ASU at UCLA Preview

Another week, another road game for the Sun Devils versus a ranked opponent but this time, the stakes are much higher than the contest ASU played in Provo, Utah, a couple of weeks ago. It wouldn’t be all that hyperbolic to declare the winner of this game as the team sitting in the driver’s seat for the race for the Pac-12 South’s championship. Let’s dissect Saturday’s contest in the Rose Bowl.

UCLA Offense

In many respects, Bruin quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson shares quite a few similarities with ASU’s Jayden Daniels. They were similarly rated prospects, as Thompson-Robinson was the No. 48 overall prospect and the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback in 2018, while Daniels was the No. 57 overall prospect and, like DTR, the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback in 2019.

They’ve both been multi-year starters in the Pac-12 South and have shown tremendous moments of flash, but even now, it’s still difficult to truly identify whether either player is an above average college quarterback, an excellent college quarterback with a limited professional ceiling, or a potentially elite college QB with a bright NFL future. Both players have shown all three qualities at various points throughout their respective careers.

Statistically, through four games, DTR has completed 57.3% of his passes for 919 yards (229.8 per game) with nine touchdowns and just one interception. On the ground, he’s rushed 45 times for 118 net yards with two scores.

After a ho-hum performance in UCLA’s blowout win over Hawaii in week one (10-of-20 passing, 130 yards, one touchdown, 16 net rushing yards), Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 260 yards against LSU, 278 against Fresno State, and 251 versus Stanford. On the ground in the past two weeks specifically, he’s rushed for 97 combined net yards with two scores last week.

DTR’s rushing has been a bit of an enigma over his Bruin career, as he had just 68 yards on 50 carries with no touchdowns as a freshman in 2018, then just 198 yards on 118 carries with four scores in 2019 but, in just five games, he had 306 yards on 55 carries (with at least 46 yards in every game and a high of 109 versus Colorado) with three touchdowns in the shortened 2020 season.

So, for his career, Thompson-Robinson has 690 net rush yards on 271 carries (2.6 avg.). In the past three games, he has 13 rush attempts against LSU, 13 versus Fresno State, and 16 against Stanford, so it stands to reason that he’ll be on the run at least a dozen times against ASU as well.

This week, eyes will be on DTR’s health status, as he was noticeably suffering from shoulder pains last week against Stanford. He has been practicing this week as normal, but Saturday will prove whether he has any physical limitations.

At running back, UCLA, quite frankly, has the one-two punch that ASU was hoping for in 2021 as it has two of the top six rushers in the Pac-12 Conference – both of which have a greater per-game rushing average than ASU’s team leader.

Of the myriad transfers across the conference in 2021, it is a safe statement that no single player has had a greater impact than Bruin running back Zach Charbonnet, who came to Pasadena from Michigan.

If the Pac-12 dished out an MVP trophy for the first third of the season, Charbonnet would be a highly viable candidate as he leads the conference in yards per carry (7.7), is tied for the league lead with seven rushing touchdowns, and is second in the Pac-12 with 360 rushing yards.

Charbonnet has surpassed 100 rushing yards in three of UCLA’s four games, has he totaled 106 yards on just six carries with three touchdowns against Hawaii, then 117 yards on 11 carries with a score against LSU, and most recently, 118 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown against Stanford. The only game in which he did not reach the century mark (Fresno State) saw him carry the ball only six times, but he still scored two touchdowns.

On a national scale, only four players have more rushing scores than Charbonnet’s seven touchdowns, and he ranks eighth in the country in yards-per-carry.

As a Wolverine, Charbonnet rushed 149 times for 726 yards with 11 touchdowns as a freshman in 2019 and then had 124 yards on 19 carries with a score as a sophomore last year.

Charbonnet isn’t the only one getting it done on the ground for the Bruins, as Brittain Brown – also a former transfer, having come to UCLA last year from Duke – ranks sixth in the Pac-12 in rushing (263 yards) and is tied for eighth in the league in yards per carry (5.6).

Brown has at least 60 rushing yards in three of UCLA’s four games as he had 78 yards on 13 carries with a touchdown against Hawaii, 96 yards on 17 carries with a score against LSU, and 66 yards on eight carries versus Stanford.

Last season, Brown had one of his better games of the year against ASU when he rushed for 94 yards on just seven carries. That would have been his best performance of the condensed season if not for a 219-yard explosion in UCLA’s double-OT contest against Stanford in 2020.

The duo of Charbonnet and Brown have combined for at least 180 rushing yards in three of four games so far, with Fresno State being the anomaly away from their otherwise impressive start.

Standout Kyle Philips remains one of the most talented and dynamic pass-catchers in the Pac-12 as he leads the conference with five touchdown catches and ranks first among all Pac-12 players with at least 14 receptions in yards-per-catch average (18.4) while standing third in the league in receiving yards (294).

