose their spot in the field, it’s going to be their fault.
