ASU’s NCAA Tournament Resume Analysis

Everything is fine.

Arizona State just got swept in the second-to-last weekend of the season. I get it. I know you’re used to having to dodge pieces of the falling sky as you read statements like that one.

But, again, this year’s different.

First of all, let’s talk about who the Sun Devils were swept by — Southern California and UCLA. Okay, no, these aren’t great opponents, but if ASU had to lose back-to-back games at the tail end of February, it picked the right pair of teams.

The Trojans and Bruins are both contenders for tournament bids and for the Pac-12 title, and are playing their best basketball in recent weeks, especially UCLA.

The reason I mention that last part is to say that both of these teams are trending in the right direction — that is, odds are these losses won’t get much worse. And, on top of it all, these losses came on the road!

Most importantly, though, these are essentially both Quadrant 1 losses. UCLA is currently No. 76 in NET, but with their current trajectory, moving up one measly spot seems pretty likely.

So, again, everything is fine. For now.

We’ll talk more later about that ominous qualifier there; I promise, you’ve got nothing major to worry about if you’re an ASU fan, not yet. But before digging into some of the next steps, here’s a quick look at how the résumé breaks down on paper.

THE BREAKDOWN

Arizona State (19-10, 10-6 Pac-12)

NET: No. 49

KenPom: No. 58

Sagarin: No. 45

BPI: No. 69

KPI: No. 25

Strength of Record: No. 39

Strength of Schedule: No. 12

Quadrant 1 (Home vs. NET Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. 1-50, Away vs. 1-75)

WINS: vs. No. 10 Arizona — vs. No. 28 Stanford — vs. No. 18 Oregon — @ No. 70 Washington — @ No. 72 Oregon State

LOSSES: @ No. 10 Arizona — vs. No. 13 Creighton — No. 22 Colorado — @ No. 18 Oregon — vs. No. 22 Colorado — No. 31 Saint Mary’s — @ No. 39 Southern California — No. 50 Virginia

REMAINING GAMES: None

RECORD: 5-8

--THIS IS IMPORTANT: Don’t let this worry you just yet, but seriously, watch out for Washington and Oregon State. If they fall a few slots and ASU only has three Q1 wins, those less-than-stellar metrics will really start to glare.

Quadrant 2 (Home vs. NET Nos. 31-75, Neutral vs. 51-100, Away vs. 76-135)

WINS: vs. No. 39 Southern California — No. 64 St. John’s — @ No. 97 San Francisco — vs. No. 68 Oregon State

LOSSES: @ No. 114 Washington State — @ No. 76 UCLA

REMAINING GAMES (1): vs. No. 70 Washington (Mar. 5)

RECORD: 4-2

--Seriously, UCLA is right there. That’s basically a Q1 game.

Quadrant 3 (Home vs. NET Nos. 76-160, Neutral vs. 101-200, Away vs. 136-240)

WINS: vs. No. 76 UCLA — vs. No. 83 Georgia — vs. No. 94 Utah — @ No. 138 California — @ No. 154 Princeton LOSSES: None

REMAINING GAMES (1): vs. No. 114 Washington State (Mar. 7)

RECORD: 5-0

Quadrant 4 (Home vs. NET Nos. 161+, Neutral vs. 201+, Away vs. 241+)

WINS: vs. No. 188 Prairie View — vs. No. 190 Rider — vs. No. 236 Louisiana — vs. No. 249 Texas Southern — vs. No. 347 Central Connecticut State

LOSSES: None

REMAINING GAMES: None

RECORD: 5-0

THE CURRENT STATUS

Okay, so last week, I told you ASU was a No. 8 seed — the fourth No. 8 seed, to be specific, good for No. 32 overall in the field — and it was going to take something pretty astronomical to put the Sun Devils in bubble territory. A pair of road losses in Los Angeles is not astronomical, so the resulting drop in bracket standing isn’t either.

Right now, with a little help from a handful of other teams in their general bracket vicinity that lost this weekend as well — quick shoutout to Texas Tech, Florida, Indiana, Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island and Utah State — I’m saying Arizona State is a No. 10 seed.

More specifically, I’ve got the Sun Devils as the best No. 10 seed — so, No. 37 overall, dropping five slots from last week, with nine teams separating them from the cut-off line — theoretically grouped in the bracket with No. 7 Marquette and No. 2 Maryland.

That scenario, because of Dayton holding the highest seed in the group, likely sends the Sun Devils to Cleveland for opening-weekend games. You can check out my full seed list at the bottom of this article.

Similarly to last week’s update, the Sun Devils’ raw results and strength of schedule are quite strong and are what’s keeping them intact where they currently sit.

But goodness, those metrics. Blech. They got even worse this week; NET fell all the way to No. 49 and KenPom to No. 58. That’s not good.

As of last week, I noted that my No. 6, 7 and 8 seeds had an average NET ranking of No. 20 and an average KenPom ranking of No. 21. Those numbers this week are largely the same, and that’s not helping the Sun Devils at all in trying to move up.

But that’s not a cause for concern right now; if anything, it’s just dragging the Sun Devils down from where they could be if they had better efficiency ratings, but you still have to be happy with where they currently stand, especially since those computer rankings alone, realistically, reflect those of a No. 11 seed or worse.

ASU’s NET is actually worse than four of the teams I chose not to include as at-large teams in this week’s field, such as Alabama, Arkansas, and Richmond. To be fair, though, the Sun Devils’ NET is also better than a handful of teams that did make my field, including Virginia, Cincinnati, and Indiana.