Philips enters Saturday’s game with incredible momentum on the heels of back-to-back games with two touchdowns and at least 100 receiving yards. Last week against Stanford, he had five catches for 120 yards with two scores, and the previous week he had seven catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns. The 120 yards last week against Stanford were three away from tying his career-high. In all, Philips has notched five touchdown grabs in the past three games.

Texas A&M transfer Kam Brown and Chase Cota bring big-play capabilities to the wide receiver room as Brown has six catches for 127 yards (21.2 avg.) with a touchdown, and Cota has two receptions for 59 yards (29.5 avg.) with a score thus far in 2021.

One of the most productive tight ends in the nation, Greg Dulcich remains a problem with a ridiculous 25.3-yard average on seven catches (177 yards) with a touchdown. His 177 receiving yards are tops among all Pac-12 tight ends to date in 2021.

Dulcich was a key figure in UCLA’s upset of No. 16 LSU with 117 yards – his third career 100-yard game – on just three catches, including a 75-yard touchdown. In 2020, Dulcich averaged 19.9 yards on 26 receptions (517 yards), with five scores in just seven games.

On the offensive line, tackle Sean Rhyan, Villanova transfer guard Paul Grattan and tackle Alec Anderson have started all four games at their typical positions, while Jon Gaines started the first two at center and the most recent two at guard. Atonio Mafi started the first two games of the season at guard before Gaines replaced him, and Sam Marrazzo moved to the starting center position the past two games upon Gaines’ relocation.

UCLA Offense Summary

UCLA figures to follow a game plan of riding the run game of Charbonnet and Brown to open up big downfield pass plays to Philips and Dulcich while also allowing running lanes for Thompson-Robinson – a script not too terribly dissimilar to what BYU was able to accomplish two weeks ago.

In terms of scoring production, UCLA has hovered around its average each game this season with 44 points against Hawaii, 38 against LSU, 37 versus Fresno State, and 35 against Stanford, so this is not a case of a program dumping points on an early season FCS opponent to skew its per-game average.

Though the Bruins rank second in the Pac-12 in scoring average (38.5) behind Oregon, UCLA is the only team in the league to have scored at least 35 points in every game it has played thus far in 2021.

This game will feature the proverbial strength-versus-strength as UCLA ranks 26th nationally in scoring offense – and half-a-point away from being inside the top-18 – while ASU is tied for 20th nationally in scoring defense (16.0).

Another strength-versus-strength lies in UCLA’s fourth-place national ranking in passing yards per completion at 17.68. As good as that is, the number one (Army, 11 completions in four games) and Air Force (14 in four) throw the ball much less than the 53 completions made by the Bruins so far, so UCLA on some levels can be considered even more effective in this category than its already impressive fourth-place rating. ASU currently ranks fifth nationally in passing yards allowed per game (124.2) and 19th in passing yards per completion (10.14).

UCLA Defense

Per usual (if memory serves), UCLA does not release a weekly depth chart – which is super chill and totally tight and makes life easy for this week – so we’ll just wing it and go off what the lineups have looked like through the first four games!

Otito Ogbonnia and Datona Jackson have been typical starters on the defensive line. Jackson has ten tackles and a team-high 2.5 sacks, while Ogobnnia has seven tackles, including 1.5 for loss.

Linebackers Mitchell Agude, Notre Dame transfer Jordan Genmark Heath, North Texas transfer Caleb Johnson and Bo Calvert have started all four games at linebacker.

Agude ranks second on the team with 18 total tackles and is tied for the national lead with four forced fumbles. Genmark Heath is tied for fourth on the team with 14 tackles, while Johnson is right behind with 13. Calvert has 11 total tackles and ranks second on the team in TFLs (2.5) and sacks (2.0).

In the secondary, at cornerback Cameron Johnson has started all four games, with Stanford transfer Obi Eboh starting three and Mo Osling III starting one.

Kent State transfer Qwuantrezz Knight has started all four games as the nickel defensive back, with Stephan Blaylock starting all four at strong safety with Quentin Lake starting three at strong safety and Phoenix native Kenny Churchwell III starting last week in place of Lake.

Knight, who played against ASU as a part of the Kent State program in 2019 prior to joining UCLA last year, leads the team with 26 total tackles and has a team-best 4.5 tackles-for-loss. He also has 1.5 sacks, a pass breakup, and a forced fumble and appears to be trending toward all-conference accolades.

Despite only starting one of three games, Osling ranks third on the team with 15 total tackles and has two pass breakups.

Lake has 13 tackles and a team-high three pass breakups, while Blaylock has 12 tackles and Johnson has nine. Churchwell has five tackles and an interception.

UCLA Defense Summary

The Bruin defense is an absolute Jekyll and Hyde situation as UCLA has a top-five national rush defense with a bottom-five pass defense.

First, the good (from the Bruin perspective), UCLA allows a mere 64.0 rushing yards per game at 2.44 yards per carry with three touchdowns allowed on the ground through four games. UCLA ranks fifth nationally in team rush defense and tied for 10th in yards-per-carry allowed.

