There is little doubt that no Pac-12 team got affected by COVID-19 more than Arizona State did, but this 2020 season has hardly been a picnic for its in-state rival. Both programs are seeking their first win this year, but who stands a better chance of earning that elusive victory? Here’s our examination of this contest.

Arizona Offense

Entering the 2020 season, most hopes for Arizona to right the ship under Kevin Sumlin rested on the throwing arm of Grant Gunnell, a high-profile recruit from the 2019 class who entered his sophomore season as the unquestioned starter after the graduation of Khalil Tate.

Gunnell showed his potential early, passing for 286 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 40 net yards against USC in a game that almost resulted in a win for Arizona. Though that game resulted in a frustrating loss for the Wildcats, Gunnell appeared to show what was expected of him entering the 2020 season – that is the real deal and perhaps the team’s most talented true quarterback since Nick Foles.

A shoulder injury suffered on Arizona’s first offensive snap in game three against UCLA has since sidelined Gunnell, paving the way for true freshman Will Plummer to play the rest of the way.

In the two games, he has started and finished this year, Gunnell threw for 545 yards with six touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for 78 net yards.

Plummer, a Gilbert High School product, has completed 36-of-67 passes for 305 yards with no touchdowns – passing or rushing – but three interceptions. He has shown mobility as a rusher, tallying 78 net rush yards on 26 carries in two games despite losing 46 yards primarily due to sacks. He made his first career collegiate start last week against Colorado and threw for 154 yards with an interception, ran for 29 net yards, and was sacked five times.

As can be expected of a true freshman quarterback thrust into the starting lineup – especially in the chaotic world of 2020 – Plummer has shown some flashes but also limitations.

No official word has been given about Gunnell’s availability for Friday, and he technically is listed as the starting quarterback on this week’s depth chart, but that could just be rivalry week gamesmanship.

On the ground, running back Gary Brightwell has been perhaps the teams most significant offensive threat as he has rushed for 341 yards on 71 carries (4.8 avg.) with a touchdown in four games.

Behind him, Michael Wiley has emerged as a dynamic running threat as though he only has 22 carries in four games; he averages an outstanding 8.8 yards per carry and has 180 total rushing yards with a team-best two rushing touchdowns.

Brightwell has two 100-yard games on the season and last week against Colorado, both Brightwell and Wiley surpassed triple digits as Brightwell notched 22 carries for 117 yards and a score, and Wiley had 122 yards on just seven carries, including a 45-yard run.

Last season, Brightwell had five carries for 22 yards against ASU after posting four carries for 36 yards, including a 35-yard touchdown scamper against the Sun Devils in 2018.

At receiver, Stanley Berryhill III is the clear-cut preferred target of all Wildcat quarterbacks as he has 21 receptions for 2016 yards and three of the six touchdown catches the team has collected.

There is a sizeable gap between Berryhill’s productivity and the next man up, as Boobie Currie and Brightwell tie for the second-most receptions (10). Tayvian Cunningham ranks second on the team with 129 receiving yards, but 75 of those came on a single play.

Jamarye Joiner (nine catches, 97 yards, one touchdown) and impressive true freshman Ma’jon Wright (seven catches, 91 yards, one touchdown) as well as Brian Casteel (seven catches, 93 yards) are also among the team’s top pass-catchers.

Joiner was the main bright spot for the Wildcats in last year’s Territorial Cup game, as he had seven catches for 140 yards and two touchdowns – all three of which by far and away remain career highs, as his second-best receiving day of his career was a four-catch, 72-yard effort at Hawaii in the 2019 season opener.

The offensive line has been a tremendous concern for Arizona in the team’s first four games of 2020, as the Wildcats have allowed 16 total sacks through those first four contests.

Donovan Laie has started all four games on the left side – the first three at guard, the fourth at tackle – while Josh McCauley has started all four at center, as have Robert Congel at right guard and Paiton Fears at right tackle.

Three different players have started at left tackle – Jordan Morgan the first two games, Tyson Gardner in the third before Laie last week. Josh Donovan started at left guard a week ago when Laie was kicked out to tackle.

The depth chart for this weeks’ game lists Morgan, Laie, McCauley, either Congel or Donovan, and Fears as the left-to-right offensive line.

Arizona Offense Summary

For the second consecutive week, ASU faces the unknown regarding whether the opposing starting quarterback will return after two missed weeks or if the Sun Devils will face a backup quarterback.

The Wildcat offense is understandably much different with Gunnell in the lineup compared to when he is not, as Arizona averages 272.5 passing yards per game with its typical starter and 152.5 passing yards per game with his backup. Equally notable is the comparison of touchdowns to interceptions between the two, as Gunnell has thrown six scores with one pick while Plummer has yet to find the end zone but has tossed three turnovers.

Regardless, Arizona may have a “go for broke” mentality and try to generate offense by any means necessary – which could include some uncharacteristic ideas and players.

Ultimately, ASU needs to make sure Brightwell and Wiley aren’t given room to scatter across the field – especially if Plummer starts and the Wildcats are more pressed to rely on the ground game.

The Sun Devils can create a distinct advantage by playing to their own primary strength on defense – and coincidentally at the same time attacking Arizona’s greatest offensive weakness – by pressuring the quarterback.