Again, for now, it’s the raw results that are ASU’s strong suit; only nine teams in the country have both five-or-more Q1 wins and a Top 20 schedule, and I have six of them seeded No. 5 or higher.

And just for perspective, let’s say ASU didn’t have those Washington and Oregon State wins in Q1 and had the exact same resume as it has now, just with two fewer Q1 wins. The Sun Devils profile, in that case, almost identically to Xavier, which is currently just two spots behind ASU in my overall rankings.

Granted, the Musketeers do have better computer ratings than ASU, so those would, as previously mentioned, start to cast a bit of a darker shadow if those wins were to drop, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Everybody who’s on or near the bubble has some ugly wart on its team sheet. NC State has three Q3 losses. Cincinnati has four. UCLA lost in Q4, and so did Providence. Wichita State and Utah State only have two Q1 wins each. Even moving further into the field, Virginia and Indiana are outside the NET Top 50.

So, ASU isn’t alone in having a few cuts. You’re just going to want to monitor how well the Sun Devils can apply band-aids down the stretch.

THE OUTLOOK

Crystal-clear rifts are beginning to grow between the teams I have seeded 5-7, those I have seeded 8-10, and those I have seeded 11 or worse. ASU’s firmly in the middle group.

I tell you that for two reasons. At this point, it’s going to take a lot for the Sun Devils to break into any seed higher than a No. 8, especially after this week’s losses. It’s also going to take a lot for the Sun Devils to fall into true bubble territory.

A pair of home losses to Washington and Washington State, though? I’d consider that “a lot.”

So many variables play into this kind of thing this late in the season, so here’s what I’ll say — it’s not a definite that going 0-2 this week would knock ASU down to the last-four-in-or-worse territory, but any Sun Devils fan should prefer to not have to find out.

I’m not really expecting the Sun Devils to get swept, and neither should you. If anything, I don’t think anyone’s truly expecting ASU to lose either game this week. Washington and WSU are a combined 18-30.

But you know Arizona State basketball, this is the exact time the Sun Devils would decide to pick up that backbreaking set of ugly home losses that they’ve evaded all season. I don’t say that to scare you; just... don’t count your chickens.

It seems realistic to at least expect a split out of ASU this week. Against these teams, a split probably nets out to a slight drop on the national scale, but not enough of a drop to push the Sun Devils into panic mode yet. In the event of a split, you’re going to want ASU to pick up a quarterfinal win in Vegas just for safe-keeping, but a sweep this week probably seals the deal.

I mean, theoretically — a record of 21-10 against a Top 20 schedule, potentially five wins in Q1, and likely no losses outside the top two quadrants? Yeah, I just don’t see how that’s not a tournament team, in a vacuum.

You can start freaking out if ASU’s still got 19 wins this time a week from now, or if both Washington and Oregon State drop out of the Top 75, leaving the Sun Devils with just three wins in Q1 entering championship week.

But, even if just for today, I promise, everything is still just fine.

FULL SEED LIST

Note: All-Caps denotes a projected league champion; italics denotes a team playing in the “First Four” round in Dayton, Ohio.

1: KANSAS, Baylor, GONZAGA, SAN DIEGO STATE

2: DAYTON, SETON HALL, FLORIDA STATE, MARYLAND

3: Louisville, Creighton, Duke, Villanova

4: KENTUCKY, OREGON, Michigan State, Penn State

5: Auburn, Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa

6: Wisconsin, Brigham Young, Butler, Michigan

7: West Virginia, Arizona, HOUSTON, Marquette

8: Illinois, Louisiana State, Texas Tech, Saint Mary’s

9: Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Oklahoma

10: Arizona State, Providence, Xavier, Southern California

11: Stanford, Rutgers, Wichita State, Utah State, NORTHERN IOWA

12: EAST TENNESSEE STATE, Cincinnati, Texas, LIBERTY, YALE

13: VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS, STEPHEN F. AUSTIN, BELMONT

14: UC IRVNE, COLGATE, HOFSTRA, WRIGHT STATE

15: NEW MEXICO STATE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, LITTLE ROCK, MONTANA

16: BOWLING GREEN, SIENA, RADFORD, SAINT FRANCIS (PA), PRAIRIE VIEW A&M, NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina State, UCLA, Rhode Island, Richmond

NEXT FOUR OUT: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Purdue, Memphis

ALSO CONSIDERED: Saint Louis, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Alabama

A quick note here…

If you’re curious as to why I don’t have UCLA listed as the Pac-12’s auto-bid, I made that decision for a couple of reasons. When there’s a team who I wouldn’t include as an at-large bid that leads its conference by a half-game or less, it often makes the most sense to me to treat that team as a bubble team rather than an automatic bid. This is for two reasons:

For one, Oregon is still the best team in the conference based on computer metrics, popular opinion, and overall resume. Any betting man should be picking the Ducks to win in Vegas as of today, and the lone reason they aren’t tied for first with UCLA is because they’ve played one less game. They still control their destiny, so I’m still treating them as the automatic bid.

Second, it makes sense, at least to me, to treat teams that would otherwise be considered bubble teams without having a conference title as such, because then you’re getting the clearest picture for where that team stands assuming things play out as expected and it doesn’t win its league. UCLA’s playing well, but if you’re a Bruins fan, something tells me you’d rather know what to expect if your team doesn’t win the Pac-12 since you obviously already know what to expect if it does.

That’s just my take on the matter; it’ll all iron itself out eventually. But, given the Pac-12-based nature of this site’s readership, I figured that explanation was worth giving.