Now, the good (from the Sun Devil perspective) is UCLA’s 126th (of 130) national ranking in team pass defense, as the Bruins are the worst Power Five program in the area thus far in 2021 by allowing 330.2 passing yards per game.

Altogether, the up-and-down nature of the Bruin defense has planted UCLA with the No. 81 total defense (394.2) in the country and the No. 78 scoring defense in the land (25.25).

So, what do the Sun Devils do? Do they play to their offensive strength and challenge the stout Bruin run defense or do they aim toward UCLA’s deficiency and lean upon what is undoubtedly still a “work in progress” Arizona State pass game?

UCLA Special Teams

In the kicking game, punter Luke Akers averages 44.6 yards on 19 punts, while placekicker Nicholas Barr-Mira has connected on 3-of-4 attempts with a long of 43.

Kyle Philips, this past week’s Pac-12 Special Teams Player of the Week, averages 24.0 yards on four punt returns with a long of 59. Kasmeir Allen, also a dynamic pass-catcher, averages 27.7 yards on seven kick returns.

Overall Summary

Is this the most significant game to date for Herm Edwards at ASU? Think about it because it just might be.

Sure, retrospectively, wins at Michigan State and against Oregon in 2019 and against Michigan and Utah in 2018, as well as three straight victories over Arizona, all have lasting sentimental value, but as memorable as those games were, they did not prove to catapult the Sun Devils to a better than usual outcome at the end of the season.

In such a tumultuous time for the program with a team that we still can’t quite identify after four games and a few weeks inside the top-25, a victory in one of the most famous sports facilities in the world could be the proverbial “signature” victory at a time it is dearly needed for Edwards and staff.

Naturally, even a best-case scenario dominant road victory can easily be tarnished by a lack of continued success throughout the remainder of the season, but a win on Saturday also could be a much-needed leap in the right direction toward ASU’s goal of winning its division and conference.

Without a doubt, the winner of this game will – at least until next week – be considered the clubhouse favorite to win the south division, though, of course, that’s a bit of a comical consideration before the midway point of the season. But…still.

UCLA – even the bad versions of the program of late – has been a huge thorn in the side of ASU as the Bruins have won back-to-back games in the series and two of three. The Sun Devils have not won in Pasadena since upsetting a top-10 Bruin squad in 2015, a game capped off by the memorable touchdown scrum by former ASU running back Kalen Ballage.

All told, ASU has only won twice in Pasadena since the start of the 2008 season, albeit one of them coming in the form of one of the most significant wins in recent program history when ASU clinched the south division title at UCLA in 2013.

For ASU to win, it will need to shut down UCLA’s group of highly talented skill players, or the Sun Devils will have to have an offensive explosion unlike any through the first four games. If either happens – or ideally, both – and the Sun Devils claim a victory, the Arizona State fan base will certainly be rejuvenated with substantiated hope that ASU is, in fact, a legitimate conference contender.

A win also gives ASU a solid chance to jump back into the top-25 as the Bruins carry a No. 20 spot in the Associated Press poll.

That said, suffering a third straight loss in the Rose Bowl to the Bruins will, of course, give ASU its second loss of the season after just five games – a total many thought the Devils might have at the end of the regular season with a 10-2 finish. Intangibly, that could shake up the psyche of this team to the degree that causes a greater unraveling of concerns.

It also just seems logical to think that ASU won’t overcome an early sluggish effort to outlast the Bruins as the Sun Devils have done against more than one inferior opponent through the first four games – and it seems to be a certainty ASU can’t commit double-digit penalties and cough up multiple turnovers as it did at BYU – so ASU will need to shake off some of the demons that have caused varying degrees of self-inflicted damage through the first one-third of the 2021 season.

Though, if a loss is to happen, keep in mind ASU started 3-2 and 1-1 in conference play in 2013 before a seven-game streak to end the year as the Sun Devils claimed the Pac-12 South title.

With the exception of Arizona and Colorado, it is honestly difficult to tell how good or bad the remaining four teams in the Pac-12 South are – though, any hope for USC appears to be paper-thin at this point after a historic home loss to Oregon State.

This uncertainty, at least for now, means that no team can be taken lightly, and it can’t be assumed that an early-season division defeat can easily be balanced by future wins against other teams.

Familiar Faces

· ASU RB Rachaad White was verbally committed to UCLA before signing with ASU

· UCLA DB Kenny Churchwell (Phoenix Mountain Pointe HS), OL Bruno Fina (Tucson Salpointe Catholic HS), DL Odua Isibor (Phoenix St. Mary’s HS), DB Isaiah Newcombe (Queen Creek Casteel HS), LB Joquarri Price (Mesa Desert Ridge HS), LB Damian Sellers (Scottsdale Saguaro HS), DL Quintin Somerville (Scottsdale Saguaro HS) and LB Jeremiah Trojan (Chandler Hamilton HS) are Arizona natives

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