Arizona Defense

In Arizona’s three-man front, nose tackle Roy Lopez, a New Mexico State grad transfer from Tempe starts along with New Mexico grad transfer Aaron Blackwell and sophomore Kyon Barrs.

Barrs and Lopez both have 16 tackles on the year, with Lopez ranking second on the team with 3.0 tackles-for-loss. Blackwell, who played at Peoria’s Liberty High School and at Mesa Community College has six tackles, including two for loss.

Of the trio, Lopez is the only one to have started all four games this year as Barrs and Blackwell have each started three of four.

Anthony Pandy starts at WILL linebacker and is one of the team’s standout defenders, while Rourke Freeburg starts at SAM and Parker Henley at MIKE, with Jalen Harris at the BUCK position.

Pandy has a team-high 28 tackles and two interceptions, both of which he caught last week against Colorado. Freeburg ranks fourth on the team with 19 tackles, including a team-high 3.5 for loss. Harris has registered 15 tackles, including 2.5 for loss in three games, while Henley has 10 tackles on the year.

Pandy and Freeburg have started all four games this year, while Henley and Harris both started the first three but did not start last week.

Freeburg (Scottsdale Desert Mountain High School), Henley (Chandler High School) and Harris (Mesa Desert Ridge High School) all come from Maricopa county areas not very far from ASU.

In the secondary, Lorenzo Burns, the team’s most experienced defender, starts at cornerback along with Christian Roland-Wallace, while Jaxen Turner and either Rhedi Short or Jarrius Wallace will start at safety.

The group of Burns, Roland-Wallace, Short, and Turner has started each of the four games thus far in 2020.

Burns ranks third on the team with 23 tackles, while Roland-Wallace has a team-high three pass breakups to go along with 19 tackles. Short ranks second on the team with 26 tackles, while Turner has 18, and Wallace has two tackles in just one game played.

Arizona Defense Summary

Hampered by three transfers of key multi-year starters prior to the start of the season, year one under coordinator Paul Rhoads has been a challenge, to say the least.

Statistically, the Wildcats allow 32.3 points per game and a miserable 273.5 rushing yards per game, 6.1 yards per carry, and 12 rushing touchdowns allowed. It cannot be highlighted, stressed, yelled, tattooed, or otherwise emphasized enough – Arizona State should use its run game immediately, continuously and without end until the Wildcats show some semblance of ability to stop the run.

Last week, Colorado exceeded 400 rushing yards as a team, with Jarek Broussard topping 300 yards by his lonesome. The previous week. UCLA’s Demetric Felton surpassed the 200-yard rushing mark, creating tremendous potential for ASU to have a massive game on the ground.

The pass defense numbers look good on paper – 196.3 yards allowed per game with four touchdowns – but teams simply have had the luxury of being able to run up and down the field on the Wildcats. In Arizona’s opener, USC’s Kedon Slovis had 325 passing yards with a touchdown.

The Wildcats also aren’t balancing inefficiencies with big plays, as Arizona only has posted two total sacks in four games and is on the short end of a 5-to-3 turnover deficit on the year.

Arizona Special Teams

Kicker Lucas Havrisik has connected on 6-of-7 field-goal attempts this year and also kicks off for the Wildcats. In a game that often comes down to placekicking, though Havrisik has been spot-on this year, he missed both his field goal attempts (47 and 26) last season against ASU.

Freshman punter Tyler Loop averages 42.5 yards on 21 punts with a long of 55 yards.

Jamarye Joiner averages 8.8 yards on four punt returns and is also one of the team’s primary kickoff returners along with Tayvian Cunningham, who averages 20.3 yards on eight kick returns.

Overall Summary

In a football season that has sadly lost most of its meaning for Arizona State due to three game cancellations, a few historic superlatives are on the line in this Friday’s Territorial Cup game – a matchup that should always receive peak intensity and focus from players no matter what evens transpire during the season leading up to it.

First, no Sun Devil head coach has won his first three Territorial Cup matchups. Not Frank Kush, Not Dan Devine, Not Todd Graham – nobody. Wins for Herm Edwards in 2018 and 2019 set the table for him to take sole claim of that piece of Arizona State football history.

Also, with wins against Arizona the past three years, the Sun Devils can claim four consecutive victories over the Wildcats for the first time since 1975-78. That gap of time, of course, tells us that ASU has never beaten Arizona four straight times while the programs have been members of the Pac-10/12 Conference.

Though the overall meaning of this 2020 season is undoubtedly far lower than average, the outcome of this game can have lasting significance beyond bragging rights among the in-state rivals. If Kevin Sumlin drops a fourth straight game to his rival, it is possible that his way out of Tucson could come sooner rather than later. Likewise, after two gut-wrenching losses in the first games of 2020 for Arizona State, a loss to Arizona could sour some fans on the future of the program – now whether that is a logical stance for a person to have is debatable, but it undoubtedly will happen to a certain degree if ASU happens to lose Friday.

In the end, if ASU can play to its strengths – particularly, rushing the ball on offense and rushing the quarterback on defense – and if the Sun Devils aren’t at all “checked out” after two losses and little overall meaning to the season other than this game, then Arizona State should be able to handle matters in Tucson with relatively little tension.

However, in this particular rivalry game, not always do things go as logic would script, and in this chaotic year of 2020, that which is logical can never be considered a guarantee to happen.

Key to a Sun Devil Victory

RUN THE DAMN BALL.

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