Through nine games, the list of complaints when it comes to Arizona State basketball is a short one. Bobby Hurley’s squad has charged out of the gates, winning eight of its first nine games, including its last six in a row. Its lone blemish? An overtime road loss to Texas Southern in the third week of the season. On Wednesday, Arizona State returns to the lone star state to take on SMU and attempt to win its seventh straight and move to 9-1. Currently, just outside the AP Top 25, a win over the 3-5 Mustangs and a win over a ranked Creighton team should have the Sun Devils ranked.
Hurley and his players haven’t been shy about what makes this team click. He says it’s the chemistry that has been one of the most gratifying things about the hot start. ASU seems to have taken the Bagley adversity in stride and may have even become more deeply bonded because of it. Hurley has said on multiple occasions that this is the closest team he has coached during his time in Tempe. Players are active on social media, boasting their confidence in their group and expressing admiration for teammates after each game. The tangible fruit of this chemistry is apparent on the hardwood as well. ASU’s swarming team defense and stellar ball movement on offense is a welcome sight for fans who have come to expect less than that from Hurley’s teams.
Here’s how the SMU Mustangs stack up against the Sun Devils.
The SMU offense runs through sophomore guard Zhuric Phelps. He’s the Mustangs’ leading scorer, averaging 20 points per game. His three assists and two steals per game are also good for the team lead. Phelps is a well-rounded scorer, but he hasn’t been able to truly find the three-point stroke during the first month of the season. If and when he puts that all together, he’ll be even more of a serious threat. It’s up to ASU perimeter defenders Frankie Collins and Devan Cambridge to ensure that doesn’t happen on Wednesday.
Phelps is complemented on the offensive end by guard Zach Nutail, who is SMU’s second-leading scorer at 13.6 points per game. There’s a steep drop-off between these two, but an even more concerning delta after that. No other Mustang is averaging double figures through the season’s first month. SMU averages 67 points per game, which hovers right around the NCAA average. They’ve logged a win while scoring 55 and a loss while dropping 72. It is safe to say that an identity hasn’t truly been discovered by this group. ASU should look to exploit inefficiencies and a potential lack of confidence on the offensive end. If the passionate, swarming defense of the Sun Devils can make a statement early, it’s unlikely SMU will be able to climb out of that funk.
The defense has been shaky at times for SMU, but the team is capable of putting in 40 strong minutes. They allowed just 47 points in an early season win over Evansville but have allowed 80+ point totals in losing efforts to New Mexico and Texas A&M. If ASU can take care of the ball, they should be able to get to the 70s. SMU hasn’t been able to turn the rock over on defense, which has long reaching effects on its game as a whole. Don’t turn the ball over, and you win your seventh straight.
Why ASU will win
Size, size, and more size. ASU is bigger than SMU, and its athleticism at the four and five should allow the Sun Devils to control the game in the paint. Center Warren Washington could have a career night down low. Freshman center Duke Brennan should be productive in however many minutes Hurley plans on allotting him. SMU hasn’t shot the ball particularly well; if that trend continues, the Mustangs could be in big trouble trying to facilitate an offense in the low post when the ASU defense has excelled in that area.
Depth is firmly on Arizona State’s side in this game. Hurley has reached deep into his bench to find production so far this season. Now, a solid and deep rotation is taking shape. SMU will likely have to lean on its most productive players to log big minutes, while ASU will be able to use fresh legs and be comfortable doing so. A second unit that features Brennan, freshman guard Austin Nunez, and redshirt senior guard Luther Muhamad has been a real strength for Hurley and ASU this season. Look for some of these players to be utilized early and often off the bench.
Why SMU will win
They really shouldn’t. The nine-game sample size is big enough to confidently call ASU the better team in this matchup, even in a true road game. If SMU is to pull off the upset, it will be on the back of Phelps. He is capable of taking over a game with his multidimensional scoring ability, and a nuclear performance from him is the most likely avenue to a victory for the home underdogs.
Road let down? It took a herculean second-half effort for ASU to win its last road game in Boulder. The Devils were thoroughly outplayed in the first half and looked as though they were lifeless as Colorado built a 15-point halftime lead. Needless to say, this model isn’t sustainable to win on the road. If Arizona State comes out flat again against SMU, it won’t be able to bank on a double-digit comeback victory to bail it out.
The game tips off at 7 p.m. MST and can be found on ESPNU and 98.7 on your radio dial.
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